Greek prime minister defends emergency plans for GrexitTroika talks begin in Athens to thrash out details of €86bn bailoutNew round of talks comes just hours after Tsipras sees off Syriza rebelsEurozone unemployment stable at 11.1%Italian youth unemployment at record high of 44.2%Chinese shares suffer worst month in six years 11.06am BST The sharp rise in the value of the Swiss franc against the euro has pushed Switzerland’s central bank into a first-half loss of 50bn francs (£33bn). This includes 47.2bn francs of foreign-exchange losses.The Swiss National Bank, which is owned by the government, said this could affect its ability to pay a dividend this year. 11.04am BST Danae Kyriakopoulou, senior economist at the Centre for Economics and Business Research, has also looked at eurozone unemployment.As usual, the overall figure masks vast differences among the member-states of the currency union, with the rate ranging from 25.6% in Greece to just 4.7% in Germany. However, signs of convergence are emerging, especially from Iberia: Spain and Portugal saw some of the largest decreases in the unemployment rate this month, from 24.5% to 22.5% and from 14.3% to 12.4% respectively. Still, the gap between core and periphery remains fairly wide and will take a long time to close, if it ever does, under the current institutional set-up of the currency area.Part of the reason behind this becomes clear when looking at unit labour costs across the bloc: Between the introduction of the euro in 2000 and the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, labour costs in the Eurozone periphery increased markedly. Ireland for example saw unit labour costs rise by almost 30%, while Greece and Italy recorded rises of around 15%. Germany, meanwhile, saw unit labour costs decline consistently over time. In the absence of exchange rate flexibility, the path of fiscal austerity and internal devaluation (cutting wages) was followed to bring down unit labour costs in the periphery. While this has led to some degree of adjustment in recent years, labour costs in Greece, Spain, and Ireland remain fairly close to or above their 2000 levels. The picture in Italy is even worse, where no real adjustment in unit labour costs has been seen. Italian unemployment increased from 12.4% to 12.7% in June.” 10.48am BST ING economist Bert Colijn says the 31,000 rise in eurozone unemployment in June, which left the rate at 11.1% for the third month in a row, is a “disappointing result as it was the first increase in the number of unemployed this year”.The increase was mostly due to Italy, which saw a jump in unemployment of 55k people, while most other European economies experienced declines. France saw a marginal increase, while unemployment in Germany, Spain and Netherlands continued to decline, indicating that the labour market is strengthening. The jump in the Italian unemployment rate to 12.7 percent is concerning, but business surveys indicate that a turnaround in employment growth in Italy could be around the corner as many businesses are planning on hiring. Economic conditions are also not in line with continued increases in unemployment for the rest of the year.Overall, the trend in the European labour market remains one of continued slow recovery, which is normal for post-recession recoveries in the euro area. Even though the pace of job recovery is too slow to put a significant dent in high unemployment rates across the monetary union at the moment, there are positives to note. The economy is profiting from slowly improving employment and faster wage growth, which is boosting domestic demand. Especially in the current slow inflation environment, real wages are growing at pre-2008 pace, which is strengthening the recovery. This in turn will help further improvements in unemployment. Job vacancy rates in Europe are also slowly improving, pointing towards a moderate tightening of the market. Expectations are that the current trend of unemployment declines will be continued throughout the year, as the European economy continues to recover. This will not be enough to bring the unemployment rate into single digits before the end of the year, but will help to support the economy moderately. 10.39am BST Here’s a question about the rise in Italian youth unemployment to a record high of 44%:People who know more abt Italy than me —what's this down to? OECD says France has stricter employment protection, but much lower youth unemp 10.37am BST In Greece, retail sales rose 4.2% in May from the same month a year earlier, according to the country’s statistics service Elstat. Sales volumes increased for five months in a row as consumer spending picked up – but this was before the latest debt crisis that engulfed the country and brought the economy to a standstill.Greece’s economy staged a recovery last year after six years of sharp contraction, but has dipped back into recession since then. Retail sales slumped by 40% between 2009 and 2014 amid record unemployment and austerity policies. 10.29am BST Here are some general thoughts on the eurozone. Can the eurozone put the genie back in the bottle? ask researchers at Oxford Economics.The recent leg of the Greek crisis has once again exposed the problems of monetary union without closer fiscal and political ties. But although the troubles have prompted a wave of visions, demands and pledges of closer integration, major divisions remain on the size, form and ordering of such measures. Unless significant concessions are made, the risk of Eurozone fragmentation will build.While recent negotiations between Greece and the eurozone have undoubtedly left lasting wounds, one source of encouragement is that pretty much every policymaker agrees that the region needs to respond by undertaking further integration. However, the problem is that integration means all things to all people. 10.21am BST Here’s a chart that shows how Italian youth unemployment has rocketed in recent years:Italy's youth unemployment skyrockets to 44.2% (+1.9 percentage pts in a month) in June pic.twitter.com/bbLHx4K8V0 10.17am BST We’ve just spotted pics of former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis in an extremely snazzy shirt...Επικό τρολάρισμα #vouli pic.twitter.com/Z9oInuqhuW 10.11am BST Youth unemployment: Some 4.7m young people (under 25) were unemployed in the EU last month, of whom 3.2m were in the euro area. 10.09am BST Eurostat estimates that 23.3m people were out of work across the EU last month, including 17.8m in the euro area. The lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Germany (4.7%) and the Czech Republic (4.9%), and the highest in Greece (25.6% in April 2015) and Spain (22.5%). 10.07am BST Unemployment in the 28-nation EU was 9.6% in June, also unchanged from May.Euro area unemployment rate at 11.1% and EU at 9.6% in June 2015 #Eurostat http://t.co/bzkOr8pSz7 pic.twitter.com/syzb6qnJ0b 10.02am BST Unemployment in the eurozone remained at 11.1% in June, according to Eurostat.Inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro was stable at 0.2% in July, still far off the European Central Bank’s target. 9.52am BST Eurozone unemployment data are out at 10am London time. Italian figures have shown a jump in youth unemployment to a record high of 44.2%.Overall, Italy’s jobless rate rose unexpectedly in June to 12.7% from a revised 12.5% in May, according to official figures.Italian youth unemployment jumps to record high 44.2%. It's OK though, biggest fall in bond yields since April 2013: pic.twitter.com/Jx5jIpTRvu 9.31am BST Over in Athens, Tsipras is answering questions in parliament about the parallel payment system set up in the event of “Grexit”. He has denied that his government had a “secret plan” to take Greece out of the euro.The Greek prime minister confirmed that he authorised his former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis to draw up contingency plans in case the country was forced to leave the euro, calling it the obligation of a responsible government, Reuters reports. He told parliament:We didn’t design or have a plan to pull the country out of the euro, but we did have emergency plans. If our partners and lenders had prepared a Grexit plan, shouldn’t we as a government have prepared our defense?”Tsipras: if we had a secret plan with Varoufakis then why didn't we implement it? Why didn't we go for a Grexit with 62% of No?'Next time you go looking for scandals, take a look at your own party,' #Tsipras tells PASOK's Gennimata #Greece#Tsipas just admitted the existence of the Plan B of #Varoufakis @BILD #Greece #vouli pic.twitter.com/BtYtpSTBpZ 9.20am BST The Robin Hood Tax campaign, a group of of 120 UK organisations including Barnardo’s, Comic Relief, Oxfam, Friends of the Earth, Stamp Out Poverty and the TUC, has also responded to Lloyds’ latest PPI provision. Read the full story here.David Hillman, spokesperson for the Robin Hood Tax campaign, said:This latest provision from Lloyds for scamming its customers is a shocker. But the real scandal is the frequency and scale of such announcements from the banking sector. Seven years after the financial crisis they have still not got a grip. Banks forking out for huge fines whilst still reporting bumper profits is a clear sign they should pay more tax and help avoid some of the worst cuts to public services.” 9.19am BST Chinese shares have had their worst month in six years, despite unprecedented steps by Beijing to stem the rout. China’s securities watchdog said on Friday it is investigating the impact of automated trading on share markets, as authorities step up their clampdown on what they regard as speculative selling.Investors become especially sensitive towards the weekend when Beijing usually releases new messages, and that’s why they tend to square their positions on Friday.”What makes #China's market so volatile? @lindayueh answers http://t.co/rI4N9mDyhR 8.44am BST As earlier reported, retail sales in German fell sharply in June, but recorded their strongest first-half increase in at least 20 years. Shopping activity rose 2.% between January and June, according to official figures. German #retail sales down 2.3% m/m in June; however shopping activity from Jan-Jun rose 2.5%, biggest first-half increase in 20 years 8.44am BST French consumer spending rises 0.4% m/m in June, but down 0.1% in Q2 8.41am BST Nearly all the main European stock markets have opened higher, with the exception of Spain. The Athens stock exchange remains closed. 8.19am BST Back to the UK, where consumer group Which? has responded to the news that Lloyds is setting aside an extra £1.4bn for PPI mis-selling.Which? executive director, Richard Lloyd, said:The staggering extra provisions set aside for PPI mis-selling this week, including the whopping £1.4bn from Lloyds, clearly show there’s still huge numbers of consumers yet to be compensated. This scandal will rumble on for years unless the banks pull their socks up and start making it much quicker and easier for people to get back the money they’re rightfully owed. If any bank fails to do this, the regulator must step in.” 8.17am BST Tsipas is due to appear in parliament on Friday to answer questions from the opposition about contingency plans to adopt a parallel payment system in the event of Greece’s exit from the euro.Former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis may face criminal charges, following revelations of his secret plan to establish an alternative currency in the event of Grexit. 8.02am BST The envoys from the EU and IMF will meet Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos on Friday, following talks this week between officials at a lower level on reforming the tax system and labour market regulations.An agreement must be sealed before 20 August, when Greece needs to make a debt repayment to the European Central Bank of more than €3bn.This country no longer has democracy, but a peculiar type of totalitarianism, a dictatorship of the euro.” 7.48am BST Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Attention shifts back to Greece on Friday, as lead negotiators from the European Union and International Monetary Fund sit down with their Greek counterparts in Athens for a new round of talks to thrash out the details of a third bailout worth €86bn.Mixed retail sales data from Deutschland; miss MoM with sharp contraction, beat YoY with big rebound #eur Continue reading...
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