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How the world sees Greece
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Greek savings are a 'sensational achievement'
European parliament member Jorgo Chatzimarkakis explains why the Greek government has done a good job in handling the state debt crisis so far - but why it also needs more time. Deutschland EU MdEP Jorgo Chatzimarkakis FDP DW: The German chancellor and the ...
Lawrence Durrell's Alexandria villa faces demolition
Villa Ambron, inspiration for The Alexandria Quartet, may be bulldozed to make way for high-rise apartment block
The Alexandria villa that inspired one of the 20th century's most acclaimed works of literature could soon be demolished, according to its new owner.
Villa Ambron was once the home of Lawrence Durrell, the British author twice shortlisted for the Nobel prize for literature, whose experiences while living at the villa inspired his most famous work, The Alexandria Quartet. But the businessman who owns it says it may soon make way for a high-rise apartment block.
If bulldozed, Durrell's crumbling former home would become the 36th listed building from Alexandria's fin-de-siècle heyday to be demolished in five years, according to campaigners.
Up to 25 of the buildings were destroyed illegally by developers, prompting Alexandria's historians and architects to fear for the legacy of a city that was once one of the grandest in the region. Many of the 1,135 buildings nominally protected by a 2006 preservation order are in serious disrepair and at risk of demolition.
"Alexandria is lost in my opinion," said Mohamed Awad, the founder and president of the Alexandria Preservation Trust, a group set up to help preserve the city's architecture. "We are putting up a fight, but we are going to lose the war in terms of preservation."
Until the 1950s, Alexandria was one of the Mediterranean's most cosmopolitan cities – attracting an eclectic mix of nationalities, religious groups, artists and writers. One of the biggest synagogues in the Middle East – once one of 14 in the city – still stands in sight of several mosques. A Catholic cathedral lies a stone's throw from the seat of the Greek Orthodox church in Africa, and both are sited near Roman ruins. The novelist EM Forster and Greek poet CP Cavafy both lived in Alexandria, while the last king of Italy died there – all in buildings designed by some of the 19th century's leading architects.
Villa Ambron was one of the fulcrums of Alexandria's cultural life. Built and owned by architect Aldo Ambron – one of a then 70,000-strong Jewish community that has all but vanished – the house has been home to dignitaries including Italy's exiled king Vittorio Emanuele III, and leading Egyptian painters Saad el-Khadim and Effat Nagui. "It was the place to be seen if you were an artist," said Awad, who has led the fight to save many of the city's buildings.
After fleeing Nazi-occupied Greece, Durrell lived in the villa's top floor for much of the second world war with his Alexandrian second wife, Eve Cohen – who was the inspiration for Justine, the heroine of The Alexandria Quartet. Durrell wrote the novel Prospero's Cell in the house's distinctive octagonal tower.
Durrell left Egypt after the war, and the Ambron family sold the house in 1996 to a local developer, Abdelaziz Ahmed Abdelaziz. Having already built two apartment blocks in the villa's garden, Abdelaziz says he was granted judicial approval to demolish the villa last March. Awad says the house is still legally protected by the 2006 protection order but nevertheless Abdelaziz claims he will knock it down in January after no conservator raised enough money to buy the site.
"Although I already have the right, until now I haven't demolished the building because I want to keep the memory of Lawrence Durrell alive," Abdelaziz told the Guardian. "But I've been waiting 15 years and soon I won't be able to wait any longer. It will be demolished early in 2014 if I don't get a quick response."
Other developers have been less patient. In early November, the Majestic Hotel, where Forster once lived, saw its distinctive rooftop cupolas dismantled to make way for two more floors. Meanwhile, the nearby Villa Aghion, a renowned house built by the Belgian architect Auguste Perret – whose work in France was designated a Unesco world heritage site – is collapsing due to a lack of maintenance.
Activists do not entirely blame the developers. The government has often failed to punish infringements of planning law, particularly since Egypt's 2011 uprising, which loosened administrative control in many areas of the state. They also acknowledge that owners are given little financial incentive to maintain listed property.
Thanks to Egypt's antiquated rent-control system, tenants of the city's oldest buildings need only pay rent at decades-old rates, meaning that their monthly dues are sometimes now only worth a few English pence.
"I can't blame the owners of the buildings," said Mohamed Aboulkhier, the co-founder of Save Alex, another movement that campaigns to protect the city's heritage. "How can you ask a building owner to turn away a fortune by selling the property if he's not making any other money? How about we give this guy alternatives. Rather than making the building an obstacle, let's turn it into an opportunity, so he doesn't have to turn it into a high-rise block."
But progress is being made. One local businessman, who wishes to remain anonymous, is gradually installing businesses in the ground floors of heritage buildings, and using the profits to preserve the upper floors. Activists hope others might follow suit. Meanwhile, campaigns by Save Alex helped stop the destruction of the Villa Cicurel, another local landmark, and recently persuaded Alexandria's governor to halt construction at the Majestic Hotel.
But activists agree the biggest challenge may be to persuade ordinary people that their heritage is worth preserving – particularly when the frequent collapse of working-class tenements seems a much more pressing problem. "People want basic needs – they want a place to live," said Aboulkhier, who nevertheless has noted a increase in local cultural awareness. "When we used to talk about heritage people would say: what are you talking about? That's a luxury. But you can see people taking the initiative even before us activists."
ArchitectureLawrence DurrellEgyptMiddle East and North AfricaAfricaPatrick Kingsleytheguardian.com © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds |
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Help for Greece from across the Atlantic
KathimeriniHelp for Greece from across the AtlanticKathimerini“It is important that we build ties with candidates before they even move to Washington, while they are still in their states,” he said, adding that that has been the case with some of Greece's closest friends, including Robert Menendez, the senior ...
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British tourists appear set for a comeback to Greece this year
KathimeriniBritish tourists appear set for a comeback to Greece this yearKathimeriniBritish tourists are set for a dynamic return to Greece in 2014 as a report by the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) on the UK market shows, including Greece among the destinations that stand to benefit in the new season. Greece is also among ...
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Brutal hazing at US fraternity likened to Guantanamo Bay
SAE has had nine deaths related to drinking, drugs and hazing since 2006, more than any other Greek organisation, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. In a statement, SAE’s national fraternity organisation said it has “zero tolerance for ...
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Problems linger for Greece in 2014
Problems linger for Greece in 2014NEWS.com.auGREECE has assumed the presidency of the European Union, starting 2014 with a promise by the government to pull the country out of a six-year recession, keep a balanced budget, and effectively end a financial crisis that rattled the euro. "In 2014 ...
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A Greek archipelago for €8.5m, a Maltese passport for €1m and Polish castles ...
The IndependentA Greek archipelago for €8.5m, a Maltese passport for €1m and Polish castles ...The IndependentFor a non-EU citizen with dreams of the good life and a few million in the bank, 2014 could be a good year. First, snap up Maltese citizenship, and thus a European Union passport, for €1.15m (£960,000). Then splurge on a former cardinal's villa in ...
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Central banks must show leadership to rejuvenate global economy
Banks must find balance between continuing to support activity without sowing seeds of another asset bubble
The decade and a half after the tearing down of the Berlin Wall was a golden age for central banks. It was a time of strong growth and low inflation presided over by committees of technocrats charged with taking the politics out of the messy business of setting interest rates.
The European Central Bank was created, the Bank of England was granted operational independence and Alan Greenspan ruled the US Federal Reserve.
Mervyn King, who retired last year after a 10-year stint in charge at Threadneedle Street, described the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s as the Nice decade. That stood for non-inflationary continual expansion and in the west was primarily the result of cheap imports flooding in from China, which kept the cost of living low and enabled central bankers to hit their inflation targets while keeping borrowing costs down.
Times have changed. The six-and-a-half years since the financial markets froze in August 2007 have been anything but nice. Greenspan is no longer called the Maestro – the title of a hagiography by Bob Woodward before the sky fell in – and is instead vilified as a serial bubble blower.
Central banks found that their traditional policy instruments were ineffective as the banks tottered in the autumn of 2008. They resorted to more potent weapons: dramatic cuts in interest rates, the creation of money through the process known as quantitative easing; inducements to persuade banks to lend; forward guidance on the expected path of interest rates to reassure individuals and companies that the cost of borrowing would stay low.
There was no 1930s-style slump and the global economy bottomed out around six months after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. But recovery was slow by historical standards and the global economy has displayed signs of being addicted to the stimulants provided by central banks.
All of them will be under scrutiny in 2014 as the world's central bankers seek a way of getting the balance right between continuing to support activity without sowing the seeds of another asset bubble.
Get it right and the reputation of the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the People's Bank of China will be burnished. Get it wrong and the history books will look back on the crisis and its aftermath as the years when central banks lost the plot and saw their credibility shattered.
The Federal ReserveThe Fed made its intentions clear last month when it announced it was scaling back its quantitative easing programme from $85bn a month to $75bn, with further tapering due to take place during the course of 2014. At the same time, the US central bank softened its stance on interest rates and said unemployment will have to fall to 6.5% - and probably lower - before the cost of borrowing is raised. The low level of inflation means that policy can remain stimulative under its new chairman Janet Yellen, but with growth strengthening, the Fed has to beware repeating Greenspan's mistake in the early 2000s when he left rates too low for too long.
Dhaval Joshi of research house BCA said: "From January the Fed is going to reduce the pace of its asset purchases and shift the policy onus to its forward guidance on interest rates, relying on the credibility of its words and promises. As we are in uncharted territory, the eventual market reaction is unclear, and there is certainly the possibility of disruption."
The European Central BankAfter a quiet 2013, the ECB has a number of big calls to make in the coming year. Not only is the recovery from a long double-dip recession tepid but the euro area as a whole is perilously close to deflation. Greece and Cyprus are already seeing the annual cost of living fall. So the first question for ECB president Mario Draghi is whether to seek to stimulate the euro area economy through quantitative easing – QE – just at the moment the Fed is tapering away its programme.
A second, linked issue, is the strength of the euro, which threatens to choke off exports. David Owen of Jefferies says the ECB has two possible policy options: QE or co-ordinated intervention to weaken the currency. Markets will also pay close attention to the ECB's asset quality review of European banks, when it has to decide whether to come clean about the capital shortfalls many are believed to face. If Draghi is too opaque he will be accused of a cover-up; equally, he will get the blame if a fully transparent approach leads to a run on banks and – because they are large holders of euro area government debt – drives up sovereign bond yields.
The People's Bank of ChinaThe challenge for the PBoC is simple: remove the credit excesses of the world's second biggest economy without causing a hard landing. November's third plenum of the Communist party in Beijing set the Chinese economy on a liberalisation course, a move welcomed by most analysts in the west as likely to ensure the long-term sustainability of growth.
In the short term, though, there is the little matter of easing growth back from the 10% per annum of recent years to 6.5% – 7%. On the plus side, China still has a battery of credit controls that will provide protection against mass capital flight if things start to get sticky; on the debit side, the vast quantity of credit pumped into the economy in 2008 – 09 has led to an overheated commercial property market, heavily indebted local government and industrial overcapacity. An indication of the challenge facing the PBoC was provided by the spike in interbank rates to almost 10% last month – raising fears that a tightening of policy is causing a credit crunch for the banks.
The Bank of JapanJapan is a warning to the ECB of what can happen if deflation is allowed to set in. Just over a year ago, Japan's prime minister, Shinzo Abe, announced a "three-arrow" strategy that became known as Abenomics: radical monetary easing from the BoJ, a Keynesian programme of public works, and structural reform. In the early stages of the programme, the BoJ is doing the heavy lifting, using negative interest rates and quantitative easing to drive down the value of the yen, raise import prices and push inflation up towards its official target of 2%. Japan is especially vulnerable to a slow-down in the global economy which, on past form, would attract speculative money into the yen, drive down prices and force the BoJ into even more unconventional measures.
The Bank of EnglandMark Carney's big innovation at Threadneedle Street has been forward guidance, which he used when governor of the Bank of Canada. This involves a commitment not to consider raising interest rates until unemployment falls to 7%, unless there is the risk either of inflation getting out of control or of a housing bubble that can't be tackled using measures specifically targeted on the property market. But the Bank has underestimated both the speed of the fall in the jobless rate and the pickup in the mortgage market. Carney's fear is premature tightening of policy that will kill off recovery in its early stages, but markets are starting to question whether he can hold the line until the next general election in May 2015.
European Central BankEuropean UnionEuropean monetary unionEconomicsEuropeFederal ReserveUS economyGlobal economyLarry Elliotttheguardian.com © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds |
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"Greek Freak" Giannis Antetokounmpo Gets Major Air Against LA Lakers
Something about Giannis Antetokounmpo makes you want scream "hot damn!" Maybe it's his Optimus Prime-sized hands. Or his 7'3" wingspan. Or his freakishly wiry, athletic frame. Perhaps it's all of the above. Against the Los Angeles Lakers ...
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Greece man charged with robbery
13WHAM-TVGreece man charged with robbery13WHAM-TVPolice say 20-year-old Nathaniel Gill robbed the store at gunpoint, took an undetermined about of cash, then left on foot. After a K9 search, Gill was located at a private resident in Greece. Gill is charged with robbery and is awaiting arraignment in ...Man charged in connection with robbery at Greece businessNews 10NBCPolice: Man robbed linoleum business at gunpointRochester Democrat and Chronicleall 5 news articles »
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Greece’s 2014 Promise and Perils
ATHENS – Greece assumes the Presidency of the European Union Jan. 1, starting 2014 with a promise by the government to pull the country out of a six-year recession, keep a balanced budget, and effectively end a financial crisis that rattled the euro. “In 2014, Greece will return to the markets and start to become […]
The post Greece’s 2014 Promise and Perils appeared first on The National Herald.
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Ex-Defense Official Returns Bribes
ATHENS -A former Greek defense ministry procurement chief who has outlined a widespread scandal in the agency has returned some $9.62 million of $16 million in bribes he said he accepted more than 10 years ago to approve lucrative arms contracts for foreign dealers. Ministry officials said that Antonis Kantas, who said he’d put the […]
The post Ex-Defense Official Returns Bribes appeared first on The National Herald.
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Crisis-hit Greece takes EU helm
Greece on Wednesday began a six-month stint as president of the European Union, as it continues its own struggle against recession and social unrest.
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Yanukovych hopes Greece will help Ukraine integrate with EU
Kyiv PostYanukovych hopes Greece will help Ukraine integrate with EUKyiv PostPresident Viktor Yanukovych hopes that Greece, whose presidency of the Council of the European Union begins in 2014, will help Ukraine with signing a landmark political and free trade treaty with the 28-nation bloc. This was said by Yanukovych in his ...and more »
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Las Vegas Sands Considering Casino in Athens Greece
World’s largest casino operator, Las Vegas Sands, is examining the option of operating a casino in Athens, Greece. The company is considering this option after rejecting plans for the creation of a 30-billion-euros mega-resort in Spain. The head of the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, Sheldon Adelson — when talking to Bloomberg — reported that he is examining the […]
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Greek Farmer of the Year
The “Farmer of the Year” award was given to Mr. Ioannis Lazaridis, this year during an event held on the morning of December 20, at the Greek Agriculture Organization (ELGO) “Dimitra” in Drama, Greece. The award ceremony took place right before an informative event about zeolite. The “Farmer of the Year” institution has been established […]
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Ancient Greek Technology Exhibit in Chania
The citizens of Chania, as well as the visitors of the city, have the opportunity to visit a unique exhibition during the holiday season. Costas Kotsanas’ original Museum of Ancient Greek Technology can usually be found in Katakolo, Greece. However, it will be transferred to Crete until January 6, 2014 in the area of Agyia. […]
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Football: Songo'o, Acosta join Greek club Giannina
Football: Songo'o, Acosta join Greek club GianninaGlobalPostGreek Super League club Giannina announced Tuesday that they have signed Cameroonian winger Franck Songo'o and Spanish midfielder Noe Acosta on 18-month contracts. Songo'o, 26, has played for Spanish clubs Albacete, Real Sociedad and ...and more »
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Beleaguered Greece now President of European Union Council
Starting with the new year, Greece takes its turn as presiding nation of the Council of the European Union – the institutional structure which jointly decides the bloc’s policy directions and legislation with the European Parliament.
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Greece assumes European Union presidency
According to Deutsche Welle this figure is the "lowest in the history of the bloc-wide role." Ekathimerini reported German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble stated the EU presidency offers a great opportunity for Greece, adding: "The presidency will show ...
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Mad Greek Deli prepares to close
Two days before Christmas, a crowd of loyal customers gathered at Mad Greek Deli to receive some less than festive news: The landmark restaurant that has stayed in the same family and served up gyros at the corner of West Union Road and 185th Avenue since ...
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Greek chicken-lemon soup: Healthy, nutritious
Greek chicken-lemon soup: Healthy, nutritiousAppeal-DemocratThis week's recipe is a chicken-lemon soup. Surprisingly enough, every nation on the planet has its own version of chicken soup. For instance, Greek chicken soup is called avgolemono and is made with beaten eggs mixed with lemon, which are added to the ...and more »
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Turkey hopeful of ties with EU during Greek presidency
Turkey hopeful of ties with EU during Greek presidencyHurriyet Daily NewsThe momentum provided in ties with the European Union thanks to the commencement of visa exemption talks and the opening of a chapter after three years could be further boosted during Greek and Italian term presidencies in 2014, the Turkish government ...
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10+1 Greek Entertainment Movers and Shakers of 2013
Greek-French beauty Adele Exarchopoulos won the prestigious Palme d’Or at the 2013 Cannes Film Festival for her portrayal of a teen girl who falls in love with an older woman in “Blue Is the Warmest Color,” in addition to taking home ...
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Ambassador Pearce Speaks USA – Greece Relations at AHI Presentation
Greek ReporterAmbassador Pearce Speaks USA – Greece Relations at AHI PresentationGreek ReporterThe American Hellenic Institute (AHI) hosted a presentation and reception featuring U.S. Ambassador to Greece David D. Pearce, Dec. 10, 2013, at the Hotel Grande Bretagne. The ambassador spoke about U.S.-Greece relations before a standing-room-only ...
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Britain at the crossroads – but which path will it take in 2014?
From the challenges that will be faced by the main party leaders and economic policymakers to the celebrations for Shakespeare's birthday, Guardian writers take a look at what 2014 will bring
Politics: three issues that will shape the nation's futureIt is not too far-fetched to say that 2014 will be the year the UK decides not its next government, but its political identity.
The vote in the European parliament elections in May, the likely verdict of the Chilcot inquiry in the summer on the value of Britain's special relationship with America, and the referendum on Scottish independence in September will be three indispensable waymarks that will help chart the shape of modern Britain.
It is possible that 2014 will be a year of convulsions. Ukip coming first in the European elections, revealing an unstoppable tide of anger demanding an in-out referendum on Europe. The Chilcot inquiry and the British parliament concluding that the conduct of the Iraq war has revealed something rotten in the special relationship with America, and British foreign policy requires a re-evaluation to match that after Suez in 1956.
Finally, the Scots defying the current polls and following the Scottish National party leader, Alex Salmond, towards separation, sending an electric shock through the English, Westminster politics and business. In such circumstances the 2015 general election will feel like an afterthought as numbed English politicians, stripped of authority, stumble to explain the revolution of 2014.
At present it looks more likely that Britain will muddle through 2014, even if it is the year of living dangerously. So Ukip fares well in the European elections, but does not improve on its second place in 2009. Chilcot admonishes Tony Blair personally for too much sofa government and too many easy assumptions, but does not find a conspiracy deliberately to mislead by the American and British political elites. And finally the Scots conclude the risk of breaking away outweighs the romance of independence. The solidity of British political institutions is once again confirmed.
Yet whatever the outcome, all the political parties face their own challenges in navigating these events, challenges that will reveal their readiness to govern. For the Conservatives the task will be not to panic if Ukip does very well in the European elections, driving the Tories into third place. The 2009 benchmark for Ukip is 16.5% of the vote and a total harvest of 2.49m votes. If Ukip does substantially better this time, the Tory right will demand a commitment to an in-out referendum in the 2015 manifesto, the use of the Parliament Act to force through James Wharton's private member's bill on a referendum and ever tougher policies on welfare and immigration.
European elections have a noble history of delivering such temporary bloody noses. In the 1989 elections, for instance, the Liberal Democrats came fourth behind the Greens, and it is not Caroline Lucas who is currently in coalition government.
The wiser heads in Downing Street will call for calm, and tell Ukip voters that "you have had your fun, made your point and now it is time to return to the fold, and get on with the business of keeping the Europhile Ed Miliband from No 10". But polling conducted for Alan Bown, the Ukip donor, suggests Ukip voters are not just ex-Tories, and many of those who have defected from the Conservatives will never return. Still worse, they are not driven by Euroscepticism, but by an attitude to politics.
Ukip's leader, Nigel Farage, will have to show after May that a Ukip vote in 2015 continues to be a serious vote. The aim is to show that in a small number of seats Ukip are the true challengers to Labour, the Liberal Democrats or even the Conservatives. It will use ammunition from the local elections and further polls in marginal seats to make that case.
For the Conservatives it will take the deftest of touches to lure back those Ukip voters, and yet not alienate the centre ground. The harder Cameron presses the immigration buttons, the easier it becomes for Labour to urge 2010 Liberal Democrats – the key to a Labour victory – to vote Miliband and throw out Cameron. Downing Street will require better management than shown so far to break out of this morass of anti-Tory tactical voting.
But Labour has it own internal management issues. Miliband will have to demonstrate by February that he is reducing the influence of the unions. Partial victory is within his grasp. He will also have to tread with caution through the Chilcot inquiry. His own hands are clean on Iraq as he was out of the country, but many big party figures – Tony Blair, Alastair Campbell and Jack Straw – will deeply resent it if he throws them to the wolves for electoral advantage. Some of Miliband's advisers see Iraq as one of the best ways of breaking with the legacy of the previous Labour government.
But a vote for Scottish separation in September would lead to even greater turmoil in the Labour ranks. It would mean the Scottish working class had upped sticks and deserted Labour. With Scottish MPs excluded from Westminster, Labour would struggle to form a majority government again.
However, Miliband's immediate task is to broaden the living standards agenda that he has brilliantly developed and turn it into a compelling argument about the future prosperity of the country. Labour strategists know the party will come under relentless attack about the return to growth, and the two different big judgments George Osborne and Ed Balls made in the wake of the 2010 election. If the election is as much about the best response to the crash of 2008 as the shape of Britain in 2020, Labour loses.
A lot of policy work will finally bear fruit – the Adonis commission on industrial growth, the Lyons review on house building and the IPPR thinktank's report on the condition of Britain. Labour will use these cards to argue the Tories are creating a false recovery based on consumption and debt. On this economic issue, unlike the deficit, Labour can also create a vital wedge between the Tories and Liberal Democrats as Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat business secretary, has deep qualms about a recovery built on a house price bubble.
But Osborne will spend the autumn using every political device to try to pin shadow chancellor Ed Balls down on whether he will aim for a surplus by the end of the next parliament, and whether he will match coalition deficit cuts after 2015-16.
The Labour lead remains at around 6%, but polling on economic optimism, the wisdom of the Tory cuts and political leadership are all starting to point in the Conservative direction. Miliband has shown more courage and guile than many expected. He will need even more to stay ahead in the year to come.
Patrick Wintour, political editor
Economy: the obstacles to growth, at home and abroadA recovery in Britain's fortunes during 2014 will be matched by a desperate argument over how much the economy should be weaned off the emergency measures put in place after the financial crash. Chief among those measures are the ultra-low interest rates that have prevented thousands of businesses and households from going bust.
By the autumn, officials at the Bank of England could be facing serious questions about when, and how much, rates should rise, pushing up mortgage costs and further eating into living standards.
It was the governor, Mark Carney, who announced last summer that Threadneedle Street had set a target date of 2016 for a rise in base rates from the current 0.5%. Central bank officials linked a rise in rates to a fall in unemployment to 7%. But at the current rate of private sector job creation, unemployment could hit 7% in the summer.
Carney is likely to find an excuse for sticking to his schedule, mainly because he believes the economy is weaker than some headline numbers appear to show.
All eyes are on the Bank after the chancellor, George Osborne, stuck to his austerity-driven spending targets in the autumn statement last month. Osborne is under pressure to help his party survive the Ukip advance in the European elections in May and do his bit to keep Scotland inside the UK at the independence referendum in September.
He is likely to announce some goodies in his March budget to support colleagues in both fights, but within the current spending straitjacket. An expected rise in tax receipts could give him some room for manoeuvre.
By the end of the year, the longest fall in average living standards could be coming to an end. Notwithstanding a rise in interest rates, most analysts expect pay to start to rise faster than prices for the first time in five years. Osborne's problem will be arguing that a lopsided recovery favouring already wealthy, property-owning households in the south is worth voting for.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research thinktank says London will continue to outstrip the rest of country on every measure in 2014 – job creation, GDP growth, house prices – adding to concern felt by the business secretary, Vince Cable, that the capital "is becoming a giant suction machine draining the life out of the rest of the country".
Troubled economies such as Portugal and Greece are scheduled in 2014 to end their dependence on Brussels for new money, following in the footsteps of Ireland, which exited the EU's bailout programme last month. The euro crisis played a key role in undermining business confidence during 2011 and 2012. A recovery during 2014, after treading water in 2013, is likely to prove another factor in lifting the UK economy.
An end to central bank intervention in the US could be the most crucial economic event. Such is the weakness of the US recovery, the Federal Reserve has spent $85bn each month lending to banks and other financial firms in need of artificially cheap money. The funds have gone mainly into the major banks, in part to help them offload their dodgy loans. The Fed boss, Ben Bernanke, has signalled that 2014 will be the year he switches off the life support machine, leaving the US economy to survive on the near $3 trillion of central bank funds already swimming around the system.
With a large proportion of UK exports heading across the Atlantic, a resurgent US economy is good for UK exporters. But a booming US economy could also attract much of the investment funds that have flowed to the UK following the crash, hitting the value of the pound and raising import prices and inflation.
The Bank of England has pledged to keep inflation near its 2% target. If it rises, Carney may ignore the problem, much as Lord King, his predecessor, did in 2011 when it breached 5%. Colleagues on the nine-strong monetary policy committee may not be so flexible. Either way, Britain would face difficulties, either from high inflation or the knock-on effects of quelling inflation, even before unemployment has fallen to 7% and living standards are climbing.
Phillip Inman, economics correspondent
Arts: Scotland and Shakespeare steal the show1 Scotland awaits The cultural programme surrounding the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow will fizz with an added energy and political urgency as they are set against the independence referendum on 18 September.
In the programme, theatre, dance and circus come together in Grit, director Cora Bissett and playwright Kieran Hurley's ambitious site-specific production based on the life and music of one of Scotland's most innovative and influential musicians, Martyn Bennett. It will be staged in Glasgow's Tramway One, then on Mull during a midsummer weekend. Artist Phil Collins will screen a new film about Glasgow accompanied by a specially commissioned live score in Queen's Park on the south side of the city, while the National Gallery of Scotland is one of the venues for Generation, a look at the last 25 years of Scottish contemporary art. In Edinburgh, Mark Thomson dramatises the 1707 Act of Union in a romp that takes in characters from Daniel Defoe to Queen Anne.
2 The Vikings are coming! For those who missed Pompeii, fear not, the British Museum has another blockbuster on its way. Its exhibition on the marauding Scandinavians will showcase the new gallery in the most spectacular way – with a real longship. From 6 March to 22 June.
3 Shakespeare Part II Celebrations for the bard's 450th birthday started last year but will culminate on the actual day in 2014, 23 April. Lovingly carved by master craftsman Peter McCurdy and his team from pine and oak, the beautiful Sam Wanamaker Playhouse at Shakespeare's Globe in London will stage its first production, the Duchess of Malfi, from 9 January. The intimate and atmospheric theatre will offer a glimpse of how audiences originally experienced the bloodthirsty Jacobean tragedy when it was first performed by the King's Men – Shakepeare's own company. Bardolatry will reach fever pitch in March with Shakespeare Week, while Stratford-upon-Avon will celebrate its favourite son with special performances by the Royal Shakespeare Company in April.
4 From comic opera to Greek tragedy Glyndebourne is staging three new productions this summer: Mozart's La Finta Giardiniera, Verdi's La Traviata and Strauss's Der Rosenkavalier. The relationship between Richard Strauss' life and work will be in the spotlight this year, as celebrations for the 150th anniversary of his birth take over the classical world. Was he a modernist radical, an old-fashoined romantic, or a Nazi sympathiser? The hot ticket in contemporary opera is Julian Anderson's Thebans at the ENO (14 May to 3 June). Directed by Pierre Audi and conducted by Edward Gardner, it's Anderson's most ambitious work yet – can the imaginative composer bring to life the epic, murderous, and incestuous family story of Oedipus, Jocasta and Antigone?
5 Avant-garde heroes old and new Film director, painter, set designer, gardener, gay activist: Derek Jarman was a modern Renaissance Man. Two decades after his death, various events celebrate his prodigious artistic output and legacy. As Tilda Swinton, Jarman's protege and collaborator who appeared in seven of his films including Caravaggio and Edward II, said, "It's important for those who weren't around at the time to know that he was not just some arty type who only a few people were ever aware of and want remembered now. He was a proper tabloid figure in the 1980s, involved in constant argy bargy with moral arbiters like Mary Whitehouse … truly gleeful about his role as public provocateur." At King's College London, where Jarman was a student, immersive exhibition Pandemonium includes rarely seen Super-8 films and elaborate notebooks, while Tate Modern is screening his final film, Blue. A silent, monochrome 75 minutes, it caused quite a controversy when it was broadcast on Channel 4 in 1993, the year before his death from Aids. An artist who shares something of Jarman's anarchic spirit is Marina Abramovic. The performance art pioneer has walked the Great Wall of China, danced with Jay-Z and been the star of Robert Wilson's opera The Life and Death of Marina Abramovic. In one of the biggest events of the art calendar, the global phenomenon In one of the biggest events of the arts calendar, she will be at the Serpentine this summer. The performance art – and the queues – promise to be epic.
6 Worthy successors? How to top the Rolling Stones? Well, Arcade Fire are none too shabby as this year's headliners at Glastonbury. The Canadian band have a formidable live reputation, and should have little problem in getting Worthy Farm moving to the African-Caribbean rhythms of new tracks such as Here Comes the Night. David Bowie guested on the latest, more experimental, dance album Reflector, so expect more of the will-he-won't-he rumours. An appearance by the Thin White Duke? Now that really would trump the Stones.
Liese Spencer, arts editor
Economic growth (GDP)EconomicsScotlandWilliam ShakespeareIraq war inquiryScottish independenceEuropean electionsInterest ratesBank of EnglandEconomic policyPatrick WintourPhillip InmanLiese Spencertheguardian.com © 2014 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds |
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