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Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Clegg and Farage clash over Europe in live debate

YouGov polls suggests 57% of viewers thought Farage won.

Only 36% of YouGov respondents thought Clegg won.

Farage says EU has "blood on its hands" over Ukraine

9.15pm GMT

Here's what Nigel Farage said about the EU having "blood on its hands" over Ukraine.

We have given a false series of hopes to a group of people in the western Ukraine and so geed up were they that they actually toppled their own elected leader. That provoked Mr Putin and I think the European Union, frankly, does have blood on its hands in the Ukraine.

I don't want a European army, navy, air force or a European foreign policy. It has not been a thing for good in the Ukraine.

9.10pm GMT

Jo Twyman from YouGov has just told BBC News that, according to its poll, 20% of Lib Dem supporters thought Nigel Farage won.

Among Labour supporters, 51% thought Nick Clegg won, Twyman said.

8.57pm GMT

And here's an extract from an email that the Lib Dems have sent out to supporters tonight.

Nigel Farage just showed his true colours. In the first European debate with Nick Clegg he attacked gay marriage, dismissed the 3 million British jobs that depend on Europe and admitted that he had simply made up his claim that 75% of our laws come from the EU.

Only the Liberal Democrats are prepared to fight for our place in Europe and protect those jobs.

8.56pm GMT

Here's Danny Alexander, the Lib Dem chief secretary to the Treasury, on the debate.

I thought that Nick made his argument incredibly clearly and passionately. I thought he was the clear winner of the debate. He was the statesman setting out why Britain is better off in the EU.

I think a lot of people watching Nigel Farage, maybe before they thought he was a guy you'd want to go down the pub with but by the end he was more like the pub bore you don't want to be stuck in the corner with at the end of the evening.

8.54pm GMT

And here is some more Guardian video from the debate.

8.50pm GMT

Here are some more figures from Blurrt, the Twitter analytics firm that provides the data for the LBC worm. (See 8.23pm.)

Blurrt says, of the tweets mentioning Nick Clegg, 24% were positive, and 32% negative - giving a net rating of -8.

8.43pm GMT

My colleague Rowena Mason has sent me this from the spin room.

Does it matter if Clegg loses? A Lib Dem aide said: "In a snap poll populist arguments may well win over. The real win tonight has been that we wanted this debate and talked directly to the voters. Whatever poll you read, there's lots more people who think Britain should be in the EU than are currrently considering voting for the Lib Dems. The biggest losers are the Labour party and the Conservative party, David Cameron and Ed Miliband, who didnt have the courage to be here and stand up for Britain's place in Europe. We got the opportunity to put across our argument, whether people agree with it or not."

8.42pm GMT

There is a spin room at the debate venue.

But, of course, these days the real spin room is Twitter.

Nick made the best arguments, making the case for why Europe is good for British jobs, security & influence in the world. #NickvNigel

Closing statements now ... #NickvNigel ... Facts and jobs, versus prejudice and fear. #IAgreeWithNick #whyiamin #fb

Nick Clegg drove a coach and horses through Farages claims on EU immigration and costs. #NickvNigel #LBCdebate

Garage says Europe has blood on is hands in Ukraine. Does he support Russian annexation of Crimea?

§ So Nigel agrees with Putin. Odd for someone who says he is backing democracy to back a Russian autocrat #FarageFacts #NickvNigel

#LBCdebate #NickvNigel lots of Tories in the spin room desperately trying to comment on a debate they are supposedly ignoring...

I think Clegg will take 37% of voters saying he won #NickvNigel.

What was very interesting about yougov debate poll was half of Labour voters thought Farage won, a big number when Labour giving no EU vote

#LBCdebate poll shows a win for #TeamNigel pic.twitter.com/ksh0w6G1Y3

8.28pm GMT

YouGov were polling for the Sun. Here's their tweet.

#LBCdebate: Nigel beats Nick 57-36 - @YouGov /Sun poll: http://t.co/rnC0OxVFvQ pic.twitter.com/ktIUGDcZ0Z

8.24pm GMT

The YouGov poll shows that 57% of respondents thinks Nigel Farage won the debate.

Some 36% said Nick Clegg performed best.

8.23pm GMT

Here's the LBC Twitter worm.

It shows that there were three moments in the debate when people on Twitter (not a representative sample, of course) were much more positive about Nigel Farage.

8.19pm GMT

What Nigel Farage had to say about the EU having "blood on its hands" over Ukraine was probably the top story of the debate.

Rather, it would be if it were not for the YouGov poll providing the top line.

"The European Union has blood on its hands in Ukraine" could haunt Farage says Boulton. "He took the Putin line" Gideon Rachman tells Sky

i think Farage by saying the EU has blood on its hands over Ukraine will find he has a warn welcome in the Kremlin.

Farage's Crimea answer plays into isolationism that many accuse him of. Almost RonPaul-esque. Brussels, not Putin, w 'blood on its hands'?

8.17pm GMT

And here are some snap verdicts from other journalists.

At the moment, opinion is divided.

Not going to have changed many minds. Both Clegg and Farage will have reinforced their support, but I think Farage did better.

Overall, Nigel Farage was much clearer and sharper, though sounded condescending at times. Think he won over Clegg 60-40.

I think Farage won, but I hate the EU. Audience will be small, responses will be partisan. #NickvNigel

Westminster has decided that Nick Clegg won that debate. Interesting to see if that mean a win for Farage in 'real world'.

I'm surprised at how easily Nick Clegg won that. Especially given the shaky start.

Clegg on points. Farage confirmed that Ukip is an anti-immigration party first and foremost #LBCdebate

Clegg shaded it on jobs, Farage on immigration. But Clegg's 'read the small print' quip a disaster

#lbcdebate Not many votes shifted by Clegg or Farage in dull/worthy LBC debate on Europe. Not a disaster/victory for either politician

In context of that next election- Clegg still an attractive TV performer and Farage a player.. We've learnt nothing new re Europe.

A debate of two halves, Farage won the first part but Clegg came back in the second. Think Farage will regret EU 'blood on their hands' line

VERDICT: Stylistically Clegg wins hands down. Farage awkward/sweaty. Substance depends on whose argument you believe. But both gain votes.

8.07pm GMT

Snap Verdict: Nigel Farage's belligerence, and his monotone Mr Angry act, started to grate towards the end, but his opening and closing statement were strong, and on big picture fundamentals he tended to make more powerful points. But Nick Clegg was often much better on the detail, and the more relaxed he sounded, the more convincing he was. Looking back at my question by question judgments, they suggest Farage won on points. That feels about right.

8.01pm GMT

Clegg says that he wants a Great Britain, not a little England.

Farage says that Clegg spent the whole debate avoiding the point about 485m people being able to come to the UK. He says he is a patriot. He wants good relations with other countries in Europe. But he wants Britain to govern itself.

8.00pm GMT

Q: Why does Ukraine want to be closer to the EU?

Clegg says that this shows how the EU can transform countries.

7.58pm GMT

It's question eight.

Q: Why should we trust you, when you, Clegg, lied over tuition fees, and you, Farage, employ your wife when you said you would not?

7.57pm GMT

Here's more Guardian video from the debate.

7.54pm GMT

Question seven

Q: Why does the UK implement more laws than other EU countries?

7.50pm GMT

Clegg says he believes the police more than Farage.

Remember the plane spotters who ended up in a Greek jail?

7.45pm GMT

Question six.

Q: Does Britain benefit from the EU warrant?

7.42pm GMT

Here's the Guardian video of the opening statements.

7.41pm GMT

Question 5 - Verdict: Clegg won this one. He is sounding calmer, meaning that Farage is starting to sound a bit too belligerent, but what really undid Farage was the questioning from Ferrari about the leaflet.

7.39pm GMT

Question five.

Q: How would we do deals with China without being in the EU?

7.33pm GMT

Farage says Ford moved abroad with EU money.

The German car industry needs the UK more than we need them.

7.28pm GMT

Q: Would Britain suffer from skill shortages if there were no free movement?

Farage says that he is in favour of those with the right skills coming her, in certain conditions.

7.23pm GMT

Third question

Q: Should people be allowed to come here to claim benefits?

7.20pm GMT

Clegg says people come to the UK. But they return too.

If we pull up the drawbridge, what happens to the 1.5m Britons working in the EU.

7.18pm GMT

Clegg says we have to have this debate on the basis of facts.

In the Eastleigh byelection, Ukip said 29m Romanians and Bulgarians might come to the UK.

7.15pm GMT

Second question

Q: What are the benefits of having EU migrants come here?

7.13pm GMT

Ferrari quotes what Clegg said in a leaflet before 2010. It called for a referendum.

Clegg says that was at the time of the Lisbon treaty. The rules were changing. That was why he favoured a referendum then. We have guaranteed that right now, he says.

7.08pm GMT

Farage says the laws change every week.

But, even during this government, control of the City has been transferred.

7.06pm GMT

First question.

Q: Why aren't the people offered a chance?

7.04pm GMT

Farage says imagine we were voting to join.

Join a club costing £55m a day. And an open border, to 450m people, many from poor countries.

7.03pm GMT

Nick Clegg says this is about you. Your job. Or the job of someone you know.

If we cut ourselves off from Europe, jobs will be lost.

7.01pm GMT

Ferrari says he is going to toss a coin to decide who starts.

Clegg calls heads. And it's tails.

7.01pm GMT

Ferrari is introducing Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage.

Farage is standing on the right.

7.00pm GMT

Nick Ferrari opens the debate.

He claims "history will be made" tonight. First hyperbole of the night.

6.59pm GMT

Ooops.

That's blown it. LBC website has crashed. I will have to listen to Clegg-Farage on the old wireless thingy in the kitchen.

6.58pm GMT

Tom Newton Dunn, the Sun's political editor, has told Sky he thinks both men will have won from this evening. When was the last time political pundits spent all evening talking about Ukip and the Lib Dems, he asks.

6.56pm GMT

Isabel Oakeshott has a point.

I'm bored of seeing Farage with a pint. Time for @oflynndirector to come up with some different images

Astonishingly, Nigel Farage has been pictured at a pub with a pint on his way to the studio. Let's hope the debate is less predictable

6.54pm GMT

This is Nigel Farage having a pint before the debate.

Exclusive pic of Nigel Farage ahead of tonight's debate via @Telegraph editor @chrisevans1 pic.twitter.com/1XkTv6hmJJ

6.51pm GMT

Nick Clegg has had some pre-debate support from Sir Richard Branson. The Virgin tycoon has posted this on his website.

Great Britain can't be allowed to become Little Britain. As part of Europe, people can live where they want, set up companies where they want, trade where they want, travel where they want. As part of the EU, there are many more countries for British people to experience, and vice-versa, making for a much more diverse, multicultural, rich society.

For those people who seem hell-bent on pulling the UK out of the EU, it is contrasting that the people of Ukraine were willing to die on the streets of Kiev in hope that they could join the EU.

6.48pm GMT

Natalie Bennett, the Green party leader, obviously feels she should be involved. She's sent me this statement.

What we are seeing tonight is in quantitative terms a debate between the leader of a party without a Westminster MP and the leader of a party that may well have no MEPs after May.

Qualitatively, it will be a sterile debate between a ridiculous, simplistic ideology that suggests getting out of the EU would solve all of Britain's problems and the new lapdog of corporate Europe, which is claiming the EU-US free trade deal would have magical economic effects, ignoring the massive environmental and democratic damage it would cause.

6.46pm GMT

Rowena Mason has posted this.

Tim Farron confirms he helped Nick Clegg prep. Did he play Nigel? "I couldn't possibly comment" #LBCdebate

6.44pm GMT

The Lib Dems have sent out this email to their supporters. They are trying to rig the "worm"!

In just a few minutes, Nick is going to go on stage and take on Nigel Farage. Were here at HQ ready to make sure we win tonights twitter battle, and I need your help.

Heres three things you can do:

6.43pm GMT

Although Nigel Farage is debating Nick Clegg, other Ukip candidates are not so keen to debate their opponents. The Lib Dems have sent out a new release saying four Ukip European candidates have refused invitations to debate their Lib Dem opposite numbers. They are Paul Nuttall, the Ukip deputy leader, Roger Helmer, Jane Collins and Jill Seymour.

6.38pm GMT

My colleague Rowena Mason is also in the debate "spin room". She's sent me this.

The "spin room" just outside the debate hall is thronging with hundreds of hacks - including an international media contingent. One reporter from Hong Kong has just interviewed the BBC's Norman Smith, asking will it be more important than the general election debates? Errrr, no, is the answer.

A Lib Dem aide disappointingly says Clegg's performance "won't be joke heavy". The DPM is aiming to get across four key points about Europe in order of importance - it's good for jobs, helps fight crime, gives Britain international clout, and is necessary to tackle climate change.

6.37pm GMT

The Spectator's James Forsyth thinks Nick Clegg goes into the debate with the upper hand.

My instinct is that the format slightly favours Clegg. It allows him to cross-examine Farage and given that detail isnt one of the Ukip leaders strengths that could work to Cleggs advantage.

6.35pm GMT

In a debate, people always want to know who's won. Sometimes that's an unreasonable question - as explained earlier (see 5.25pm), it's easy to see how Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg could both emerge as "winners" - but that won't stop people asking it at 8pm.

Here are the various benchmarks we can use.

6.23pm GMT

More on Nigel Farage's pre-match preparations.

Team Farage tell me @ukip leader is limbering up in Westminster Arms ahead of Euro showdown with Nick Clegg #pintofYoungs #lbcdebate

.@Nigel_Farage prepping for the big debate with @nick_clegg where else but Westminster Arms! : #NickvNigel #LBCdebate pic.twitter.com/YhqzbPky2X

6.18pm GMT

Earlier this week Paddy Power had Nick Clegg as the 4/6 favourite to win the debate (with the winner being determined by the YouGov poll). I think that was a foolish call (for reasons I've explained at 6.02pm), and now Paddy Power have got Clegg and Nigel Farage level pegging, with both on 5/6 (which probably means they are still under-pricing Farage.)

6.14pm GMT

Steven Swinford has this on the pre-match warm up.

While Nigel Farage is having a pint in the pub before tonight's debate, Clegg will have a cup of tea. 'He's really looking forward to it'.

6.13pm GMT

And David Cameron claims not to be too interested too.

Team Cameron tell me the PM won't be watching Clegg/Farage Euro showdown. Pourquoi ? Cos he's meeting the Queen #topexcuse

6.09pm GMT

Here's the official Labour party position on the debate. It's from Jon Ashworth, a shadow Cabinet Office minister.

This is a lightweight battle between two men who will never be Prime Minister. It is only happening because Nick Clegg needs Nigel Farage, and Nigel Farage needs Nick Clegg - but the country doesn't need either of them.

While the Tories, Lib Dems and UKIP obsess about Europe, Labour will continue to prioritise tackling the cost-of-living crisis and getting the economy back on track.

6.08pm GMT

The debate is taking place at 8 Northumberland Avenue in London.

My colleague Esther Addley is in the "spin room" that LBC have set out. Here's what it looks like.

This is the (ahem) 'spin room' where press corralled to follow #clegg #farage debate on telly. Posher than yr average pic.twitter.com/3LdZKmvbUF

6.02pm GMT

Sometimes there is a clear winner in a political debate. There was almost universal agreement that Mitt Romney won the first debate in the US presidential elections in 2012. And in 2010 Nick Clegg went into the first leaders' debate as a relative unknown, and made such a good impression that the Lib Dems' poll ratings subsequently soared.

But more often people who watch a debate end up feeling much the same way about the protagonists as they did at the start.

A fifth of the country are in the Committed Hostility group who see nothing good about Europe and overwhelmingly want to leave though immigration worries them more. Just over a quarter are Discontented Sceptics, thinking the costs outweigh the benefits but less certain that we should head for the exit. Another quarter of the population make up the Relaxed Status Quo, who are happy as things are and hardly give the subject a thought, while the smaller group of Global Progressives strongly support the EU and even welcome its influence on Britain. Finally there are the Disengaged, one in seven of the population who know little and care even less.

5.31pm GMT

Here are some notes from LBC explaining how the debate will be conducted.

Audience members - who will put questions to the leaders - are being recruited by ICM in line with a demographic profile of the wider UK population. To ensure political balance, theyll also be based on their attitude to EU membership.

The audience will be able to applaud at the start, during and end of the debate.

5.25pm GMT

There are less than two hours now until the first debate between Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg on Europe. Tonight's is being hosted by LBC, and it is being broadcast on Sky and BBC News too.

Farage, the Ukip leader, and Clegg, the Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister, are at opposite sides of the spectrum on the subject of the European Union. Farage wants to leave, while Clegg, a former EU official as well as a former MEP, has decided to fight the European elections on a platform of unashamed support for the EU. The Lib Dems have always been the most pro-European of the main parties, but in the past they tended to keep quiet about it. Now, though, Clegg has decided it's electorally advantageous to wave the EU flag (because the number of voters enthusiastic about the EU, though small, is larger than the number currently enthusiastic about the Lib Dems).

The fascination of the Clegg-Farage face-off is that UKIP and the Liberal Democrats dont have much to say to each other; they just disagree. Clegg and Farage wont really be talking to each other or even trying to win over the same audience.

UKIP and the Lib Dems are not trying to steal voters directly from each other. UKIP is primarily taking its support from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems need to claw back from Labour and the Tories. Farages latest claim is that his core electorate will be the betrayed working class. The Lib Dems chances of harvesting a protest vote evaporated the day they went into government. Today they must be a party of principle or they are nothing. Anyway, except when swept up in a by-election tsunami, the working class has never been a heartland for the centre party.


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.theguardian.com