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Wednesday, June 12, 2013

FTSE falls for third day to seven week low on takeover tales and Greek woes

Leading shares hit by corporate and eurozone worries, as well as continuing central bank concerns

Two takeover developments and renewed trouble in Greece have combined to send shares lower for the third day running.

After a brightish start the FTSE 100 finished 40.63 points lower at 6299.45, its third daily fall in a row and its lowest level since 22 April. Investors continued to be concerned about the prospect of central bank money taps being turned off and removing a key support for the market. This week's decision by the Bank of Japan to keep monetary policy on hold fed into that fear, and next week's US Federal Reserve meeting will be closely watched for further clues.

Meanwhile in Greece, the government's decision to close the state broadcaster led to demonstrations and talk of a vote of confidence, even a new election.

As for the takeovers, one was a failed bid and the other a new one.

Severn Trent slumped 172p to £17.65 after its potential bidder, the LongRiver consortium, announced it was walking away, having failed to engage in constructive talks before Tuesday's deadline. LongRiver, comprising Canada's Borealis, a Kuwait sovereign wealth fund and the UK Universities Superannuation Scheme, was offering £22 a share.

Severn is now below the £18.25 level prevailing before the bid was revealed. Analyst Verity Mitchell at HSBC said:

Given that the previous offers for water and sewerage companies have been successful, this is a surprising development. We had remained cautious about the success of the bid throughout given that it was so close to the 2014 regulatory price review and in the light of the water regulator, Ofwat's, scrutiny of privately-held companies.

Meanwhile Vodafone confirmed long standing, and growing, speculation that it was interested in Kabel Deutschland, saying it had made a preliminary approach but there was no guarantee an offer would be made.

A move on Germany's biggest cable operator would add its infrastructure to Vodafone's mainly mobile network, and at around €10bn, it would be the company's biggest deal since 2007.

Vodafone shares, which also went gone ex-dividend, closed 11p lower at 181p. Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said:

It looks like it wants to spend on M&A now, which brings risk to the table with the possibility of acquired assets failing to deliver growth desired and needed to revive growth in a stagnant Europe.

Miners came under pressure as investors avoided riskier assets, with Vedanta Resources down 40p at £11.49 and Randgold Resources falling 111p to £48.15.

But Aberdeen Asset Management recovered a little from its recent poor run, rising 6.7p to 402.5p.

Elsewhere BT added 4.3p to 309.3p after analysts at Exane BNP Paribas raised their price target from 250p to 277p. BSkyB was 10.5p better at 788.5p for a similar reason, as Exane lifted its forecast price from 920p to 970p. There was also talk that News Corporation could have another tilt at the satellite broadcaster.

National Express accelerated 3%, up 6.2p to 212.4p, despite one of its biggest investors selling its remaining stake in the transport group for around £101m. UBS placed 50.6m shares at 200.5p on behalf of US hedge fund Elliott Advisors, its last remaining shareholding after it sold a 9.9% stake in March.

Heritage Oil, which is in danger of being demoted from the FTSE 250 to the small cap index at the latest reshuffle, jumped more than 4% to 142.4p following news that production at its flagship project in Nigeria had recovered after a period of low output. In April the company unsettled investors by failing to give an output forecast for 2013. Now it says:

The temporary factors which caused lower than expected production levels over the first quarter have been successfully addressed. We are on track to meet our production target for the year.

Meanwhile price comparison site Moneysupermarket.com led the FTSE 250 fallers, down 14.7p to 183.8p, mainly due to its shares going ex-dividend. But analysts at Canaccord Genuity issued a buy note, saying:

[Its valuation] looks attractive for a structural growth story, with a strong brand, which is raising the barriers to entry.

Online fashion retailer Asos added 51p to £40.32 after reporting a 45% rise in third quarter sales to a better than expected £194m. Its recent tie up with Primark has seen "phenomenal" demand in the first week of its trial, the company said. Bethany Hocking at Investec said:

Our target price moves to £48 [from £39]. On a five year view, we see £70 as eminently possible.

Finally Intandem Films fell 33% to 0.65p after raising £831,000 with a placing at 0.5p a share. The company - which has nine films on the slate with four fully financed including a comedy thriller called Killing Hasselhoff starring David Hasselhoff himself - has also arranged a £1m funding facility with investment group Darwin Strategic. The funds will be used to pay down debt, to invest in new projects and for working capital.


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