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Monday, June 18, 2012

Greek election winner Antonis Samaras under pressure to form broad coalition

European leaders hope large coalition including smaller parties will be able to push through austerity measures

Greece's prime minister designate, Antonis Samaras, is coming under European pressure to cobble together the broadest and strongest possible coalition government in the hope that a sweeping parliamentary majority will be able to push through the draconian austerity programme pledged in return for the country's bailout.

As the centre-right leader opened negotiations on a new government, it was clear that European leaders hoped he would move beyond a "grand coalition" with his rival centre-left Pasok party which would muster 162 seats in the 300-seat chamber. If another two smaller parties were brought in, the new government would command 200 of the 300 seats.

Given the strength and popularity of the main opposition radical Syriza movement led by Alexis Tsipras, the new star of Greek politics, and its potential for fomenting an anti-austerity street campaign, eurozone officials are worried that a narrower Samaras-led coalition could prove unstable and yet buckle.

José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European commission, spoke to Samaras following his election victory and is believed to have pressed him on the strong coalition issue.

"We hope the government will be formed swiftly," said an EU official.

"We hope it will be based on the largest majority, the largest possible to ensure the memorandum," he added in reference to the bailout terms signed by Greece with the troika of the European commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund.

Given the political paralysis for the past two months in Greece, officials in Brussels say the bailout programme is way off track, that tens of billions need to flow to Greece in the next few months to keep the country solvent, but that this can only happen once a government is in place that has recommitted to observing the stiff terms.

Earlier this year, as Greece's second bailout was being fought over, Samaras stalled over signing a letter pledging him to play by the agreed rules. Both the Pasok and New Democracy leaders eventually delivered signed pledges to Brussels on the bailout terms, making it possible to launch the €130bn rescue.

EU officials pointedly argued that the two main parties expected to form the core of the new government had already, before the weekend elections, promised to stick to the programme, which is widely reviled in Greece.

Under the bailout terms, Greece is supposed to announce €11.7bn in spending cuts this month to keep qualifying for the flow of eurozone and IMF funds. It also has to repay €3.8bn of debt in August.

The troika teams are to go to Athens to scrutinise the books as soon as a government is formed, which could be this week. They were supposed to go in May but delayed because of the election campaign.

The Europeans also withheld €1bn in funds to Greece.

But if things go according to plan, the Greeks would qualify for a bumper payout of €31.2bn, probably in August.

"There have been delays. That has to be faced," said another EU official. "At this point in time, that's no secret."

Although the Samaras victory has been met with huge relief across EU capitals, the New Democracy leader is viewed warily by European policy-makers because of his past record as a populist tub-thumper against the bailout conditions. Senior sources in Brussels said there was a good chance the likely prime minister would show up in Brussels to take part in a meeting of eurozone finance ministers which will grapple with the Greek fallout and how to reinforce the Greek rescue.

The Pasok leader and former prime minister and finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, is also not seen as fully trustworthy.


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