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Monday, September 8, 2014

Renzi’s victory: the new Italian political class

by  Dan Alexe Europe: Renzi wins the first round”, was the title on the first page of Italy’s La Stampa immediately after the 28 EU leaders nominated, on 30 August, the young Italian foreign minister Federica Mogherini as “Lady Pesc”, or “High Representative”, chief of EU’s diplomacy (from the French acronym Politique Etrangère et de Sécurité Commune: PESC). Mogherini, a 41-year-old center-left politician, has been Italy’s foreign minister only since February, drawing criticism that she lacks the necessary experience. For the Italian press and public opinion, Mogherini’s nomination qt the EU was a personal victory for Renzi, whose stubbornness in having her accepted in place of the British Catherine Ashton had led to the failure of the previous summit, devoted exclusively to this, on 17 July. Given the opposition of many eastern European countries, who managed to block Mogherini in July (even at the last summit, on 30 August, the Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite abstained to vote for the Italian candidate), one indirect result of Renzi’s insistence was the attribution of the Council presidency to the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk. With shaky English and zero French, but a solid knowledge of Russia, Tusk became the first eastern European politician to occupy such a prestigious function. Italy, who also holds the rotating EU presidency until the end of the year, obtained thus one of the most important jobs in the EU institutions (the High Representative is first vice-president of the Commission), on top of having also Mario Draghi at the helm of the European Central Bank.  Italy is thus fully back on the EU diplomatic scene, together with Spain, which obtained for its Economy Minister Luis de Guindos the job of head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers. This contrasts with France’s rapidly waning star. By holding the rotating EU presidency, Italy is also bringing back the attention to the Mediterranean neighbourhood and to the problem of illegal immigration that plagues the southern countries. The Renzi offensive also totally reshapes the Italian political discourse, bringing a final break with the Berlusconi era, under whom politics meant a mixture of jokes about football and women. (Everybody remembers the “Obama is more tanned than I am” joke.) Still, in spite of the indisputable success on the EU scene, euphoria is not general in Italy. La Repubblica was more moderate in its enthusiasm, by reminding that the High Representative function is, albeit highly prestigious, rather symbolic. Certainly, wrote the paper, Mogherini cannot do worse than her predecessor Catherine Ashton, but real decisions will still be taken by the major capitals and not by the young, inexperienced head of the EU’s diplomacy. Berlin, Paris and London will remain the decision-makers, to which, in Mogherini’s case, one should add Rome, given that she would not, at least in the beginning, take a course that would not be approved by her mentor Renzi. Renzi’s only setback until now has been economic. The latest figures showed that Italy’s economy is stagnating, in spite of earlier optimism. Renzi unveiled his 1,000-day  “passo dopo passo” -- Italian for “step after step” -- reform process in which the reform-minded leader outlined his priorities for the next two years and nine months. Among the items: shaking up and streamlining Italy’s snail-paced judiciary, improving the country’s ageing infrastructure, improving the country’s education system, introducing more flexibility on labor markets, and sparking growth while respecting the 3 % of gross domestic product budget deficit target. The measures, which analysts say were designed to maintain political momentum as Renzi’s government barrels into its second six months, was generally given a thumbs-up by expert observers. Renzi even started making suddenly flattering remarks about Germany. “We must stop speaking so badly about Germany,” said Renzi, who has worked hard to ally himself with Germany’s leadership since becoming prime minister. “Germany should be a model for us, not our enemy.” Former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi repeatedly bashed Germany when he was the head of government, making repeated references to Germany’s protagonist role in World War II, and arguing that Germany asserted too much influence over European affairs. Il Giornale, a newspaper controlled by Berlusconi’s family, recently called German leader Angela Merkel -- who Berlusconi once insulted with an unprintable vulgar remark about her sexuality -- “the anti-Italian” in large letters on its front page. Renzi now says that Italy should look inward, trying to fix its problems without blaming outside forces. The country must become more competitive and to do that is needs to innovate, show the importance of the rule of law, and attract new investment. That’s where the 1,000-day plan fits in, Renzi said. “At the end of the 1,000 days, Italy will be completely transformed into a country friendly for investors,” the prime minister said. Renzi also scoffed at critics who accuse him of being overly optimistic about his reform program. “Maybe they will say we are too ambitious or even too arrogant,” Renzi said. “But we have the correct attitude for a government that really wants to change the country.”   Italy, the third biggest economy in the eurozone and with the second-highest debt burden after Greece, shrank in 11 of the past 12 quarters. Renzi is under permanent pressure to deliver on the big economic promises he made when he took the helm this year. 


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