Could Pedro Passos Coelho become our second prime minister in two years to be toppled by the backlash against austerity?
Portugal's government is on the verge of collapse, and the script of its demise couldn't have been more dramatic. On Monday, the finance minister, Vítor Gaspar, the widely criticised architect of the country's €78bn bailout plan, resigned. On Tuesday, minutes before his successor, Maria Luís Albuquerque, was sworn in, news broke of the resignation of foreign minister Paulo Portas, the leader of the centre-right party in the coalition government.
Then came another twist: the prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, refused to accept Portas's resignation and gave a public address in which he said he would "not abandon Portugal". In an attempt to block Portas' coup, Passos Coelho also said that he wanted a dialogue with the junior party and to avoid early elections. The collapse of the Portuguese government increasingly resembles a tragi-comedy.
One TV image summed up the awkwardness of the situation: as Albuquerque was signing her ministerial vows, Paulo Portas's parting statement was being shown in the background. Albuquerque, who was previously the treasury secretary, starts her new job still carrying the baggage of a recent scandal relating to swap contracts in state companies. You can't help thinking: for how many hours will she be in her job?
The key question, though, is how long Passos Coelho will be in office. Could he become the second Portuguese prime minister in just two years to be toppled by the backlash against the troika's austerity programme, after José Sócrates in 2011?
Gaspar had announced his departure from the government in a harshly worded letter in which he criticised the conflicts within government triggered by his bailout programme – in effect, he was criticising the opposition he had faced from figures such as Portas, who had spoken out against the pension cuts. Portas was briefly promoted to number two in government after Gaspar's resignation, and had been tasked with overseeing cuts and to plan state reform.
The troika – the European Commission, the Central Bank and the IMF – will visit Portugal in two weeks to assess how the country is managing the €78bn bailout. Many are very worried about whether Portugal's government will be able to hold its own in negotiations. If Passos Coelho stays, he won't be able to run an unmanageable government for too long. The best alternative would be to hold the elections early, and that's what people are crying out for on the streets. The big question now is what the president, Aníbal Cavaco Silva, a supporter of Gaspar's austerity measures and Passos Coelho's government, will decide to do.
If he calls for an election, the alternative to the current coalition government would be António José Seguro, leader of the centre-left party, PS. Though he is generally regarded as a weak leader, overall discontent will probably make him the favourite. If Seguro does become Portugal's next prime minister, though, his task won't be very different from that of Passos Coelho: like Italy and Greece, we live in troikaland, and our real prime minister is the troika. And can anyone topple the troika?
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