Whether it’s the yuan or the euro, the lesson of history is that the currency should be arranged around the economy. Not the other way aroundHistory is littered with upside-down verdicts about exchange rates. In the Britain of 1925, for example, there were misguided cheers when Churchill pushed industry into the doldrums by pretending the first world war had never happened, and forcing sterling back up to its 1914 parity. In 1992, misguided tears accompanied the UK’s inelegant tumble out of the exchange rate mechanism, a long-dreaded devaluation which proved a terrific stimulus for recovery. In this week’s headlines, currency gyrations have once again been causing confusion.Greece was said to have shuffled “back from the edge” by clinging on to the euro, while China, by pushing the yuan’s value down, was described as pushing the world “to the brink” of a currency war. The real contrast cannot be measured in steps from any precipice. It is between Athens reordering a stricken economy around a currency, and Beijing rearranging its money to fit in with the needs of its economy. By signing up to the fresh dose of austerity, which the Greek parliamenton Friday accepted as the price of remaining in the single currency club, Alexis Tsipras’s leftwing government has fallen into line with respectable financial opinion, while submitting its families and factories to disruptive adjustments. But Beijing displayed disdain for the expectation of the currency markets, as it moved to shore up the stability of Chinese business. Continue reading...
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