Eurozone growth figures are stronger than first estimated, but a big fall in Chinese imports and exports show its economy remains shaky * Latest: Eurozone grew by 0.4% in Q2 * Introduction: Chinese imports slide 13% * Shanghai market slides, then bounces * Analysts blame global slowdown * Nikkei falls 2.4% in nervous trading 2.16pm BST HERE’S ONE FOR THE DAREDEVIL BOND TRADERS AMONG YOU - IRAQ IS GETTING READY TO ISSUE BONDS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NINE YEARS. Officials from the Iraqi government will meet with City bankers on Thursday to gauge interest. They want to raise funds to cover its budget deficit, triggered by the cost of fighting Islamic State militants and the falling oil price. Despite the political risks in Iraq, its status as OPEC’s second biggest oil producer is expected to ensure buyers for its debt; its huge southern oil fields have not been directly touched by the fighting, and it has embarked on an ambitious multi-year plan to raise crude output. Baghdad is expected to pay a high price for its borrowing, however; Iraq’s outstanding US dollar bond maturing in 2028 is trading at a yield of 10.37%. Neither ISIS, the oil price nor EM shakeout can stop the machine. Iraq bringing bonds to market. 2.04pm BST Staff at the Moscow stock exchange are racing to restart trading using a back-up system, CNBC reports: Moscow stock exchange says it halted trading 1 hr ago after "network equipment" failure, preparing to restart trading on backup system. 1.57pm BST MOSCOW’S STOCK MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE SUFFERED AN UNEXPECTED PROBLEM. Trading on the bourse was temporarily suspended a few minutes ago, with reports of an “emergency situation”. Moscow Stock Exchange has closed due to emergency situation,, wonder what that can be #stockmarket #forextrading #investing #moscow 1.37pm BST EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS HAVE PUSHED HIGHER TODAY, THANKS TO THE UPGRADED EUROZONE GROWTH FIGURES. Germany’s record-breaking trade figures also cheered investors, following the news of China’s slumping imports. Following further contraction in Chinese trade terms in August, the European and the US stock indices painted the equity picture in green on strengthening belief that central banks’ would not dare taking their hands off the blurry financial markets in the immediate future. 12.33pm BST ALMOST EVERY POLL IN GREECE NOW SHOWS FORMER RULING SYRIZA NECK AND NECK WITH CENTRE RIGHT NEW DEMOCRACY. You are stupid. I have studied at the London School of Economics, what shit have you done?” 12.29pm BST WITH JUST 12 DAYS UNTIL THE GREEK GENERAL ELECTION, POLITICAL PARTIES ARE RELEASING UNUSUALLY LIGHT-HEARTED TV ADS. A prime example is the 37-second ‘campaign’ trailer put out by the anti- austerity anti-euro group Popular Unity this morning. See p/t - Where to, mister? - The national mint. - Don't listen to their shouting. We have anti-memorandum solutions. Learn about them. 11.54am BST TIMO DEL CARPIO, EUROPEAN ECONOMIST AT RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SEES “RATHER ENCOURAGING” SIGNS IN TODAY’S GDP FIGURES: As we had expected, private consumption provided an important impulse behind the recovery in the second quarter of 2015 (as it has for the last nine quarters). But this time around, it was also accompanied by a measurable boost from net trade, which added +0.3pp to top-line growth. At first glance this might seem somewhat out of whack with the signs of weakness in certain emerging market trading partners. However, we think it is consistent with the view that, in the short-term, that weakness should be offset by the growing recovery in other advanced economies. 11.18am BST TODAY’S GROWTH DATA IS “A DOUBLE DOSE OF MODEST GOOD NEWS” FOR THE EUROZONE, SAYS HOWARD ARCHER OF IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT. He points out that year-on-year eurozone growth hit a four-year high of 1.5% in the second quarter, up from from 1.2% in the first thee months of 2015. The euro and oil prices remained at highly supportive levels to Eurozone growth in the second quarter, although they were above their first quarter lows. However, the Eurozone’s ability to kick on may well have been hampered by heightened uncertainty weighing down on business and consumer confidence as the Greek crisis came to a head and concerns over global growth increased. 11.06am BST EVEN WITH TODAY’S UPWARD REVISIONS, THE EUROZONE’S GROWTH RATE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MODEST. Growth rates of 0.5% in Q1, and 0.4% in Q2, are still modest by international standards, especially given the boost from cheap energy prices and the ECB’s QE programme. 10.58am BST Today’s data revisions show the eurozone’s recovery is on stronger foundations, argues Bloomberg’s MAXIME SBAIHI. Euro area GDP revised up in both Q1 & Q2. Carry-over growth now at 1%. Domestic forces look strong enough to keep region on recovery course 10.49am BST More good news: The eurozone’s growth in the first three month of 2015 has also been revised higher, from 0.4% to 0.5%. 10.46am BST THE EUROZONE IS GROWING FASTER THAN THOUGHT, AFTER STATISTICS BODY EUROSTAT REVISED ITS GDP FIGURES FOR THE LAST QUARTER. GDP increased by 0.4% in the April-June period, not the 0.3% first estimated three weeks ago. Euro area GDP +0.4% in Q2 2015, +1.5% compared with Q2 2014 #Eurostat http://t.co/E6qgq5NMIK pic.twitter.com/cADkTm5L43 10.19am BST GERMANY IS CALMING SOME OF THE WORRIES ABOUT CHINA, BY REPORTING RECORD-BREAKING TRADE FIGURES FOR JULY. Seasonally adjusted German exports climbed by 2.4% month-on-month, to €103.4bn, while imports grew 2.2% to €80.6bn. That’s the biggest readings since 1991 (after reunification) when the survey began, and much stronger than economists expected. 10.03am BST BACK IN THE UK, HOTELS AND COFFEE CHAIN WHITBREAD HAS WARNED IT MAY RAISE PRICES TO COVER THE COST OF IMPLEMENTING THE NEW “NATIONAL LIVING WAGE”. Chancellor George Osborne announced in July’s budget that the £6.50 minimum wage (for over 25s) will rise to £7.20 from next April, and reach £9.35 an hour by 2010. Related: Costa Coffee owner to raise prices in response to national living wage GOOD! I don't want cheap coffee if = someone not paid properly. Whitbread plans price rises to pay for living wage http://t.co/Umzp6GfCFY 9.21am BST THE DECLINE IN CHINA’S IMPORTS WILL HAVE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR OTHER COUNTRIES, POINTS OUT FXTM RESEARCH ANALYST LUKMAN OTUNUG: The China trade figures released overnight continued to highlight further weakness in the China economy, with both exports and imports declining. The continual decline in imports suggests that China is shifting away from an import dependent nation to one which is encouraging consumers to look more within the domestic market for its products and services. This change in approach will translate to further weakness for economies that have become dependent on demand from China. 9.20am BST FACT OF THE MORNING: BEIJING HAS NOW SPENT SOME $236BN SUPPORTING ITS STOCK MARKET SINCE JUNE. That’s according to Goldman Sachs analysts, who say China’s “National Team” pumped $94bn into shares in August alone, in an attempt to manage the selloff. Since Chinese market started falling out of bed, govt has splashed $236b trying to prop it up = @GoldmanSachs . >Peru or Portugal GDP/year 8.50am BST IN THE CITY, SHARES IN INSURANCE FIRM AMLIN HAVE SURGED BY 32% AFTER JAPAN’S MITSUI SUMITOMO INSURANCE ANNOUNCED A £3.46BN TAKEOVER DEAL. Amlin shares are trading at 655p, close to the 670p offer price, suggesting the deal is expected to go through. Pound surges against yen after Japanese firm said it would buy U.K. insurer Amlin http://t.co/frUZA2T00f pic.twitter.com/s7C64JLtUt 8.38am BST ANOTHER WILD DAY’S TRADING IN SHANGHAI HAS ENDED, WITH THE STOCK MARKET UP 3%. Quite a turnaround. Shanghai stocks now up 3% Shenzhen +4% Earlier: Shanghai: -2.3% Shenzhen: -1.8% 8.35am BST EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS AREN’T TOO BOTHERED BY THE CHINESE TRADE DATA. The main indices are all up around 1% in early trading: It’s been another positive start for trade in London this morning with traders clearly not feeling too unnerved by those weaker than expected trade figures out of China. Perhaps most worrying is the 13% slump in imports, but with commodity prices seeming to have found something of a floor of late, many mining stocks are once again floating towards the upper end of the index. 8.14am BST CHINA HAS FOUND AN INNOVATIVE WAY OF PREVENTING ANY MORE BLACK MONDAYS - CLOSE THE STOCK MARKET WHEN SHARES FALL (OR RISE) TOO MUCH, AND SEND EVERYONE HOME. China is planning a “circuit breaker” mechanism to prevent any further losses on its volatile stock markets as both of the country’s leading indexes continued to slide. According to draft regulation, trading would be suspended for 30 minutes when the market rose or fell by 5%. If the index went up or down by 7% or more, trading would be suspended for the day. Related: China plans stock market 'circuit breaker' to curb volatility 8.04am BST ECONOMISTS ARE CONCERNED BY THE FALL IN CHINESE IMPORTS AND EXPORTS LAST MONTH. MA GUANGYUAN, an independent Chinese economist, says the economic picture is deteriorating. “The August data followed the trend set in July. Now the global slowdown has very much become a reality.” “China is set to miss its export growth target for this year, and there will be no help from the external demand side for economic growth.” 7.55am BST EMERGING MARKET CURRENCIES ARE ALSO WEAKENING TODAY, AS FEARS OF A CHINESE SLOWDOWN REVERBERATE. The Malaysian ringgit has hit a new 17-year low against the US dollar today, amid concerns that American interest rates could soon rise . Asia crisis 2.0: Ringgit falls for fifth day on lower oil, #China growth concern. http://t.co/qgAEEa18DG pic.twitter.com/6QyWdifXFX 7.53am BST INVESTORS IN TOKYO BAULKED AT THE CHINESE TRADE DATA TOO. Japan’s Nikkei fell by 2.4% by the close of trading, as nervous traders pushed up the value of the yen (which hurts exporters). That means the index has lost all its gains this year. 7.50am BST THE SHANGHAI STOCK MARKET DROPPED INTO THE RED AFTER TODAY’S TRADE DATA WAS RELEASED. Curiously, though, it’s now rallying in late trading, suggesting the Chinese authorities may be intervening.... And the "invisible hand" again guiding Chinese stocks higher in the last hour...CSI 300 rallies 4% - 30 min. to close pic.twitter.com/ImPDGFPLOZ 7.39am BST GOOD MORNING, AND WELCOME TO OUR ROLLING COVERAGE OF THE WORLD ECONOMY, THE FINANCIAL MARKETS, THE EUROZONE AND BUSINESS. If you’re not worried about the China’s economy yet, it might be time to start. Our European opening calls: $FTSE 6085 up 10 $DAX 10137 up 28 $CAC 4559 up 10 $IBEX 9815 up 10 $MIB 21687 up 64 Futures markets picking up...#Europe looks set for higher open & US could see +1% gains pic.twitter.com/BAwJG2Khrh Continue reading...
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