Obduracy and absence means suffering of ordinary people likely to continue as sides in brutal conflict meet for Geneva II talks
International efforts to bring peace to Syria after almost three years of war get under way in Switzerland on Wednesday with near-zero expectations of a political breakthrough but slight hope of a deal on confidence-building measures and improved access for humanitarian aid on the ground to relieve the suffering of millions of ordinary people.
Prospects for progress depend on co-operation between the US and Russia. On Tuesday night the Kremlin revealed that Barack Obama and Vladimir Putin had had a "businesslike and constructive" phone conversation about Syria. Their foreign ministers, Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry, will meet later in Montreux. Agreement between the two countries on dismantling Syria's chemical weapons programme last September was one of the few diplomatic achievements of the crisis so far.
Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general who got off to a bad start on Monday when he was forced to withdraw a last-minute invitation to Iran, is chairing the peace conference – known as Geneva II even though it is taking place in nearby Montreux. Tight security arrangements were in place to protect Kerry, Lavrov, Britain's William Hague and dozens of other western and Arab foreign ministers meeting at an opulent lakeside hotel.
Walid al-Muallem, the Syrian foreign minister leading his country's delegation, will be meeting many of his counterparts for the first time since the bloodiest and longest crisis of the Arab spring erupted in 2011. Estimates of the death toll range from 100,000-136,000. Two million Syrians are now refugees and millions more displaced and in need all over the war-torn country.
The Middle East has been destabilised by a conflict which has shaken one of the most authoritarian regimes in the region, but not brought it down, and has unleashed a vicious wave of sectarianism. Evidence of organised killings and torture in Syrian prisons in a legal report published by the Guardian and CNN was a grim reminder of large-scale repression and human rights abuses in Damascus.
Ban rescinded his invitation to Iran on the grounds that it had not publicly committed to the conference goal of agreeing a transitional governing body for Syria by the mutual consent of President Bashar al-Assad and the opposition groups fighting to overthrow him.
Iran is Assad's most important regional ally but he also enjoys strong backing from Russia. The Syrian opposition, by contrast, enjoys wholehearted support only from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar. The US and other western countries oppose Assad but are increasingly alarmed by the prominence of al-Qaida-type groups in rebel ranks which have been accused of committing atrocities.
The US was unhappy at the prospect of Iranian participation, as was the main western-backed rebel group, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC) which threatened to boycott the talks unless Ban backed down. For several hours the conference teetered on the brink.
Iran blamed the US for the confusion. "We regret that Ban Ki-moon has withdrawn the invitation under pressure," the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, told reporters in Tehran on Tuesday. "It is also regretful that Mr Ban does not have the courage to provide the real reasons for the withdrawal."
The last-minute row seemed to symbolise the disarray in international responses to the 34-month crisis. "Priceless to see US officials, who've blundered all along on Syria policy, mad at Ban Ki-moon's Iran blunder," said Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "Myopia/incompetence all around."
The point of Geneva II is to pick up where Geneva I, held in June 2012, left off. But there is no sign of readiness by any of the Syrian parties to make substantive concessions. Assad has repeatedly said he will not step down and has spoken of standing for president again later this year. Those opposition groups that are prepared to negotiate insist he must go and cannot play a role in any transition.
"We will not accept less than the removal of the criminal Bashar al-Assad and changing the regime and holding the murderers accountable," Badr Jamous, SNC secretary general, said in Montreux. The majority of the armed groups in Syria, especially Islamist ones backed by the Saudis, oppose any talks.
Western diplomats admit it is hard to see how the impasse between regime and opposition can be broken. The best hope is that pressure by their respective supporters will keep both at the negotiating table. "If Geneva II is going to work it will take a long time," said one senior official. "We've felt the absence of any process since Geneva I. It is hard for the opposition because they are constantly looking over their shoulders at the armed groups while atrocities and the terrible humanitarian situation continue."
Syria's continuing international isolation was graphically underlined on Tuesday when the plane flying Muallem and fellow delegates to Switzerland was reportedly temporarily "prevented from refuelling" after it landed at Athens airport. The apparent reasons was that the Greeks were concerned about breaching EU sanctions on Syria.
Wednesday's session will be long on formal speeches and short on action. The signs are that Syria and Russia will try to turn the one-day conference into a forum for condemning terrorism, while the US, the west, the Arabs and Syrian opposition focus on Assad's human rights abuses.
If there is drama it is likely to come on Friday when the Syrian parties are due to meet for the first time at the Palais des Nations in Geneva under the chairmanship of Lakhdar Brahimi, the veteran Algerian mediator representing the UN and the Arab League. His predecessor, Kofi Annan, resigned in frustration.
The opposition team will be led by the SNC president, Ahmad al-Jarba, who last weekend won a vote by the narrowest of margins to attend the conference. UK officials are trying to persuade other Syrian opposition groups, currently boycotting, to join and to present a more united front.
But the signals from Damascus have not been encouraging. Only days ago Syria's national reconciliation minister, Ali Haidar, warned: "Don't expect anything from Geneva II. Neither Geneva II, not Geneva III nor Geneva X will solve the Syrian crisis. The solution has begun and will continue through the military triumph of the state."
Aid agencies say they hope that even if there is no progress on Syria's political future, the talks can help alleviate a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. "Political alliances of self-interest trap homeless Syrians in diabolical living conditions or in states of staggering despair," said Leigh Daynes, director of Doctors of the World UK. "They cannot wait any longer for the political settlement that is needed to end this unacceptable, shocking cycle of violence."
From jazz to diplomacyMontreux is an hour's drive from Geneva, home to UN headquarters. Hotels in Geneva were already fully booked for a luxury watchmakers' convention when the long-delayed date for the Syrian peace conference was fixed.
Overshadowed by Geneva - where negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme saw a dramatic breakthrough last November - Montreux has not featured memorably in the annals of diplomacy since 1936, when the Montreux convention gave Turkey control over the Bosphorus strait and the Dardanelles, and regulated the transit of warships. These days the town is perhaps best known for its international jazz festival. The media centre is named after the US trumpeter Miles Davis. The town also boasts a statue of Queen singer Freddie Mercury, who lived here.
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