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Thursday, November 22, 2012

FTSE continues its rise led by strong SABMiller results

Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving, better manufacturing results in China and Middle East ceasefire adds to calm

The rise and rise of the FTSE 100 continues this morning, with the leading index up 23 points, 0.4%, at 5775. It has gained 165 points since last Friday's close and has risen every day this week.

Wall Street is closed today as the US celebrates Thanksgiving, so don't expect any giant leaps in European markets.

However, there is plenty of corporate news around to keep the London market busy.

Leading the way is brewer SABMiller, storming away with a 6% rise, up 158p to £27.91, after a strong set of half year profits.

The world's second-biggest brewer, behind brands including Peroni, Grolsch and Fosters, saw pretax profits jump 12% to $2.28bn for the six months to September, compared with $2.04bn during the same period a year ago.

The boost came from an $11.8bn purchase of Australia's Fosters beer, along with growth in Latin America. This offset a 10% fall in Europe. But the share bounce was helped by a 12% rise in the interim dividend to 24 cents.

Emerging markets continue to play a huge part, however, bosses admitted growth in China, where SABMiller owns the biggest beer, Snow, has slowed (or "moderated" as they put it).

Despite coming in above consensus, Pablo Zuanic, at Liberum Capital was unimpressed and said the stock jump was an overreaction.

He wrote:

Yes, Latin America was better than expected in terms of total EBITA (4% above consensus), with solid margin gains of +140bp yoy (in what is the company's highest margin region), but Asia (inc Foster's) and Africa ex South Africa were 4-5% below expectations; for the most part NA and South Africa EBITA was in line.

As we look into 2H13 we see more downside than upside: a) management's mention of 2Q slowdown in Latin America, b) pushing out of flattered volume growth in Europe due to Euro 2012, c) comments by MillerCoors that margin expansion in the next two quarter (in terms of SAB fiscal halves) will be below the 1H pace.

Elsewhere, better manufacturing data from China and the US helped lift several of the big mining companies, but not by the same levels we saw earlier this week.

Evraz was up 8.9p, 3.9%, at 235.2p; ENRC up 5.6p, 2.1%, at 274.6p and Kazakhmys up 11.5p, 1.7%, at 694.5p.

At the other end, Lloyds Banking Group was the biggest faller (although, not by much) down 0.4p, 0.9%, at 45.3p as non-executive director Martin Scicluna resigned to take up his new position as chairman of RSA Group.

On the market overall, Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, said:

With some supportive data (US, China, France) and a Middle East ceasefire helping rekindle risk appetite. This has helped the UK flagship equity Index continue its rebound from multi-month lows (contrary to our forecast). From here, the question is whether/where resistance sets in, fuelled by any Eurozone concerns (Greece, budget) or whether both will see quick resolution helping the market power back to long term falling highs at 5910. A real mix helping out today: oil, banks, miners and defensives. Little in terms of hindrance.


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