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Friday, March 28, 2014

UK growth steady; current account deficit close to record high

Current account deficit "horrible" at £22.8bnEurozone sentiment hit 5-yr high in MarchGermany backs UK demand to protect interests of non eurozone membersInsurance stocks hammered as UK regulator plans probe of 30m policies

6.07pm GMT

Over to Greece where the finance minister has just told us that he expects a crucial parliamentary vote on the latest package of measures - the price of further further financial assistance - to go smoothly on Sunday. Helena Smith reports from Athens:

The reforms may be unpopular among MPs and industry groups but prime minister Antonis Samaras fragile coalition is confident that the vote now needed to release more than 10bn in aid will ultimately pass on Sunday

As many as eight ruling coalition lawmakers had emerged as potential rejectors of the bill an omnibus piece of legislation encompassing a wide range of measures to boost the debt-stricken countrys competitiveness. With a majority of just three any losses could have have spelt catastrophe for the government which faces a bond repayment of some 9. bn in May.

Deputies in both the centre right New Democracy party and centre left Pasok had been especially incensed by a reform that will allow longer shelf-life for milk, arguing it would enable cheap, low quality milk from Bulgaria and Romania to flood the market. But even though industry figures joined others today in opposing the reform, Stournaras insisted that the issue had been resolved. Its been settled, they now understand that the regulation is actually a good one."

The macro-economics professor, the only technocrat in the two-party administration, said the once crisis-plagued Greek economy was now so benign he did not expect any political turmoil on the horizon. I am not afraid at all, he said speaking of upcoming euro elections in May. Greeces place in the eurozone is fully secured the economy is so benign there wont be any problems, he added predicting that Athens primary surplus, which is to be announced by Eurostat towards the end of April, would be at least 2bn or 1 percent of GDP. I can tell you with certainty that it will be around 1 percent of GDP.

5.22pm GMT

Positive comments from the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, eased fears that the country's economy would continue to slow down, and helped markets to a positive end to the week. All week investors had been hoping for signs that China would make moves to stimulate its economy, and the premier's words reinforced that view. Mining companies in particular were in demand, China being a major consumer of commodities. Investors seemed able to shrug off the continuing tensions over Ukraine. So the final scores showed:

The FTSE 100 finished 27.26 points or 0.41% higher at 6615.58

4.25pm GMT

The US Federal Reserve should keep interest rates low until early 2016 and only raise them gradually, according to one of the central bank's officials.

Chicago Fed chairman Charles Evans, a noted dove but a non-voting member this year, said the Fed had to make sure it did not derail the economic recovery by acting too quickly. Evans said in Hong Kong:

I personally doubt that the funds rate is going to start to increase before the middle of 2015.

It's more likely to be late, after the middle of 2015. I'd actually hold off until early 2016 for the funds rate increase.

4.12pm GMT

Cyprus has abolished maximum daily cash withdrawal limits a year after it imposed capital controls.

IMF Completes Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility for #Cyprus and Approves 83.3 Million Disbursement

4.02pm GMT

Back with the UK insurers, and Resolution has issued a statement after the news of the FCE probe into pensions and savings.

Resolution said:

Resolution notes the FCA's announcement regarding a review of the fair treatment of long standing customers in life insurance. We look forward to receiving further details from the FCA.

We put all of our customers at the heart of our business and engage with them on a regular basis. In 2011, Resolution established Heritage, a standalone division with a dedicated management team specifically focused on meeting the ongoing needs of customers with legacy products.

3.57pm GMT

Earlier, the latest US consumer confidence figures came in lower than expected.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5. Survey director Richard Curtin said:

Opposing forces might have played an important role in driving sentiment in March. More seasonal weather conditions and the improvement in the labour market are likely to have been supportive but rising confidence has been somehow limited from the recent spike in fuel prices and energy bills in late March.

3.32pm GMT

Back in the corporate world and pharmaceuticals group Shire has slipped back after a US court setback.

A Federal court of appeal has reversed an earlier ruling in favour of Shire in a patent case against Actavis. The earlier judgement said Activis' Watson unit had infringed Shire's patent over Lialda - a treatment for bowel disease - but the appeal court said the scope of the patent had been incorrectly analysed.

3.05pm GMT

One final chart from the ONS: here is the UK's current account as a share of GDP. To recap we found out today the UK's current account - a deficit of £22.8bn - is worth 5.4% of GDP.

2.54pm GMT

How much will global warming cost the economy? And can economists be trusted to work out the answer?

A United Nations draft report has forecast that climate change would cut economic output by between 0.2 and 2.0 % a year by damaging human health, disrupting water supplies and raising sea levels.

But many countries reckon that is an underestimate because it excludes risks of catastrophic changes, such as a runaway melt of Greenland's ice, collapse of coral reefs or a drying of the Amazon rainforest that could cause massive economic losses.

Trying to address the objections, an updated draft text from the meeting on Friday, obtained by Reuters, adds that impact estimates "do not yet account for catastrophic changes, tipping points, and many other details.

Economists argue that it's difficult to estimate risks of catastrophic events, so they leave them out. But that's like saying the risk is zero, which isnt true.

2.22pm GMT

Is the picture brightening in the eurozone? While today's consumer sentiment data suggests it is, Capital Economics sounds a cautionary note.

A note from the famously bearish consultancy says that although the recovery "probably gained a little momentum in the first quarter", growth is likely to remain "disappointingly sluggish" while risks of deflation are growing.

Of course, the relationship of these [consumer sentiment] surveys with GDP growth is far from perfect. But they are broadly consistent with the limited hard data that is already available. As a result, the risks to our forecast of 0.5% growth in 2014 now appear to lie to the upside.

Nonetheless, even growth of 0.4% in the first quarter would still be a disappointingly small improvement on the 0.3% registered in Q4 and would indicate that the eurozones recovery is still struggling to gather significant momentum. Even in Germany, the survey data published last week suggest that growth is likely to remain solid rather than spectacular.

1.54pm GMT

In Berlin the red carpet has been rolled out for China's president Xi Jinping, the first state visit to Germany by a Chinese president in 8 years.

The Chinese president described relations between the two economic powerhouses as "close," in a commentary published on Friday in the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Cooperation between China and Germany - the leading economies in Asia and the EU - could open the world to enormous possibilities of economic growth, he added.

China is Germany's most important trade partner in Asia and second most important globally after the US. According to provisional figures the government statistics agency Destatis, the value of exports to China - mainly vehicles, machines, electrical and chemical products - reached 67 billion euros ($92.1 billion) in 2013. Meanwhile, imports from the Asian country cost 73.4 billion euros in total.

1.32pm GMT

I promised German inflation data, and finally, here it is.

Germany's statistics agency has reported that prices are expected to have risen by 1.0% in March 2014 on the previous year. This relatively low rate of inflation reflects falling energy prices, which have offset an rise in food prices.

German CPI (YoY). Disinflationary risks in the Eurozone persist - pic.twitter.com/pLHR9jXhXJ @SoberLook

1.17pm GMT

In the latest update on US consumption, we learn that consumer spending grew by 0.3% in February, a fraction higher than the 0.2% recorded in January.

Here is an extract from the Reuters' report:

The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending increased 0.3% last month after rising by a revised 0.2% in January. Spending was previously reported to have increased 0.4 percent in January.Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rising 0.3% in February.The dollar rose to a session high against the yen after the data. U.S. stock index futures were little changed.

Spending in February was lifted by an increase in services consumption, likely because of increased demand for health care and utilities.

Many analysts foresee the economy growing 3% for the year, after a weak first quarter. It would be the most robust annual expansion since 2005, two years before the Great Recession began.

The National Association for Business Economics is predicting that the economy will grow 3.1% this year, far higher than the lacklustre 1.9% gain in 2013.

12.25pm GMT

George Osborne and Ed Miliband are attempting to woo small business at the Federation of Small Business conference in Manchester.

In his speech, the Labour leader concentrated his fire on the 'big six' energy companies. He said that the energy market competition inquiry announced on Thursday showed he was right to argue the market was rigged. And he said gas and electricity price rises cannot be justified until the market has been reformed.

The big six energy companies have made huge profits at the expense not just of hard-working families but hard-working business people too. They have done it because the market just isn't working.

And while we reform that broken market, there can be no justification for further price rises. Because we now have official confirmation that these will be price rises taking advantage of a market that is rigged.

A big bank saying 'no' should not be the end of the line for a small business. Now, with our plan, it won't be.

Dealing a blow to Byron Burger, George Osborne tells FSB his fave takeaway is pizza #FSB

12.13pm GMT

More Blackberry crumble.

The Canadian smartphone maker has reported a loss of $423 million (£254m) for the final quarter of 2014. A painful result for shareholders, but not as bad as the £2.7bn loss it reported a year earlier.

11.57am GMT

And now it's all gone.

The tumble in insurance stocks has helped wipe out the gains the FTSE100 made earlier today. The UK's bluechip index is now largely flat on its opening value at around 6590 points.

11.38am GMT

Is it springtime in the eurozone?

Consumer confidence was particularly buoyant, registering the sharpest monthly increase since April 2009 (+3.4). Consumers' views on the future general economic situation and the level of future unemployment, as well as their savings expectations improved sharply. The improvement in households' expected financial situation was comparatively moderate. The slight improvement in retail trade confidence (+0.4) was the result of managers' more positive evaluation of the volume of stocks in combination with broadly unchanged assessments of the present and expected business situation. The flat development in construction confidence (-0.3) reflects opposing tendencies in its two components: while employment expectations were revised upwards, managers showed increased concern about the level of order books.

11.00am GMT

Labour has issued its reaction to news that Germany wants to protect the interests of non-eurozone countries in the event of treaty change. Read in at 8.41.

The party's Europe spokesman Gareth Thomas said:

Labour wants to see Europe work better for Britain, and that includes reforms to ensure Europe does more to boost growth and jobs here in the UK. Of course, as the eurozone consolidates, there need to be proper safeguards to protect the single market.

But what David Cameron won't admit is that, because of his arbitrary timescale of 2017, he now only has 24 months to convince all 27 member states to agree to major treaty change on the terms set by Eurosceptic Tory backbenchers. EU reform is possible, and necessary, but David Cameron is unable to approach it in a sensible way. The gap between what his party will accept and what our European allies can agree to remains unbridgeable.

10.55am GMT

A sharp-eyed reader points out that the savings rate is falling.

Interestingly, tucked away in the ONS GDP data, was detail on our savings rate in 2013 versus 2012; it's now fallen to 5.1% versus 7.3% in 2012...

10.42am GMT

Turning to the Ukraine crisis, Germany's energy and economy minister Sigmar Gabriel has said there is "no sensible alternative" to Russian natural gas imports.

According to the Neue Osnabruecker Zeitungand he said it was unlikely Russia would stop deliveries because of the crisis over Ukraine.

"Even in the darkest hours of the Cold War Russia respected its contracts.

10.27am GMT

Economists have also been giving their reaction to the latest GDP data.

Howard Archer of IHS, who is forecasting GDP growth of 2.7% for 2014, is encouraged by today's numbers.

Encouragingly, growth in the fourth quarter was much less dependent on consumer spending, with business investment and exports seeing marked improvement. Indeed, business investment rose 2.4% quarter-on-quarter and 8.7% year-on-year. In addition, net trade was markedly positive, with export growth revised up appreciably to 2.8% quarter-on-quarter. Consumer spending growth actually slowed appreciably compared to the third quarter but was respectable.

Exports should benefit from improving global growth in 2014 although net trades contribution will still be limited by solid domestic demand sucking in imports. The strong pound could also have some limiting impact on exports.

While growth has remained strong through the past 12 months or so, todays numbers confirm that it has come at a cost.

Disposable real income fell by 0.1% and the amount of money saved by UK households fell to 5% from 5.6% - a clear sign that the reserves that the UK consumer is relying on to fund services spending is being depleted.

9.58am GMT

Here is a round-up of the best analysis and reaction on Twitter to the latest batch of UK economic data.

Absolutely shocking! In 2013, the UKs current account deficit was £71.1 billion. #GDP #GBP But in an hour people will have forgotten it..

Strong services growth in January point to a healthy GDP increase in Q1 pic.twitter.com/DjytinhHKb

Not so good news! UK #GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.7% in 2013, compared with 2012, revised down 0.1 percentage points

Main culprit for the deterioration in current accout: big fall in income earned on UK investments overseas pic.twitter.com/xvajsBNERI

Falling investment income from abroad hammered the current account in Q4 2013: pic.twitter.com/YsnIKXjJoN

9.47am GMT

As expected the UK economy grew by 0.7% in October- December, in line with earlier estimates. But GDP for the full year was revised down to 1.8%, compared to the earlier estimate of a 1.9% increase. GDP for the five quarters - Q4 12 - Q13 - was left unchanged at 2.7%

The full data set published by the Office for National Statistics is available here.

9.31am GMT

Breaking news: GDP stands unchanged at 0.7% for Oct-Dec 2013, but the current account deficit is worse than expected.

9.29am GMT

But for UK insurance companies it is another story. Their stocks are tanking after it emerged that regulators are planning an investigation looking into 30m policies sold between 1970 and 2000.

Clive Adamson, the director of supervision at the FCA, told the Daily Telegraph

We want to find out how closed-book products are being serviced by insurance companies, as we are concerned insurers are allocating an unfair amount of overheads to historic funds.

As firms cut prices and create new products there is a danger that customers with older contracts are forgotten. We want to ensure they get a fair deal. As part of the review we will collect information to establish whether we need to intervene on exit charges.

9.22am GMT

European stocks are up this morning, as optimism about the global economy lifts mining shares.

We have gathered experience from successfully battling the economic downturn last year and we have policies in store to counter economic volatility for this year.

We will launch relevant and forceful measures according to what we have planned in our government work report.

9.02am GMT

A few more details on those French consumer spending figures: household spending on goods increased by 0.1% in February, Insee reported this morning. This was a big improvement on the 2.1% decrease in January, although far from where economists expected spending to go.

8.41am GMT

In a potentially significant result for David Cameron, Germany has said the interests of non-eurozone countries must be protected in the event of further EU integration.

In a joint letter in the Financial Times chancellor George Osborne and his German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble say that treaty change must guarantee "fairness" for those outside the eurozone.

A stable euro is good for the global economy, and especially for Europe. The crisis has shown that the eurozone needs a common fiscal and economic policy with corresponding improved governance. The UK fully recognises the progress made so far in responding to the crisis, and it supports the case for further steps forward. But as the euro area continues to integrate, it is important that countries outside the euro area are not at a systematic disadvantage in the EU. So future EU reform and treaty change must include reform of the governance framework to put euro area integration on a sound legal basis, and guarantee fairness for those EU countries inside the single market but outside the single currency.

Some suggest that reforming the EU is impossible. We have already proved them wrong. Last year saw the first ever real-terms cut to the EU budget. Together, we are proposing a programme for cutting red tape in Europe that already has the support of 12 other member states and the European parliament.

Germanys desire for treaty change is not shared elsewhere in the EU, especially in France, which does not endorse Berlins enthusiasm for more centralised budgetary control in the eurozone.

There would also be widespread opposition to any treaty change that triggered referendums in any member state because the rise of populist and anti-European parties would make such polls a perilous exercise.

8.16am GMT

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and the business world.

So far, the UKs economic recovery has been a story of shopping and house prices. Today we will learn more about the fine detail of the economic picture, with official data out later expected to confirm that the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the last quarter of 2013.

The growth rate is encouraging and retail sales and confidence are high in the UK, markets will be looking for the needed uptick in investment spending to give the economic recovery more balance.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com