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Monday, June 18, 2012

Greek bank withdrawals set alarm bells ringing

The increasing rate of Greek bank withdrawals explains the growing calls for a pan-European banking system

To understand all the fuss about a potential Greek exit from the eurozone, think about the impact that it would have the banking system alone. Some €44bn (£35bn) of bank deposits have been already withdrawn from the country's banks between April 2011 and 2012 and the fear was that this trend would accelerate after Sunday's elections.

The outcome of the elections - and the chance that the pro-bailout, pro-European New Democracy party will be able to form a government - may have taken the pressure off bank deposits for now. Speculation about a Greece exit from the eurozone - which would cut the value of deposits inside bank accounts as the currency devalues - is fading for now. But this chart, produced by Royal Bank of Scotland analysts, shows just how serious the situation has already become.

It also explains why there is talk of a need for a pan-European banking system. While deposits of €100,000 are guaranteed across the eurozone it is the banking systems within each country (and ultimately the sovereign) that maintains the guarantee.

So, if there are concerns about the strength of banks in one country in the eurozone it is relatively easy for a customer to move their money to a bank in another country that they consider to be stronger than their own.

If deposits were guaranteed centrally, the urge to move money should disappear and is one of the reasons why there are now talks about the need for a pan-European banking system to stabilise the eurozone.

But our correspondent in Brussels notes, this is some way off from being agreed - and means that the data on outflows from banking systems around the eurozone will continue to be scrutinised.


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