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Friday, November 14, 2014

Greece's recession is finally over, as economy grows by 0.7%

Germany has narrowly dodged recession, France is growing faster than expected, but Italys slump continues. Have your say in the comments belowLatest: Greece finally growing againItalys economy still shrinkingEurozone growth figures are being released French GDP beats forecasts!Germany grows by just 0.1% 10.15am GMT It appears that Greece actually exited recession in the first three months of 2014.The data just released by Eurostat shows that the Greek economy grew by 0.8% in January-March, and by another 0.3% in April-June, before posting 0.7% growth in the third quarter. 10.09am GMT Eurozone economy grew 0.2% in third quarter, slightly better than expected. France helped with 0.3% growth and recession ended in Greece. 10.06am GMT At long, long last, Greeces recession has ended, after almost six years of misery.Greek GDP rose by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2014, according to figures just released by Eurostat. 10.04am GMT Euro area GDP up by 0.2% in Q3 2014, +0.8% compared with Q3 2013 #Eurostat http://t.co/T41elp66hc pic.twitter.com/KpTCmpAsLL 10.01am GMT Breaking: The eurozone grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2014.Thats according to Eurostat, based on the various growth figures released by member states (our rolling coverage starts at 6.30am GMT). 9.59am GMT Greece to pass into growth territory in 2 mins 9.55am GMT No City economist surveyed by Bloomberg expected Italy to grow in the last quarter. Many expected a deeper downturn.This is how optmistic economists were on Italy. 22 GDP estimates ranging from -0.5% to 0%. 9.53am GMT Europes economy is basically stagnating, says Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services. He reckons todays growth figures do little to assuage concerns about the regions outlook.Outside of Spain, the Eurozone economy is flatlining, with the risk of a renewed recessionary lurch not to be underestimated. Still the fact remains that it is the very disparate collective of national governments that need to act rather than the ECB, which will effect no change to that outlook whatever it does as long as politicians do not co-operate. 9.39am GMT Incidentally, we already know that Spain grew by 0.5% in the third quarter.That data, released last month, means that the Spanish economy was the best performing Big Four euro economy. And not far behind the UK.EU 7 biggest economies GDP'Q3 qoq: - Poland +0,9% - UK +0,7% - Spain +0,5% - France +0,3% - Netherlands +0,2% - Germany +0,1% - Italy -0,1% 9.37am GMT Economists has expected Portugal to grow by 0.4%, though.... 9.36am GMT Portugals economy has racked up another quarter of growth, with GDP rising by 0.2% between July and September.Twice as fast as Germany!Official: Portugal now has bigger GDP growth than Germany...didn't see that one coming. 9.26am GMT IMF chief Christine Lagarde has told the BBC that European leaders must do more to create jobs.Italy back in recession as Germany, France eek out growth. I asked IMF's Lagarde who warned of that risk & says job growth still needed #G20 9.24am GMT Polands economy outperformed the eurozone in the last quarter - with growth of 0.9%.Its economy is 3.3% larger than a year ago, beating forecasts. 9.20am GMT Italys economy has now either shrunk, or been flat, for the last 13 quarters in a row!It began contracting in the third quarter of 2011, and the recession didnt stop until the third quarter of 2013, when GDP stagnated. 9.09am GMT In Italy GDP in the last quarter fell 0.1%, the 13th Q without any growth. Economy remains in recession, likely to contract 0.4% this year 9.08am GMT Third recession in Italy since 2008. -0.1 qoq GDP in Q3. Difference with Spain is stark and a reflection of lack of reform/wage falls in IT. 9.04am GMT Breaking: Italy has fallen back into recession, as its economic malaise continues.Italian GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2014, broadly as expected.Italy falls back into recession: #GDP down 0.1% in Q3 (-0.2% in Q2)*ITALIAN ECONOMY SHRANK 0.1% IN 3Q, MATCHING MEDIAN ESTIMATE 8.57am GMT Coming up, Italys GDP....italy gdp next, or la speranza 8.56am GMT The French CAC stock index has risen by 0.4% in early trading, as traders welcome the news that its economy grew by 0.3% last quarter. Germanys DAX is up by 0.2% following the news that Germany avoided recession. 8.50am GMT If youre just tuning in, heres our early story explaining todays eurozone growth data: 8.43am GMT Dutch Q3 GDP +0.2 QoQ on expectations of +0.3% 8.41am GMT Another picture of Angela Merkel in New Zealand, this time charming a kiwi.Practising how to keep @David_Cameron calm? RT @noahbarkin: ... and comforting a grumpy Kiwi pic.twitter.com/SSRyZvvJqV 8.41am GMT Just realised that the Dutch growth rate in the second quarter of 2014 has been revised down, to 0.6% from 0.7% originally. 8.39am GMT Just in: the Netherlands economy slowed in the last three months.Dutch GDP rose by just 0.2% in the July-September quarter, down from 0.6% growth between April and June. 8.37am GMT Angela Merkel will have learned that Germany avoided recession during a trip to New Zealand:#Mekel nose-kissing Maori during New Zealand visit pic.twitter.com/niyFOpeZXK 8.33am GMT The Slovak economy grew faster than expected - with GDP expanding by 0.6% during the quarter. 8.32am GMT More GDP figures.... Hungary grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, matching the growth recorded in April-June.On an annual basis, GDP rose by 3.2%, down from 3.9% three months ago. The countrys statistics body said there was a slowdown in the auto industry and in construction. 8.27am GMT Britains government will be relieved that Germany has avoided recession (details start here), says Ed Conway of Sky News: He writes:If there is one person who will almost as delighted as Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, that the euro areas two biggest economies are not in recession, it is George Osborne.The last thing he needed ahead of a testy election campaign was a serious UK slowdown caused by factors entirely beyond his control.The fact remains that however much Britain increases its exports outside the EU, its economic fate will still be inextricably tied to that of the euro area.And while the prognosis looks a touch brighter today, the long term outlook is hardly brilliant.Germany dodges recession and George Osborne sighs. Analysis by @EdConwaySky : http://t.co/ikGCdPMpkF 8.24am GMT And the excellent George Magnus, UBSs former chief economist, is equally downbeat:Germany's 0.1% and France's 0.3% Gdp rise in Q3 hailed as some sort of victory in European game of whac-a-mole. Grinding nominal contraction 8.21am GMT Kit Juckes, top currency analyst at Societe Generale, points out that the eurozone economy is still weak and troubling: The underlying story, which is going to be with us for a long time, is of stagnation and of hopes of recovery repeatedly being dashed unless someone gets some policy-making heads and knocks them together. 8.15am GMT Europe is experiencing a Waterworld recovery, says Alberto Gallo of RBS, and time is running out.We are getting close to Japanification here, theres not a lot of time left. 8.10am GMT The Czech Republic has missed expectations, growing by 0.3% during the third quarter.That wont affect the eurozone growth figures, though, as the Czechs (like Romania) arent in the euro. 8.04am GMT Romanias economy grew by a healthy 1.9% in the third quarter of 2014, its statistics body just reported. That means it has expanded by 3.2% over the last year. 8.01am GMT The euro has dipped in early trading against the US dollar, to $1.245.#France and #Germany return to growth but Euro is not bothered. Common currency down 0.4% vs Dollar at 1.245. pic.twitter.com/FoJSrtw9ZN 7.59am GMT Were about to get another splurge of GDP data from smaller European countries, including Austria, Hungary, Romania and the Slovak and Czech Republics. 7.53am GMT So why did Germanys economy grow so weakly last quarter?INGs Carsten Brzeski has a few theories; including problems in major trading partners including China, France and Italy; and the Ukraine crisis which has hurt trade with Russia and dented business confidence.The resilience of the labour market against the slowdown might not only be a sign of strength but also simply the last stage of Germanys reform super cycle, which started more than ten years ago. 7.45am GMT The French government has received todays GDP figures cautiously, even though growth was a little stronger than expected last quarter.Economic activity has picked up slightly but remains too weak to ensure the job creation our country needs. 7.36am GMT ING analyst Julien Manceeaux isnt too impressed by this mornings French GDP report.Hes disappointed that growth in the second quarter was revised down to minus 0.1%.Figures published this morning first showed that GDP growth in Q2 has been revised downwards to -0.1% after 0,0% in Q1. This makes the small rebound [+0.3%] announced for Q3 a rather weak one, especially as it was mainly driven by stock accumulation and public spending. 7.32am GMT The shine has been knocked off Germanys second economic miracle, says Carsten Brzeski of ING.He writes:Almost all the glamour of the second German Wirtschaftswunder seems to be gone. Chances are high that after the release of the Eurozone data at 11am CET, todays data mark the first time the German economy underperformed the rest of the Eurozone in two consecutive quarters since the doomy days of the crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. This makes the Eurozones powerhouse rather a one-eyed king in the land of the blind than an economic superman. 7.26am GMT ABM Amros Nick Kounis has stuck his neck out, and predicted that the eurozone grew by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2014.Given member states that have already reported, looks like eurozone GDP just scrapped 0.2 qoq in Q3 following 0.1 in Q2. 7.22am GMT The German economy turned out to be stable in a difficult global economic environment, says its Statistics Office.And the details of todays GDP report show that consumer spending and trade are responsible for the 0.1% growth. Positive contributions were made mainly by households, which considerably increased their final consumption expenditure in the third quarter of 2014, according to provisional calculations. Foreign trade also supported the German economy. The increase in exports was higher than that of imports. Consequently, the balance of exports and imports had a slightly positive effect on the GDP in a quarter-on-quarter comparison. By contrast, total gross fixed capital formation decreased. 7.09am GMT Some perspective from Bloombergs Jonathan Ferro -- Germanys 0.1% growth is welcome, but its hardly a blast.German avoids another recession... with growth of 0.1%. Yes, 0.1%. This is good news and that shoud tell you lots about Europe rght now. 7.07am GMT Germanys second-quarter GDP has also been revised upwards, to show a -0.1% contraction rather than the -0.2% first estimated. 7.06am GMT The news that Germany has narrowly avoided a recession will sent relief through the global economy.It also takes a little pressure off the European Central Bank to consider additional stimulus measures to stimulate the euro economy. 7.02am GMT kein Schadenfreude as Germany avoids triple-dip. 7.02am GMT Breaking: Germany has avoided recession, JUST.German GDP grew by a measly 0.1% in the third quarter of 2014, having contracted in the previous quarter.*GERMAN ECONOMY GREW 0.1% IN 3Q, MATCHING MEDIAN FORECAST 7.00am GMT Next stop Germany after #France has beaten with Q3 GDP growth of 0.3% qoq. pic.twitter.com/IMogFsL2Fc 6.54am GMT French GDP headline number better than details. Investment spending contracted further by 0.6% QoQ and inventories offset net exports drag. 6.52am GMT Frances growth 0.3% in the last quarter was driven by household spending and government spending. Companies restocking their inventories also helped.But net trade, and capital investment (firms spending on new equipment etc), both fell again. 6.43am GMT Nick Kounis of ABN Amro confirms that French growth has beaten forecasts -- thats a phrase Ive not been able to write often, recently.French GDP was better than expected at 0.3 qoq in Q3. Germany the big question mark but eurozone looks to keep head above water... 6.41am GMT Frederik Ducrozet of Credit Agricole is excited that the curve of French GDP curve has been reversed.Youpi, l'inversion de la courbe du PIB! *FRENCH ECONOMY GREW 0.3% IN 3Q; MEDIAN FORECAST 0.1% 6.40am GMT Frances 0.3% growth in the third quarter of 2014 is the strongest performance since 2011, says Mark Barton on Bloomberg TV. He adds:That shows you the state that the French economy has been in for the last four years. 6.35am GMT *FRENCH ECONOMY GREW 0.3% IN 3Q; MEDIAN FORECAST 0.1% 6.33am GMT Here we go! Frances economy faster than economists expected in the third quarter of 2014.GDP rose by 0.3% in the July-September quarter, beating expectations. Thats a rare piece of good news for president Hollande. 6.27am GMT Good morning. Its time to discover how the eurozone economy performed in the third quarter of 2014, and the results may not be pretty.Over the next few hours, GDP data from across the single currency will be released by national statistics bodies. This data will then show how well, or badly, the region performed. Continue reading...


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com