The German chancellor's hat-trick puts her at the helm in Europe – and that's good news for David Cameron
Across Europe, political leaders watch Angela Merkel with awe and envy. And rightly so. The German chancellor didn't just get re-elected on Sunday, a difficult enough task for leaders in post-crash Europe. Merkel won her hat-trick of victories in the most serene electoral performance of her career, pushing her centre-right CDU party's vote up by nearly eight points, and coming within a whisker of winning Germany's first overall majority since the days of Konrad Adenauer, more than half a century ago.
The only cloud in Merkel's sky was the historic collapse of her junior coalition partners, the liberal FDP, who failed to win any seats in the Bundestag for the first time in 60 years. That leaves Merkel with the problem of trying to persuade either the Social Democrats, or conceivably the Greens, to come into a coalition which they may see as a fatal embrace. The nations of the eurozone's southern periphery will be hoping that some such deal is struck, as we all should, since a coalition with either of them holds out the hope of a relaxation of Merkel's strict pre-election budgetary orthodoxy.
The Guardian dubbed Merkel the Special One yesterday. And as an election winner that's exactly what she is. Consider these freshly minted popularity ratings. In Britain, David Cameron has a favourable/unfavourable rating of 40%/52% – giving him net unpopularity of minus 12. In France, François Hollande's record low rating is 23%/76% – net unpopularity of minus 53. In Germany, by contrast, 70% think Merkel is doing a good job, against 30% who think she is doing a bad one – a net popularity of plus 40.
What is Merkel's secret? The start of the answer is obviously that she is the leader of Europe's richest and most dynamic economy. Germany's economy is growing again, unemployment is low, the budget is in balance, interest rates are on the floor. Times are pretty good, and getting better for many Germans. Compared with the economic carnage elsewhere in the eurozone, – unemployment rates of 28% in Greece and 26% in Spain, mounting deficits and increased borrowing in France and Britain – Germany remains an oasis of relative calm and prosperity. Crisis, what crisis?
But Merkel's success cannot simply be explained by her good fortune in being the leader of Germany. Even when faced with large German bailouts of the eurozone and by sluggish growth, the centre-left failed to make its case, just as the centre-right triumphed. The centre-left SPD remains stuck in its now much diminished core constituency – echoes of Labour here in Britain. So do the Greens and the Left party, both of whom slipped back.
Yet Merkel has also won because of her own deft skills. Her republican centrism means that voters from other parties like her – one in six SPD voters preferred her as chancellor. Her willingness to adapt to circumstances, most notably in her U-turn over nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster, is the antithesis of conviction politics. Add to this her inclusive image and her attractively unpretentious style, and you have a winning combination for difficult times. Merkel's success in appealing across Germany's fragmenting party divides is a lesson from which traditional tribal politicians in Britain could learn too.
What will it mean for Europe? Merkel sometimes gives the impression that she takes each decision as it comes. But Berlin knows that the eurozone and the EU need serious attention before Germany's next election in 2017. So this victory gives her an immense opportunity to write the script for Europe's future.
In an era of weak governments and unpopular leaders in Europe, she is uniquely positioned now to shape the next decade and more. In that context, the performance by the eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland, who finished just short of the 5% Bundestag threshold, was another perfect result for Merkel. She does not have to take account of them in order to govern, but she knows they are out there, and will be wary. It would be in character for her to temper her European strategy accordingly.
From Britain's point of view, her re-election could be fascinatingly significant. With Merkel at the helm in Europe, moderate Tory eurosceptics like David Cameron have someone with whom they can deal and who also carries real authority here. For Cameron, an EU deal with Merkel would make an EU referendum victory, assuming he wants it, far more likely. If Merkel wants to – and if she means it when she says she wants the UK to remain in the EU she should want to – she is now in a position to influence the British debate on Europe in a more positive way than any continental European since Jacques Delors. On the great issue of Europe, the re-elected and strengthened Merkel may even help save the British from themselves. Let's hope she does.
Angela MerkelGermanyEuropeDavid CameronMartin Kettletheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds |
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