The wave of eurosceptic parties into the European Parliament might cause gridlock or prompt more centrist policy — but either way, the anti-establishment victories will resonate more loudly in the capitals than in Brussels, according to election analysis from the European Policy Centre.
The anti-European Union parties — European United Left, European Alliance for Freedom, Europe for Freedom and Democracy, as well as “soft eurosceptics” European Conservatives and Reformists — have deep divisions to overcome before they can form a voting bloc, said Corina Stratulat, a senior policy analyst. They often vote against each other, or, in the case of the U.K. Independence Party, “they have a reputation for simply not turning up to vote at all,” the report said.
And even if the eurosceptics do come together, they are simply outnumbered. Although the centre-right European Peoples’ Party and the center-left Socialists and Democrats emerged from the election diminished, they retain a clear majority between them. “The European Parliament has shown itself to be adaptable,” the report says, so the rise of the eurosceptics at the fringes will require more “grand coalitions” to accomplish policy change.
But issues that draw rival parties into such coalitions are few and far between. Common European policies will now only come about if there is absolutely no alternative, said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the European Policy Centre, according to the report.
The anti-establishment parties aren’t only concerned about policy. Although they lack cohesion, they will “inevitably” snag a few committee chairs and garner more speaking time, according to the report. Those parties “tend to use the European Parliament as a platform to ‘broadcast their views to a home audience’; but are less interested in the real work of the European Parliament.”
Shaping the contours of the political debates has already paid dividends for eurosceptics in France, Greece and the United Kingdom, the report said. For instance, UKIPs top position in the polls sent a strong message, and it strengthens anti-EU sentiment in the U.K., said Janis Emmanouilidis, the center’s director of studies. It’s also likely to impact the timing and dynamics of the country’s coming vote whether to leave the EU.
A change in how nations frame pan-continental issues — as well as the shift in which voices are loudest — could also reshape how the EU approaches its core interests, like unemployment and the Ukraine crisis.
“I think we’ll see a spread of the ‘British disease’,” Zuleeg said. “People will say we can’t move because of the strength of the anti-EU parties at home.”
But, Emmanouilidis said, that does not mean this year’s elections represent a permanent shift to the right. Moreover, the impact of the anti-establishment wave may be widespread, but that’s not to say it will be uniform. Each country had it’s own reason for voting in eurosceptics, he said — but that makes any “solution” from the EU inherently problematic. “Trying to do so could even back-fire because amending rules to satisfy one member state would not necessarily go down well in other member states,” according to the report.
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