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Sunday, December 1, 2013
Greece: upgrade by Moody's soured by row with lenders
Greek anti-fascist activists march in Athens
Greece observes World Aids Day with encouraging data, rejecting "unfounded ...
Moody's boosts Greece's credit rating after austerity measures
'Time to make Greek landlords pay': finance minister
Optimistic young Ukrainians look to Europe. I wish them luck
Protesters in Kiev who want to be free of a stifling past and Russian power may find western politicians are not so different
The riot police moved in violently to disperse the furious crowds in Kiev's Independence Square at the weekend, prompting calls for western sanctions from opposition leaders as protesters regroup in other parts of the city. Demonstrations have been going on all week in favour of a historic trade deal with the EU, after President Viktor Yanukovych backed out of the agreement. The turmoil on the streets underscores the stark choice Ukraine faces between the long-term benefits of closer ties with its European neighbours or the immediate fear of a winter without cheap Russian gas.
Students held up banners in English that read "Ukraine is part of Europe!" and "Back to Russia? Oh bitch, pls!". Their target was not local media but the TV cameras of the west, though in nearby European Square another rally has also been in full swing, with slogans in Ukrainian and political parties vying for a piece of the action despite the students' request that they refrain from electioneering at this time. Never one to miss a trick, the jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko went on hunger strike again. It was partly the EU's championing of Tymoshenko, claiming her imprisonment is political, that led to the breakdown of these talks.
It's tempting to think of Tymoshenko as an innocent heroine imprisoned for speaking out against tyranny, a sort of Slavic Aung San Suu Kyi. Tymoshenko's coiled plait of hair – the same hairstyle as my mother's – represents traditional Ukrainian womanhood, custodian of older, simpler values, dressed in white for purity and carrying sheaves of wheat symbolising the land. But like macho Vladimir Putin's oiled pectorals, it's all part of a carefully constructed PR image.For Tymoshenko is no innocent girl from the countryside.
Stories of how she became an overnight billionaire following the collapse of the Soviet Union abound. The obscure charge she was jailed on in 2011 is to do with questionable gas contracts she awarded in 2009. But there's almost certainly an element of government vindictiveness too.
Her nemesis, Yanukovych, was born in 1950 into a working-class family in eastern Ukraine, and rose steadily through the ranks of the Communist party to become governor of Donetsk, a coal and steel city that was once twinned with Sheffield. His political heartland is the rust belt of the Donbass region, with its struggling industries, high unemployment, Greek Orthodox religion, and a mix of Ukrainian and Russian as the everyday language.
Meanwhile, in western Ukraine, which had once been a part of the Catholic Austro-Hungarian empire and still sees itself as part of the west, a growing, vocal nationalist movement has grown ever more impatient with Kiev's continuing links with Russia.
Kiev itself – home of the intelligentsia, poised between the east and the west, cultured, cosmopolitan and historic – is one of the great capital cities of Europe. These three regions are all part of the Ukrainian identity, but coexist under tension that occasionally erupts fiercely, as in the "orange revolution" almost nine years ago.
In 2004, Yanukovych ran for president. His opponent, the charismatic Viktor Yushchenko, seemed a different sort of politician, progressive and westward looking. When Yanukovych narrowly defeated him, the allegations of widespread electoral fraud erupted on to the streets of Kiev in the orange revolution, in which Tymoshenko first came to prominence. This forced a rerun, and Yushchenko won, appointing Tymoshenko as his prime minister.
In office, however, the former allies squabbled constantly, paralysing Ukrainian political life, and disillusioning many supporters. A year later, Yanukovych was re-elected, apparently legitimately. He promoted his allies, clamped down on independent journalists, and jailed his opponents. When Tymoshenko was put on trial, Yushchenko, once her ally, was among those who gave evidence against her, while canny Putin called for her release.
Putin now stands accused by the EU of applying economic pressure to grab Ukraine back into Russia's orbit. He has already embargoed imports of sweets and chocolates from Ukraine, but the more serious looming threat is to do with gas. For gas contracts are at the heart of this story. If Ukraine throws in its lot with the EU, it will have to pay the full market price for gas, losing the concessionary rate enjoyed at present. Such a rise would be catastrophic for precarious Ukrainian businesses and families facing the country's fierce winter with skyrocketing fuel bills. Set against this, the lukewarm blandishments of the EU, which come with IMF austerity strings and the sting in the tail of a pardon for Tymoshenko, don't seem that attractive. No wonder Yanukovych is dithering.
Ukrainian nationalists, faced with Putin's perfectly understandable display of self-interest, have whipped themselves into a frenzy of anti-Russian sentiment. Meanwhile, Yanukovych, finding himself suddenly courted by two great powers, clumsily tries to extract what he can from the situation. From her prison cell, Tymoshenko has requested that her imprisonment should not prevent the signing of the agreement, but she taunts Yanukovych, telling him he's not clever enough to play off Russia and the EU against each other.
For the young people in the square, this whole game of political tit-for-tat is what they reject. For them, the EU represents modernity, transparency in political life, an escape from the stifling embrace of the past, and freedom from Russia's zone of power. They see themselves as part of the global community of youth, complete with tent cities and Anonymous masks. Many young Ukrainians identify with the Scottish nationalists in pulling away from their former colonial power, and believe their nation too can be an independent, modern and prosperous state within Europe. They are educated, idealistic and full of hope. But is the EU ready for them? I wish them luck, but I fear our European politicians are closer in style than they realise to Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.
UkraineEuropeEuropean UnionRussiaGasProtestMarina Lewyckatheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsGreece Sees Deal By EU Summit
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Golden Dawn supporters rally for imprisoned leader's release
Neo-fascist party supporters demand release of Nikos Michaloliakos, held since a party member killed a leftwing rapper
Thousands of supporters of Greece's neo-fascist Golden Dawn gathered in front of the country's parliament this weekend to demand the release of their imprisoned leader Nikos Michaloliakos, in the party's first high-profile rally in months.
Holding burning torches and blue and white Greek flags, black-clad sympathisers converged on Syntagma Square in Athens on Saturday night almost two months after revelations emerged of the extremists' criminal activities.
"Our day will come," demonstrators chanted in an atmosphere thick with smoke, anger and revenge. "Leader, you have ridiculed the system once again."
Michaloliakos has been in pre-trial custody since the September murder of leftwing rapper Pavlos Fyssas by a self-confessed party member. The killing prompted a government crackdown that unmasked the group as a violent paramilitary organisation.
Thirteen Golden Dawn MPs are either in detention, face charges, or have had their parliamentary immunity lifted as prosecutors build a case that its leadership was involved in attacks against opponents and immigrants.
From his cell in Athens' high security Koyrdallos prison, Michaloliakos has vehemently denied the charges and argued he is a political prisoner.
Police estimated that Saturday's demonstration drew around 5,000 far-rightists although the extremists put the number at 50,000, saying it was a wake-up call to the "so-called democratic establishment".
Successive surveys have shown that while the group took a drubbing in the aftermath of the assassination it has rebounded sharply and remains crisis-hit Greece's third biggest political force.
The drive-by shootings of two Golden Dawn members outside the offices of a local Athens branch reanimated support with one polling firm, Metron Analysis, recently finding that 10.5% of voters would back the party. "The nightmare of Golden Dawn is returning," wrote the Sunday Ethnos, which commissioned the report last week. "It is regaining its strength before the blood of Pavlos Fyssas even dries." A poll conducted for this weekend's Sunday Vima showed 7.9% of Greeks would vote for Golden Dawn if elections were held next week.
"Their operational base may have been hit by the revelations," said Dimitris Psarras, the country's leading authority on the far-rightists. "The attacks by hit squads may have stopped but all the reasons why people voted for Golden Dawn still exist," he said. "The party has clearly not lost support among those badly hit by the country's economic crisis."
Officials in the two-party coalition led by prime minister Antonis Samaras privately admit that secret polls conducted on behalf of the governing New Democrats and Pasok Socialists reveal even higher approval ratings. "One poll showed them getting 17%," said a well-placed insider. "They may have become socially less acceptable but it would be naive to think that Golden Dawn is over."
GreeceGolden Dawn partyThe far rightEuropeHelena Smiththeguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsWorld Aids Day: HIV Infection Cases on Rise in Greece, Officials Warn
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Panathinaikos’ hoopsters, a perennial power in the European basketball league championship runs, fell 79-77 to the Spanish team Laboral Kutxa, coming up just short after a hard run at the end of the game following a lackluster beginning for the Greens. Panathinaikos’ big-scoring front line of James Gist, Stephane Lasme, Loukas Mavrokefalidis and Mike Batiste […]
The post Panathinaikos Falls to Laboral Kutxa appeared first on The National Herald.
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S & P’s Ups Cyprus Rating
NICOSIA – As Cyprus struggles with an ongoing economic crisis, an influx of money from international lenders as part of a 10 billion euro ($13.67 billion) bailout has led Standard and Poor’s to raise the long-term sovereign debt ratingl believing there is a smaller chance it will default on its its sovereign debt. The agency […]
The post S & P’s Ups Cyprus Rating appeared first on The National Herald.
Golden Dawn Protests Leaders’ Detention
ATHENS – Hoping to galvanize public opinion, some 1,000 supporters of the far-right ultra-extremist Golden Dawn party protested outside the Parliament on Nov. 30 over the continued detention of its leader and five other of its 18 Members of Parliament. Nikos Michaloliakos and his hierarchy were arrested on charges of running a criminal gang in […]
The post Golden Dawn Protests Leaders’ Detention appeared first on The National Herald.
Qatar said to pull out of Greek airport race
Europe's prophets of austerity brought suffering, not growth
The EU's leaders abhorred stimulus. Now the eurozone is so weak they fear the very idea that the US might stop spending
At the launch of Richard Roberts's new book about the great financial crisis of 1914, Saving the City, Andy Haldane, the widely respected executive director of the Bank of England, confessed that when the recent financial crisis occurred, not many people in the Bank of England were even aware of the economic upheaval that immediately preceded the first world war – a classic case of the modern economics profession's obsession with mathematics rather than history.
If Roberts's book had been available at the time, they would immediately have realised that the 2007-08 crisis was not simply one of the liquidity of the financial system but also of solvency. The penny, or the cent, eventually dropped in official circles.
Gordon Brown has been widely acknowledged around the world – but hardly at all in this country – for having demonstrated international leadership in moves to recapitalise the banking system and, via the coordinated "stimulus" agreed by the G20 in April 2009, to arrest what had become a freefall in world economic activity.
Unfortunately, international understanding of the scale of the crisis and the need for a protracted stimulus proved shortlived. In the runup to the G20 meeting the following June in Toronto, the consensus collapsed: a development lucidly explained in Mark Blyth's book Austerity – The History of a Dangerous Idea.
By the summer of 2010, Brown was out of office, and the German government and the European Central Bank were opposing his allies in Washington who argued that "the withdrawal of fiscal and monetary stimulus… needs to proceed in step with the strengthening of the public sector."
Far from strengthening the public sector, European policymakers, egged on by a new British chancellor called George Osborne, conducted a brilliant propaganda coup, managing to persuade far too many people that the crisis had been caused by excessive public spending – not by the real perpetrators: the banks and other practitioners of the dark arts of modern "financial engineering".
Until the onset of the financial crisis, the ratio of debt to gross domestic product in the UK had been lower than in the final year of the previous Conservative government. Again, the much-maligned Italian government had managed to bring public debt down from 125% to 100% of GDP.
But, with the German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble and, alas, my old friend Jean-Claude Trichet, then president of the European Central Bank, in the vanguard, Europe embarked on a period of "growth-friendly fiscal consolidation", which soon evolved into the oxymoronic label "expansionary fiscal contraction".
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) estimates that between 2010 and 2013 the fiscal contraction in the euro area has amounted to about 4% of GDP on average, although the contraction has been much more severe in countries such as Greece. (Incidentally, anyone who wishes to know how serious the crisis has been in Greece could do worse than invest in Vicky Pryce's updated Greekonomics, which is a riveting read.)
Things have been bad enough elsewhere, but Greece has suffered a decline of more than a quarter in GDP in the past five years. Greece may have been one of the few European countries where public spending actually was out of control, but medicine should not, on the whole, be designed to kill the patient.
The OECD calculated that fiscal contraction next year in the euro area will be "only" 0.5% of GDP. In an interesting analysis, Russell Jones of Llewellyn Consulting notes that with "fiscal consolidation" almost complete in the euro area, "the key question [is] whether the private sector will prove robust enough to establish the economy on a sustainable recovery trajectory".
The eurozone has had its fiscal contraction, which, except in the special case of Germany, was not accompanied by a revival of confidence in the private sector.
It is very interesting that the ECB is concerned about a slowing down or withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve, for fear of the repercussions on a euro area whose banking system remains deeply suspect.
It almost beggars belief that the ECB, after its support for fiscal contraction, should now be crying for help from the Federal Reserve.
Llewellyn Consulting concludes: "In our judgment, investors should…prepare for variations on the theme of outright debt monetisation, fiscal repression, trade and capital controls, and so on."
Our chancellor always blames the situation in the eurozone, not his own austerity policies, for the fact that this economy has "flatlined" for three years. If, in his coming autumn statement, he is relying on a great European recovery, he may be sadly disappointed.
AusterityEconomic recoveryEuropean UnionEconomicsEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyEuropean monetary unionBankingEuroEuropeWilliam Keegantheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsWhat the experts say about Britain's prospects
Six economists give their views on autumn statement
DAVID BLANCHFLOWER
Former member of Bank of England monetary policy committee
Over the three quarters from the last quarter of 2009 to the second quarter of 2010, the UK economy grew by 1.9%. Recall that George Osborne and David Cameron falsely claimed at the time that the economy was "bankrupt" and "like Greece". Now the chancellor is claiming the economy is on the "path to prosperity", based on growth of 1.9% over the last three quarters. Unemployment is higher than it was when the coalition was formed and youth unemployment has risen sharply. GDP per capita is essentially unchanged from when the coalition took office and the deficit reduction plan has stalled. The OBR's own data now suggests that Osborne has lowered GDP by around 1.5% a year by his reckless and failed austerity.
So where is this little burst of growth coming from? It seems that a temporary rise in consumer spending, driven by borrowing and dipping into savings, is the main driver. Maybe I have missed something and all is rosy in the economic garden. Bet I haven't, though.
NICOLA SMITH
Head of economics and social affairs, TUC
The UK's recovery is long overdue and optimists can welcome rising full-time employment levels, falling joblessness and signs that productivity is starting to pick up.
The problem is that these gains are nowhere near enough to secure the fairly shared and sustained recovery that we need. While earnings for the UK's top bankers are up by a third, across the country real incomes are still falling. Recession and stagnation have led to a wage squeeze on a scale last seen by the Victorians. Under-employment continues to rise and, where jobs are being created, a large majority are in low-paid sectors, exacerbating falls in living standards.
The UK is moving back towards its pre-crisis economic model with alarming ease, the importance of tackling our widely decried short-termist culture apparently forgotten.
Rather than conjuring up more financial bubbles, the UK needs fairly paid workers and productive businesses to create growth based on real value.
JONATHAN LOYNES
Director, Capital Economics
Not only has the UK leapt to the top of the G7 growth tables, but there are good reasons to think that the recovery is sustainable. While the recession no doubt did some damage to the economy's supply potential, there is enough slack to allow a number of years of strong growth before capacity constraints are reached and inflation pressures start to build. Indeed, falling inflation could boost growth in the next few years by easing the squeeze on households' spending power.
Meanwhile, fears that the recovery is unhealthily dependent on another housing market bubble look overdone. Yes, the London market looks frothy, but in most other areas the market is not strong enough to have generated an economic recovery. And the economic upturn stretches well beyond housing-related areas of activity. The banking sector remains fragile and households have more work to do to restore their finances. Still, for the first time in a long while, even we practitioners of the dismal science can afford a bit of optimism.
JONATHAN PORTES
Director, National Institute for Economic and Social Research
When the government announced its economic plan in June 2010, it predicted that the economy would by now be about 7% larger, while the deficit would have been reduced by two-thirds. Where are we now? GDP has grown at about a third of that rate, business investment has fallen and the current account deficit has worsened. This remains the weakest and slowest recovery in the UK's recorded history.
Growth was derailed by a combination of bad luck and bad macroeconomic policy, both in the UK and eurozone. Spending, especially public investment, was cut too quickly. While policy was supposed to boost confidence and spur private-sector investment to fill the gap, it did the reverse. It could easily have been worse. The eurozone and global environment is much more benign. Combined with increasingly aggressive action to pump up the housing market, we are seeing a clear, welcome return to growth. It's a pity it's taken so long.
BRIDGET ROSEWELL
Chairman of consultancy Volterra Partners, former chief economic adviser to the Greater London Authority
It seems to be part of our psychology that we don't really believe in recovery until it has almost turned to boom. Over the last year employment has risen by nearly 300,000 in the UK, and in London and the south-east we ought to be worrying about overheating.
Only the north-east and west and the West Midlands are still suffering significant losses of jobs and should be pressing hard to improve their connectivity. Now is the time to liberate further wealth creation by focusing on investment in infrastructure, so that real growth can support future spending of all types and the necessary debt reduction.
Recovery is well established and growth will help to bring down bad debt – used to support current spending – and replace it with good debt – used to support real investments which generate a payback in future growth, wealth creation and the ability to support public services, as well as pay back the loans thus raised.
ANDREW SENTANCE
Senior economic adviser, PwC, and former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee
I believe that the UK's economic growth is sustainable – with the right policies, including a gradual rise in interest rates as recovery continues.
The UK economy is rebalancing, but not as expected. Although manufacturing output has risen in recent quarters, it's well down on the 2008 peak.
Services are leading the recovery, but within that big shifts have taken place between different sectors. Professional and business services lead, with output growth up more than 6% in the past 12 months. Financial services and public administration are around 2% down.
This pattern has been a feature of the recovery since 2009. Parts of the services sector which sell overseas appear to be performing more strongly – bar the financial sector.
This reflects the strength of the country as a services exporter – 12% of UK GDP – a bigger contribution than in any other G7 economy.
Autumn statement 2013EconomicsBudgetHeather Stewarttheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds