Drugs giant tipped for a deal after halting share buyback programme, with Forest Laboratories mentioned again
AstraZeneca's surprise move on Monday to halt its share buyback programme has prompted talk that the pharmaceuticals group could have its eyes on an acquisition to boost its drug pipeline.
A number of possible targets have been mentioned in the past and some of them are being rolled out again in the wake of the decision by new chief executive Pascal Soriot to preserve cash. US group Forest Laboratories is one name tipped for a possible deal - not for the first time. The two have some overlap in the areas of treatments for depression, asthma, and cardiovascular diseases.
With a price of $50 a share suggested, any move on Forest would cost Astra more than $10bn to complete.
Analyst Savvas Neophytou at Panmure Gordon cut his recommendation on Astra from buy to hold, partly on concerns the company might leap into takeover action:
The timing of [the buyback] announcement and strategic rationale (building M&A war chest) remains puzzling. We do not believe there is anything sinister at play but, in a best case scenario, an M&A overhang has been placed on the shares which necessitates our downgrade.
Reading between the lines, the probability of a 'strategic' (cf. dilutive) acquisition has increased significantly. This will be welcomed by many US based investors looking for some 'vision' but many more recent investors attracted by the company's shareholder distribution credentials will be left somewhat bemused in our view.
Astra closed 14.5p higher at £29.08.
Overall investors remained cautious amid the continuing eurozone crisis, awaiting news of any Spanish bailout and the outcome of the tortuous Greek budget talks with its international creditors. Reasonable US data, including jobs numbers ahead of Friday's non-farm payroll figures, provided some support in late afternoon. So the FTSE 100 finished 16.36 points higher at 5809.45.
International Airlines Group, the owner of British Airways and Iberia, saw its shares take off after a positive update for September.
The month's traffic figures showed a 5.1% rise compared to a year ago, with premium traffic up by 8%. Within that BA rose 7.6% but Iberia - hit by the economic problems in Spain - fell 0.8%. The airline group said:
Underlying market conditions remain unchanged from guidance given at the second quarter results. Trading conditions at our London hub remain firm. Performance at Madrid continues to be impacted by weak economic conditions, with short haul traffic particularly affected.
The shares - up 4.7p to 163.7p - were also lifted by the continuing hope that Qatar Airlines would join its Oneworld alliance, as well as talk the Qataris could be interested in the 12% stake in IAG held by Spain's Bankia Fondos - a consequence of the merger of Iberia and BA.
Meanwhile Easyjet climbed 21p to 615p after the low-cost operator said its profits received a boost from Britons fleeing the wet summer weather or deciding on a late break after the London Olympics. So it now expected profits of £310m to £320m for the year, up from earlier estimates of £280m to £300m.
Still with transport, FirstGroup shares plunged nearly 21% - down 50.6p to 193.4p - following the shock news the government had halted the award of the West Coast franchise to the company over irregularities in the bidding process. The move followed complaints from the existing franchise holder Virgin Rail, which is part owned by Stagecoach, up 5.5p at 288.8p.
Elsewhere outsourcing group Capita fell 12.5p to 763p after losing out on a key contract when the Criminal Records Bureau is replaced in a few months with a new service. The CRB is to merge with the Independent Safeguarding Authority to form the Disclosure and Barring Service by the end of the year, with the new service fully operational next March. Capita has been working with the CRB for ten years, but the Home Office is now in talks with another supplier, believed by analysts at Shore Capital to be Tata.
Schroders slipped 6p to £15.37 after UBS downgraded its rating on the asset management firm from neutral to sell. Smith and Nephew dipped 5p to 686p as Morgan Stanley moved from overweight to equal weight.
But a more positive analyst note send British Gas owner Centrica heading in the opposite direction. Its shares added 6.2p to 334p after Citigroup upgraded from neutral to buy with a 360p price target.
Two contrasting performances from two of Britain's biggest supermarkets after their updates. Tesco lost 8.75p to 327.95p, while J Sainsbury jumped 5.7p to 352.5p.
Elsewhere Xstrata added 1.8p to 968.4p and Glencore rose 1.15p to 339.15p after the European Commission said it would decide on the two companies' proposed merger by 8 November.
Among the mid-caps, pharmaceutical group BTG added 30.1p to 363.2 after it said first half trading had been above expectations, with strong demand for its antivenom CroFab during the summer snake-biting season in the US and a good US launch for its cancer toxicity drug Voraxaze. It raised its full year revenue guidance from £190m-£200m to £205m-£215m, and said it was working towards a US application for its varicose vein treatment Varisolve at the end of the year. Analyst Brian White at Shore Capital issued a buy note, saying:
Raising revenue guidance for the second time in six months, BTG continues to successfully re-orientated its business to focus on building a US direct selling capability. Whilst a little light on detail, the trading statement clearly demonstrates that BTG's product portfolio continues to perform well on a number of fronts, boding well for the second half and beyond. We believe the key to growth and further operating leverage lies in management's ability to drive revenues by leveraging the sales platform through the successful introduction of Varisolve (if approved) and to augment its portfolio by successfully acquiring new products.
AG Barr fell 3.2p to 450.8p and Britvic lost 1.4p to 365p after the two were granted an extension to the deadline for announcing a formal merger until 31 October "to consider further the various related aspects" of the deal. Panmure Gordon analyst Damian McNeela said:
We believe that this news represents a slight surprise, given that the companies had already agreed shareholder terms and board composition, but continue to feel that the merger is likely to go ahead. A key consideration is likely to be the level of cost synergies that the combined entity should be able to target. Until we have further details on the likely structure and potential synergy targets of the merger we maintain our hold recommendations on both stocks.
McNeela said the discussions were likely to revolve around, among other things " the extent to which AG Barr's Magna Park expansion in Milton Keynes can be utilised to allow the rationalisation of Britvic's existing manufacturing facility. We would argue that a range of £12m to £20m of gross cost savings should be achievable from the removal of duplication in the merged entity, and believe that further gross synergies of up to £60m could be achieved from the full utilisation of Magna Park, but accept that our initial £150m "blue sky" synergy target on reflection looks to be too ambitious."
Lower down the market, struggling oil rig maker Lamprell issued its fourth profit warning since May, prompting its chairman to call for a change of senior management.
The company has been beset by problems relating to a contract for two windfarm vessels, with late delivery leading to spiralling costs. Now it has also admitted to delays on a separate construction project, meaning it will not receive revenues or profits until 2013, rather than this year. Its shares slumped 40p to 70p - a 36% decline.
Finally Halfords edged up 0.4p to 266p ahead of Thursday's trading update, with talk it may be close to announcing a new chief executive. David Wild left in July after a sharp fall in sales, but analyst Nick Bubb said there were hopes the group would benefit from the Bradley Wiggins effect and the upsurge of interest in cycling after the Tour de France and Olympics. He said:
Sales of other leisure categories and car enhancement will be rubbish, as usual, but overall the market is expecting total retail like for like sales to be down by "only" 1%-2%.
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