European commission backtracks on previous forecasts, blaming a lack of bank lending and record unemployment for the delayed economic recovery
The eurozone will remain mired in recession in 2013 and leading nations such as France and Spain will miss debt-cutting targets, the European commission has admitted, as it backtracked on forecasts that the 17 country-bloc will grow this year.
The European Union's executive body blamed a lack of bank lending to households and businesses, and record joblessness, for delaying the recovery. Unemployment in the eurozone is set to peak at 12% in 2013, or more than 19 million people, it said. Greece and Spain will be the worst hit countries, with jobless rates of 27% this year.
The estimate highlights the widening chasm between Germany and France, the two largest eurozone economies, amid warnings this week that France is drifting closer to the bloc's periphery than its main economic rival. The commission predicts that Germany will grow by 0.5% this year, while France is expected to eke out just 0.1% growth. Joblessness among the French is expected to hit 10.7%, compared with 5.7% in Germany.
Marco Buti, the commission's director general for economic and financial affairs, said unemployment remained "unacceptably high". This had "grave social consequences", he said, and could weigh on growth in the future if it becomes entrenched. The figures also have consequences for the UK because the eurozone is the economy's largest trading partner and is the fulcrum of hopes for an export-led recovery in Britain's finances.
The commission said the threat of a break-up of the eurozone had receded and financial market conditions had improved substantially, but the impact had not yet fed through into the real economy. As a result, it said the 17 eurozone economies would contract by 0.3% in 2013 rather than grow by 0.1%, as previously predicted.
The figures harboured bad news for Spain and France's debt-cutting targets. Under EU budget rules, eurozone states can face fines if they fail to take action to meet deficit targets – the difference between income and spending – set by EU finance ministers. The main struggler is Spain, which badly missed the deficit target of 6.3% of GDP for 2012 with a result of 10.2%. This year, Madrid will have a deficit of 6.7% rather than the 4.5% it has been set. And unless government policies change, Spain will have a gap of 7.2% in 2014 against the target of 2.8%, the commission said.
France will also miss its targets. This year's shortfall will be 3.7% rather than the 3% agreed with the EU, because of weaker-than-expected growth.
There was a silver lining in the figures for the wider zone, however. The commission said the region has bottomed out and it expects economic activity to gradually accelerate, with GDP 0.7% higher in the last quarter of 2013 than in the same period last year.
The commission expects domestic demand to rebound in 2014 and take over from exports as the main driver of strengthening GDP growth.
Economists said the grim forecasts could prompt the commission – which is part of the troika of lenders to crisis-hit countries – to ease its demands of austerity from eurozone governments, while the European Central Bank may be moved to adopt measures to boost the economy.
Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: "A downward revision to the EC's economic growth forecasts for the eurozone suggest that governments will be given more time to reduce budget deficits without implementing harsher austerity measures, while at the same time putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide a further boost of stimulus, perhaps via a cut in its main policy rate."
Williamson said the weaker forecasts were a blow for the UK, which depends on the eurozone for export growth. "Given the outlook of persistent weak demand at home and a further year of contraction in the eurozone, there appear to be few drivers of UK economic recovery in 2013," he said.
The commission predicts that the UK economy will grow by 0.9% this year, although joblessness will rise to 8%. The wider European Union of 27 member states is expected to grow by 0.1% this year, with a jobless rate of 11%.
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