The global economy has taken another knock, as Japan unexpectedly falls back into recession hours after the UK prime minister warns of instability and uncertainty.Introduction: Japan back in recessionLarry Elliott: Is David Cameron right? 10.30am GMT Just in...... the eurozones trade surplus has doubled month-on month.The largest surplus was observed in Germany (+138.8bn in January-August 2014), followed by the Netherlands (+38.5bn), Italy (+26.2bn), Ireland (+23.2bn) and the Czech Republic (+10.8bn). The United Kingdom (-89.8 bn) registered the largest deficit, followed by France (-49.3 bn), Spain (-16.6 bn) and Greece (-13.6 bn). 10.10am GMT Andy Haldane isnt the only person feeling dovish about UK interest rates:HSBC has shifted its BoE rate hike call by a YEAR. Q1 2015 - Q1 2016. 9.38am GMT When it comes to crisp wordplay and biting insights, its hard to beat a speech from Andy Haldane.As Great Recession abruptly replaced Great Moderation, it was clear a grave analytical and policy error had been made. Economic and financial pride had come before a momentous fall. Nemesis had duly followed hubris. It was the coldest of comforts that this cognitive lapse was shared by the whole economic and policy-making profession. This, rather than alcohol, is why drunks search for lost keys under the lamppost.Friedrich Hayek likened the process of controlling the economy as akin to taking a tiger by the tail. As far as inflation control is concerned, Hayek was right. As some countries are finding today, the tiger is capable of biting back.Chart 6 plots inflation expectations from financial markets in the UK, US, the euro-area and Japan over recent years. In Japan, inflation expectations have been anything but well-anchored, varying significantly around a trend close to zero. Most recently, they have been falling once again. The same is true in the euro-area and, to lesser extent, in the US.So far, inflation expectations in the UK have held up and, on a central view, the Bank expects inflation to be on target at a 2-3 year horizon. But this tiger needs careful handling. Even in the UK, some measures of household inflation expectations have fallen slightly over the course of this year. The tiger has stirred. Wearing my MPC hat, and with UK inflation already below target, this is something I am watching like a dove. 9.12am GMT 9.01am GMT Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, has argued that bankers basic pay may need to be controlled if the financial sector is ever to put recent scandals behind it.It is not merely that we should want to follow Churchills wish to see finance less proud and industry more content. We want to see industry content and finance taking justifiable pride in its contribution to society. As Bill Dudley and my colleague Minouche Shafik have argued, the succession of scandals mean it is simply untenable now to argue that the problem is one of a few bad apples. The issue is with the barrels in which they are stored.Leaders and senior managers must be personally responsible for setting the cultural norms of their institutions. But in some parts of the financial sector the link between seniority and accountability had become blurred and, in some cases, severed. Standards may need to be developed to put non-bonus or fixed pay at risk. That could potentially be achieved through payment in instruments other than cash. Bill Dudleys recent proposal for certain staff to be paid partly in performance bonds is worthy of investigation as a potentially elegant solution.... 8.50am GMT 8.49am GMT From Tokyo, my colleague Justin McCurry reports that the Japanese government is widely expected to can the proposed sales tax hike tomorrow, and announce a snap general election:Abe now faces a difficult balancing act: whether to address Japans huge public debt now more than twice the size of its economy by pushing ahead with what would be a deeply unpopular tax hike, or hold off and attempt to kickstart growth.All the indications are that Abe will opt for a delay in the tax rise and call a snap election on Tuesday. Voters will probably to go to the polls in mid-December, just halfway through his current term.Daiwa on Japan election: 'Given the oppositions disarray, the main question then will be... the eventual size of the ruling LDPs majority' 8.21am GMT Michael Hewson of CMC Markets agrees that Japans unexpected slump has hit the mood in Europe:European trading this week looks set to continue the weaker theme this morning as we get set to open lower after economic data showed that Japan slipped back into recession as the economy contracted 0.4% in Q3, underlining the recent decision by the Bank of Japan to increase its stimulus program. 8.11am GMT The main European stock indices have dropped at the start of trading, as Japans recession weighs on the markets.The German DAX and Italian FTSE MIB both shed 1%, and the French CAC is down 0.8%.#FTSE opens down 04% after Japan enters recession. Biggest fallers Sainsbury (-1.9%) then Tesco (-1.9%)uneven growth, financial risks, geopolitics, waning demand and the threat of a European (and now Japanese) recession. 8.00am GMT Japans recession shows that there simply isnt enough demand to sustain global growth and inflation, argues Daniel Alpert, managing partner of investment bank Westwood Capital.#Nikkei down 430 points. US 10 year down 4 bps. Countries tossing around "hot potato" of inadequate demand. Today Japan dropped it. #USNext 7.57am GMT How seriously should we take David Camerons warning that red lights are flashing for the global economy?Our economics editor Larry Elliott says that Cameron is absolutely right to be worrying about the eurozone (a clear red-flag risk). Geopolitics and slowing emerging markets are also a concern. Global trade talks? Not so much.The first problem he identifies is Europe, where he fears a third recession in the eurozone will lead to deflation. Given that the single currency area has never recovered from the financial and economic crisis of 2007-09, this is justified. There are already signs that the latest slowdown in Europe is having an impact on UK exports. Warning light rating: bright red.A slowdown in emerging markets is the second risk highlighted by the prime minister. This is less problematical for the UK. Some emerging market economies such as Brazil and Russia have weakened, but China is still expanding at 7% a year while the worst of Indias problems seem to be behind it. Whats more, the UK exports more to the Netherlands than it does to the Bric (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries combined. Warning light rating: amber. 7.48am GMT The Japanese recession a big macro-economic shock, says Ian Williams of Peel Hunt.Williams is alarmed that domestic demand was so weak in the last quarter, with household consumption and business investment below forecast.The data increase the likelihood of PM Abe postponing the next sales tax hike and calling a snap election. 7.45am GMT UBSs former chief economist, George Magnus, is confident that prime minister Abe will now postpone the plan to raise Japans sales tax, from 8% to 10%. Japans plight also shows the limits of quantitative easing (QE), he adds. So what did we lesson overnight from the East? Japan's back in recession. Abe's tax hike 2,0 will be postponed. QE and growth bad bedfellows 7.36am GMT Shares have tumbled in Tokyo after Japan fell back into recession, and there were losses across the region. The Nikkei index of leading Japanese shares suffered its biggest one-day fall since August, shedding almost 3%.Japans GDP release has been a key turning point for the session as optimism swiftly waned and traders took profits on equities and USD/JPY [positions on the US dollar versus the yen]. This week has been pinned as key for Abenomics and so far it certainly has not been a good start. 7.32am GMT Good morning, Europe. Here's a chart of Japan entering recession (again). pic.twitter.com/V2dFPjlHlZ 7.23am GMT Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.The storm clouds gathering over the global economy have darkened this morning, with the unexpected news that Japan has fallen back into recession.The impact of the sales tax was much more severe than expected. Continue reading...
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