Pages

Friday, November 23, 2012

FTSE 100 has best week for nearly a year but Tesco fails to inspire investors

Leading index adds £54 since Monday, its best weekly performance since early December last year

Tesco, which is attempting to revive its UK business after a profit warning earlier this year, must have hoped for a boost after an investor trip earlier this week designed to show off its latest innovations.

The visit took in an automated warehouse in Enfield, built to fulfil online orders, and a couple of revamped stores in Hertfordshire and London.

But while analysts were impressed enough with what they saw, they repeated their caution on Tesco's prospects, given the difficult consumer climate in the UK and continuing doubts about its stuggling US business Fresh & Easy. Tesco, which issues a third quarter trading update on 5 December, edged up 0.65p to 318p, exactly the same level as before Tuesday's visit.

Tesco's investment in its web business could put further pressure on rival Ocado. But Ocado received some good news this week, as it successfully raised £36m and extended its bank facilities, giving it some breathing space. Its shares rose 0.3p to 74.8p.

Philip Dorgan at Panmure Gordon kept his sell rating on Ocado, despite admitting it now had the funds to survive for some time:

Ocado is still operating an inefficient model, growing below City expectations and its multichannel competitors. Going forward, much will depend upon February's launch of [its second warehouse]. That said, the monkey is off their back and management now has considerable breathing space.

Elsewhere among the retailers, Dixons Retail was in focus as analysts said it should benefit from the demise of rival Comet. Morgan Stanley said:

We believe that [Dixons' subsidiary] Currys will gain around 40% of Comet's lost sales, driving 12% UK like for like growth next year. Dixons' balance sheet is stronger than it has been for several years and the group is rapidly becoming very cash generative. Unlike HMV, the products that Dixons sells are not in structural decline and there are still more than 1,000 independents in the UK electricals market from whom to take share.

Dixons closed 0.21p higher at 26.01p, while Kingfisher climbed 3.7p to 280.7p as UBS issued a buy note ahead of the DIY group's latest update on Thursday.

Overall, leading shares ended the week on a positive note, with the FTSE 100 closing 28.11 points higher at 5819.14, the first time it has risen five days in a row since early August and its best weekly rise for almost a year. Sentiment was helped by a strong performance from Wall Street, which was closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving but seemed to make up for lost time in a curtailed Friday trading session with an increase of nearly 1.5% increase.

Over the week the FTSE 100 has added around 215 points - or around £54bn - despite a meeting of Greece's international lenders failing to resolve the country's debt crisis and the collapse of the summit on the EU budget. Investors took heart from some reasonable economic data from China, the US and Europe, including a positive German business confidence survey, and remained optimistic that Greece would receive the necessary funding at - yet another - meeting next week.

The German confidence survey gave a lift to industrial groups including GKN, up 4p at 218.4p, and IMI, 17p better at £10.17.

Elsewhere the legacy of an $11bn UK acquisition came back to haunt American technology group Hewlett-Packard.

The US computer and printer group said it was writing $8.8bn off the value of Autonomy, the Cambridge software business it bought last year at what was widely believed at the time to be an inflated price. HP said it had discovered "serious accounting improprieties" at the UK company and "a wilful effort by Autonomy to mislead shareholders." It said a whistleblower had come forward after Mike Lynch, who co-founded Autonomy and sold the business to HP, left the US company in May.

Lynch immediately denied the claims, which have been passed on to UK and US regulators.

HP's shares are down around 10% following the revelation. Meanwhile video search business Blinkx, spun off from Autonomy in 2007, was caught in the fallout of the allegations. Its shares fell 11% to 67.75p as the news emerged on Tuesday before recovering some of its losses to close 3p higher at 70p.

HP owns nearly 13% of Blinkx while Lynch holds a 6% stake, which could lead to continuing volatility in the shares. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity said:

We strongly believe that [the initial] reaction in Blinkx's share price was both illogical and excessive. The businesses – and revenue models – are very different and there is no suggestion of any accounting irregularities or improprieties at Blinkx. While HP does have a 12.6% holding in Blinkx following the Autonomy acquisition last year, we reiterate our view that HP has a number of financial stakes in technology and digital media businesses and has given no indication of its intention to dispose of its stake.

It was a busy week for the mining sector, with shareholders and regulators finally approving the long-drawn out merger between Xstrata, up 6p at £10.20, and Glencore, 2.15p better at 342.85p. But a controversial management retention scheme was thrown out by investors.

Lonmin, where Xstrata has an 8% stake, cleared its own hurdle, as an $817m cash call to bolster its battered balance sheet was given the go-ahead on Monday. Its shares closed down 7.7p at 291.4p.

Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation made another move to assuage investor worries about its corporate governance after various boardroom battles.

Former banker Mehmet Dalman, who became chairman earlier this year promising better transparency, was given a number of executive functions, but the Kazakh mining group stopped short of making him executive chairman, as some had anticipated.

The shares added 2p to 274.5p despite news that UBS had removed ENRC from its most preferred list "as we expect no short term catalysts for the stock."

SABMiller rose 33p to £28.34 after a number of brokers - including Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Societe Generale - raised their price targets following the brewing group's better than expected figures on Thursday.

On the speculative front, BG rose 3.5p to 1076.5p on revived talk it was in the sights of a number of possible predators, including Petrobras.

Finally Chemring, the defence company where Carlyle Group decided not to bid, climbed 2.5p to 231.7p on talk other private equity businesses might be interested.


guardian.co.uk © 2012 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds


READ THE ORIGINAL POST AT www.guardian.co.uk