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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Eurozone patience with Greece waning
UPDATE 1-IMF sees no urgent funding needs for Greece
Fikay Eco Fashion: banking on buses and boats
Rethinking Fikay Eco Fashion's distribution model helped founder Aaron Jones stay true to the firm's ecological principles
Aaron Jones at Fikay Eco Fashion found a way to cut costs and help the environment by transporting his recycled-packaging bags, wallets and cases from Cambodia to Britain by bus and boat, rather than by plane. The logistics rethink requires a bit more forward planning – the journey takes up to 40 days, rather than two – but it cuts carbon emissions and saves an estimated £22,000 a year in transport costs.
Jones, a 22-year-old final-year student of international enterprise and business development at the University of Essex, started Fikay in 2011 after a gap year in Asia. He spotted bags made from cement sacks and old fish-feed packets – featuring striking tiger, elephant, eagle and cobra designs – for sale at a market in Cambodia, and started researching the supply chain.
After months sourcing and selling test items to friends and family in the UK, Jones decided he had a viable business idea and ploughed in funds from his student overdraft, family and friends.
Fikay works with a Cambodian organisation that provides microloans to local women to buy sewing machines. The company pays them "fair wages" to make bags, satchels and wallets: in a country where the minimum wage is $80 a month, Fikay's workers earn an average of $150 to $250.
"We pay a fair, competitive wage to local villagers who create our bags out of locally sourced, recycled materials," says Jones. "This gives them the opportunity to learn valuable skills that permit them to have a sustainable, effective way out of poverty."
For every sale, Fikay makes a contribution to a school in Siem Reap, in north-west Cambodia – where eight of the workers are based – providing stationery and helping with school fees. Jones's dream is to build schools in the areas where his workers are based.
When Fikay launched, Jones flew stock from Vietnam to the UK. It was quick and easy, but expensive and damaging to the environment, he says. Now, he transports the products by bus from Cambodia to Vietnam, which has better freight-shipping facilities. Then around 80% of his goods make a 30-40 day journey by boat to Tilbury docks, in Essex, with the remaining 20% travelling by air.
"Transporting by boat is trickier to plan," says Jones. "But since 90% of the business is wholesale at the moment, it's OK. If I get an order for 600 to 1,000 units wholesale, then, typically, that has a lead-in time of two months."
As well as being better for the environment, the cost savings are huge, with transport by boat costing as little as $2 (£1.25) a kilogramme, compared with about $9 by air.
Fikay has started selling wholesale to retailers in Russia, Italy and Greece, and is launching a crowdfunding project to sell its first recycled-packaging guitar cases. Jones is also working with an NGO to expand into Rwanda and Uganda.
"When I started Fikay, I knew I wanted to try to make money – but not at any cost," says Jones. "We have made a strategic decision from day one to take ethical responsibility for every part of our supply chain and we want our logistic arrangements to build communities as well as making commercial sense."
Find out how you can enter our Small Business Showcase here. All entries that meet the criteria are published online.
Small Business ShowcaseSmall Business Showcase ShortlistedNick Meadtheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsPost-crash economics: some common fallacies about austerity
Propositions in economics are rarely absolutely true or false – what is true in some circumstances may be false in others
The period since 2008 has produced a plentiful crop of recycled economic fallacies, mostly falling from the lips of political leaders. Here are my four favourites.
The Swabian Housewife: "One should simply have asked the Swabian housewife," said German chancellor Angela Merkel after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. "She would have told us that you cannot live beyond your means."
This sensible-sounding logic currently underpins austerity. The problem is that it ignores the effect of the housewife's thrift on total demand. If all households curbed their expenditures, total consumption would fall, and so, too, would demand for labour. If the housewife's husband loses his job, the household will be worse off than before.
The general case of this fallacy is the "fallacy of composition": what makes sense for each household or company individually does not necessarily add up to the good of the whole. The particular case that John Maynard Keynes identified was the "paradox of thrift": if everyone tries to save more in bad times, aggregate demand will fall, lowering total savings, because of the decrease in consumption and economic growth.
If the government tries to cut its deficit, households and firms will have to tighten their purse strings, resulting in less total spending. As a result, however much the government cuts its spending, its deficit will barely shrink. And if all countries pursue austerity simultaneously, lower demand for each country's goods will lead to lower domestic and foreign consumption, leaving all worse off.
The government cannot spend money it does not have: This fallacy – often repeated by British prime minister David Cameron – treats governments as if they faced the same budget constraints as households or companies. But governments are not like households or companies. They can always get the money they need by issuing bonds.
But won't an increasingly indebted government have to pay ever-higher interest rates, so that debt-service costs eventually consume its entire revenue? The answer is no: the central bank can print enough extra money to hold down the cost of government debt. This is what so-called quantitative easing does. With near-zero interest rates, most western governments cannot afford not to borrow.
This argument does not hold for a government without its own central bank, in which case it faces exactly the same budget constraint as the oft-cited Swabian housewife. That is why some eurozone member states got into so much trouble until the European Central Bank rescued them.
The national debt is deferred taxation: According to this oft-repeated fallacy, governments can raise money by issuing bonds, but, because bonds are loans, they will eventually have to be repaid, which can be done only by raising taxes. And, because taxpayers expect this, they will save now to pay their future tax bills. The more the government borrows to pay for its spending today, the more the public saves to pay future taxes, cancelling out any stimulatory effect of the extra borrowing.
The problem with this argument is that governments are rarely faced with having to "pay off" their debts. They might choose to do so, but mostly they just roll them over by issuing new bonds. The longer the bonds' maturities, the less frequently governments have to come to the market for new loans.
More important, when there are idle resources (for example, when unemployment is much higher than normal), the spending that results from the government's borrowing brings these resources into use. The increased government revenue that this generates (plus the decreased spending on the unemployed) pays for the extra borrowing without having to raise taxes.
The national debt is a burden on future generations: This fallacy is repeated so often that it has entered the collective unconscious. The argument is that if the current generation spends more than it earns, the next generation will be forced to earn more than it spends to pay for it.
But this ignores the fact that holders of the very same debt will be among the supposedly burdened future generations. Suppose my children have to pay off the debt to you that I incurred. They will be worse off. But you will be better off. This may be bad for the distribution of wealth and income, because it will enrich the creditor at the expense of the debtor, but there will be no net burden on future generations.
The principle is exactly the same when the holders of the national debt are foreigners (as with Greece), though the political opposition to repayment will be much greater.
Economics is luxuriant with fallacies, because it is not a natural science like physics or chemistry. Propositions in economics are rarely absolutely true or false. What is true in some circumstances may be false in others. Above all, the truth of many propositions depends on people's expectations.
Consider the belief that the more the government borrows, the higher the future tax burden will be. If people act on this belief by saving every extra pound, dollar, or euro that the government puts in their pockets, the extra government spending will have no effect on economic activity, regardless of how many resources are idle. The government must then raise taxes – and the fallacy becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
So how are we to distinguish between true and false propositions in economics? Perhaps the dividing line should be drawn between propositions that hold only if people expect them to be true and those that are true irrespective of beliefs. The statement, "if we all saved more in a slump, we would all be better off," is absolutely false. We would all be worse off. But the statement, "the more the government borrows, the more it has to pay for its borrowing," is sometimes true and sometimes false.
Or perhaps the dividing line should be between propositions that depend on reasonable behavioural assumptions and those that depend on ludicrous ones. If people saved every extra penny of borrowed money that the government spent, the spending would have no stimulating effect. True. But such people exist only in economists' models.
EconomicsEconomicsAusterityGovernment borrowingRobert Skidelskytheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More FeedsMerkel praises Greek government efforts as troika leaves Athens without a deal
Greece doubles budget surplus forecast
Greece faces no 'acute' financing pressure, says IMF
Greece say fair play saved Romania from World Cup forfeit
Greek government insists end of austerity is in sight
2014 budget presented to parliament ahead of meeting between prime minister Antonis Samaras and Angela Merkel
Amid growing political tensions at home – and increasing exasperation in Europe – the Greek government insisted today that it was finally exiting years of recession as it presented parliament with its 2014 budget.
Ahead of a highly anticipated meeting between the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, and the EU's most powerful leader, Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel, Athens' ruling alliance announced that it expected the country's defunct economy to grow by 0.6% next year
"The sacrifices of the Greek people are paying off," said the deputy finance minister, Christos Staikouras, after finance minister Yannis Stournaras had submitted the bill, adding that the debt-stricken nation would – for the first time in more than a decade – post a primary surplus in 2013.
In further good news, Staikouras revealed that the budget balance – exclusive of interest payments – was expected to exceed €810m, a long-cherished target that would make the country eligible for much needed debt relief. At almost €320bn, Greece's gargantuan debt load is by far the highest in the western world.
Presentation of the 250-page budget came as Athens concluded strained negotiations with the EU, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), the international bodies that have kept its economy afloat with bailouts worth €240bn since May 2010.
After more than two months of on-off talks, the lenders – known collectively as the "troika" – wrapped up a quarterly review of Greece's economic programme saying that while progress had been made, "a few issues remained outstanding".
Elsewhere, the criticism was more blunt. "Many finance ministers of the Eurozone are starting to lose patience [with Greece]," said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch Eurogroup president, echoing the growing disgruntlement that has returned to haunt the country's ties with its creditors.
In sharp contrast to other rescued nations on the periphery of Europe, "Greece still has plenty of work to do", he told the Greek daily Ta Nea, referring to mass layoffs in the public sector, privatisations and other structural reforms Athens has so far put off adopting.
Much of the rancour has focused on the size of a fiscal gap which by 2014 the troika estimates could be as much as €2.9bn. The budget black hole, which opens the prospect of yet more austerity being imposed on a population that has already seen its disposable income drop by 40% since the eruption of the crisis, has placed Samaras's two-party coalition under increasing pressure.
With a four-seat majority in the 300-seat house, MPs have signalled they will vote down extra measures if called upon to pass them. In addition to slashing 25,000 civil servant jobs by 2015, foreign lenders are demanding that the government dismantle the country's loss-making defence industry, close more than 100 public sector organisations and enact a new round of across-the-board pay and pension cuts.
This week, in one of the most dramatic signs of the toll the debt drama has had, the National School of Public Health said the life expectancy of Greeks had dropped from 81 to 78 years since the crisis began. Unemployment is over 27% and poverty levels have also shot up.
In a climate that has become increasingly volatile, the prospect of further belt-tightening has not only sent tensions soaring within the government – which narrowly survived a no-confidence motion on 10 November – but has been met with bitter hostility from the anti-austerity political opposition, led by the radical left Syriza party, currently frontrunner in polls.
Yesterday the party's leader, Alexis Tsipras, joined cleaners protesting against dismissals outside the finance ministry where he vowed that "when we are in government, together we will clean the troika away".
With the rhetoric at such heights, the ruling coalition is refusing outright to implement further cuts.
Stournaras, who has described fresh measures as "dangerous and unnecessary", is adamant the shortfall can be covered by improved tax collection and better management of the social security system.
In a bid to defuse the stand-off, Samaras is expected to appeal to Merkel to intervene when he holds talks with the German chancellor in Berlin on Friday. The prime minister will tell Europe's most powerful leader that Greece's political stability will be put at risk if it is made to adopt more austerity, aides said. On the eve of the talks Merkel sounded upbeat, telling a business conference that changes Greece had implemented were "absolutely remarkable".
But her spokesman warned against over expectation, saying Samaras's visit to Berlin was more about informing the leader than negotiating with her.
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Vatican unveils restored catacomb with frescoes showing 'female priests'
Women depicted in scenes show they were priests, say activists; they were just praying like everyone else, says Holy See
The Vatican has unveiled newly restored frescoes in the catacombs of Priscilla, known for housing the earliest known image of the Madonna and child, and frescoes said by some to show women priests in the early Christian church.
Cardinal Gianfranco Ravasi, the Vatican's culture minister, presided over the opening of the "cubicle of Lazzaro", a tiny burial chamber featuring fourth-century images of Biblical scenes, the apostles Peter and Paul, and one of the early Romans buried there in stacks, as was common in the age of antiquity.
The labyrinthine cemetery complex stretching for miles under northern Rome is known as the queen of the catacombs because it features burial chambers of popes and a tiny, delicate fresco of the Madonna nursing Jesus dating from around AD230-240., the earliest known image of the Madonna and child
More controversially, the catacombs feature two scenes said by proponents of the women's ordination movement to show female priests: one in the ochre Greek chapel features a group of women celebrating a banquet, said to be the banquet of the eucharist. Another fresco in a richly decorated burial chamber features a woman, dressed in a dalmatic – a cassock-like robe – with her hands up in the position used by priests for public worship.
The Association of Roman Catholic Women Priests, which includes women who have been excommunicated by the Vatican for participating in purported ordination ceremonies, holds the images up as evidence that there were female priests in the early Christian church.
But Fabrizio Bisconti, the superintendent of the Vatican's sacred archaeology commission, said such a reading of the frescoes was pure "fable, a legend".
Even though the catacombs' official guide says there is "a clear reference to the banquet of the holy eucharist" in the fresco, Bisconti said the scene of the banquet wasn't a eucharistic banquet but a funeral banquet. He said that even though women were present, they weren't celebrating mass.
Bisconti said the other fresco of the woman with her hands up in prayer was just that – a woman praying. "These are readings of the past that are a bit sensationalistic but aren't trustworthy," he said.
Asked about the scenes, Ravasi professed ignorance and referred comment to Bisconti. The Vatican has restricted the priesthood for men, arguing that Jesus chose only men as his apostles.
The Priscilla catacombs are being featured in a novel blending of antiquity and modern technology. For the first time, Google Maps has gone into the Roman catacombs, providing a virtual tour of the Priscilla complex.
VaticanItalyReligionCatholicismtheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds