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How the world sees Greece
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Coalition in Athens Split on Labor Law Changes
The two junior partners in Greece's shaky coalition government voiced their opposition to demands from the troika of international lenders.
Greek austerity plan gets bumpy ride from smaller parties
ATHENS (Reuters) - A concession from Greece's lenders on Tuesday failed to win over two junior parties in the ruling coalition who blocked agreement on a vital austerity package because they oppose labor reforms. The Democratic Left and PASOK Socialist parties in Prime Minister Antonis Samaras's conservative-led coalition have long opposed unpopular proposals from European Union (EU) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) lenders to cut wages, reduce severance payments and scrap automatic wage hikes. ...
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Buying Food Past Its Sell-By Date Tough To Swallow For Greeks
 NPR (blog) | Buying Food Past Its Sell-By Date Tough To Swallow For Greeks NPR (blog) Austerity measures continue in Greece as the country sinks deeper into a recession. Incomes have dropped nearly 50 percent in some cases, but food prices are at record highs. The Greek newspaper Ekathimerini recently reported that the country has some ... |
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Treasurys Rise; Flight to Safety Boosts 2-Year Note Auction
 Economic Times | Treasurys Rise; Flight to Safety Boosts 2-Year Note Auction Wall Street Journal By Min Zeng. A flight into safe assets Tuesday boosted demand for a $35 billion auction of two-year U.S. Treasury notes. The sale, the first leg of this week's $99 billion in new Treasury note supply, posted the strongest overall demand since November 2011. Spanish Bonds Fall After Economy Shrinks as Greek Debt Tumbles Yields mixed at Spain short-term debt auction Spain's central bank says economy shrank 0.4 percent in 3rd quarter, repeating ... |
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Greek PM: Negotiations With Troika Will Continue
Greek PM: Negotiations With Troika Will Continue ForexLive (blog) Greek PM: Negotiations With Troika Will Continue. By Market News International || October 23, 2012 at 17:30 GMT. || 0 comments || Add comment. ATHENS (MNI) – Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras Tuesday called for “as wider unity as possible in ... |
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Racist attacks in Greece hit "alarming" levels: UNHCR
ATHENS (Reuters) - Racially motivated attacks have risen to alarming levels in Greece and authorities are doing little to tackle the problem, the U.N. refugee agency said in a report on Tuesday.
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Greek junior government party blocks reforms deal
A junior partner in Greece's governing coalition has refused to lift its opposition to a new package of austerity measures, which bailout creditors have been demanding for months in exchange for more rescue loans.
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European financial transaction tax moves step closer
Brussels gives approval to idea of placing small levy on trades – opening way for FTT for 10 eurozone countries
A group of 10 eurozone countries moved a step closer to introducing a financial transaction tax when Brussels gave its approval to the idea of placing a small levy on trades.
Europe's tax commissioner, Algirdas Semeta, removed one of the final obstacles to a so-called Tobin tax becoming a reality when he announced there were no legal obstacles to the proposal. "I am delighted to see that 10 member states have indicated their willingness to participate in a common FTT along the lines of the commission's original proposal," José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Union executive, said.
"This tax can raise billions of euros of much-needed revenue for member states in these difficult times. This is about fairness: we need to ensure the costs of the crisis are shared by the financial sector instead of shouldered by ordinary citizens."
Although the commission originally hoped all 27 EU members would adopt an FTT, opposition to the idea was spearheaded by Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands. The 10 countries that have agreed to take part are Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Estonia is likely to follow once its parliament has been consulted.
The plan will now have to be accepted, via a qualified or enhanced majority vote, by the EU's members and get the support of the European parliament. The commission is proposing that the FTT should be levied at 0.1% on shares and bonds, and 0.01% on derivatives.
David Hillman, spokesman for the Robin Hood Tax campaign, said: "We are delighted that the European FTT is moving from rhetoric to reality and will ensure banks pay for the damage they have caused.
"This shows it is possible to put the needs of the public over the profits of a privileged few. It's unforgivable in this age of austerity that the UK government is turning down billions in additional revenue to protect the City's elite."
Matthew Fell, the CBI's director for competitive markets, said: "The Government has made absolutely the right decision not to adopt the European FTT in the UK. At a time when we should be completely focused on growth this tax could have the opposite effect by increasing the cost of capital for businesses. It would also fall heavily on investors, including people saving for their future through pensions and other financial products."
The Association for Financial Markets in Europe, a lobby group for financial firms, said: "FTT is regrettable and likely to serve as another brake on economic growth. In light of the negative impact that a financial transaction tax would have on jobs and growth in Europe, it is disappointing that the proposal is still being considered."
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Greek utility sale risks undermining EU energy goals
Greek utility sale risks undermining EU energy goals Reuters UK Depa award due in January. * Depa tender remains competitive - sources. * Gazprom pursuing interests in East Med region. By Oleg Vukmanovic. LONDON, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The sale of Greek gas firm Depa as part of European Union-backed state asset ... |
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Emir visit deepens Fatah-Hamas rift
 The Hindu | Emir visit deepens Fatah-Hamas rift The Hindu Secular Palestinian groups have slammed the visit of the Qatari Emir to Gaza for reinforcing divisions between the Islamist Hamas and Fatah, led by President Mahmoud Abbas. The Emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, who stepped into Gaza via Egypt ... Israel's premier vows to build in contested Jerusalem area Haniyeh: Qatari visit marks end of Gaza isolation Greek Gaza boat activists denounce Israeli action |
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Presidential debates: 10 datasets and charts you need to know
The US Presidential debates are over. So, what are the key datasets to help you understand the issues that were raised?
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The third Presidential debate last night is the last of this season. Over the three events, some issues keep rearing their heads - and some came out of nowhere. Here is some of the key data you need to follow them.
1. Unemployment | 2. The deficit | 3. The national debt | 4. China | 5. Tax cuts | 6. The auto industry | 7. Health care | 8. World cop | 9. Size of the Navy| 10. Effect of the debates
1. Unemployment
The issue surfaced in all the debates, with Mitt Romney saying in the second:
We have fewer people working today than we had when the president took office. If the — the unemployment rate was 7.8% when he took office, it's 7.8% now. But if you calculated that unemployment rate, taking back the people who dropped out of the workforce, it would be 10.7%
The latest US jobless figures show American unemployment has taken a drop to 7.8% - the same figure Barack Obama inherited in 2009. The US added another 114,000 jobs last month, and there are now 12.1 million unemployed people, down by 456,000. This is the first time it has gone below 8% in four years.
Latest unemployment claims data" shows that for the week of October 13, initial claims were 388,000, an increase of 46,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 342,000.
• Read more
2. The deficit
Barack Obama brought up his deficit reduction plan in the first debate:
I've put forward a specific $4 trillion deficit reduction plan…. And the way we do it is $2.50 for every cut, we ask for $1 of additional revenue
The Congressional Budget Office has measured the effect of the Obama plan on the deficit and says they would increase over time.
The deficit would decline further relative to GDP in subsequent years, reaching 2.5% by 2017, but then would increase again, reaching 3.0% of GDP in 2022
3. The national debt
Romney said in the second debate:
We've gone from $10 trillion of national debt, to $16 trillion of national debt. If the president were reelected, we'd go to almost $20 trillion of national debt. This puts us on a road to Greece.
The US debt has been growing for some time - and if you were one of the many people who gets it mixed up with the deficit, the difference is that the deficit is essentially the running overdraft, the debt is the national mortgage. US national debt has grown starkly, from $7.8tn in 2005 to busting through the US debt ceiling of $14.294tn last year - according to the day by day figures.
If it's any consolation to Americans, the UK's national debt is worse compared to the size of the economy, or GDP.
China
China surfaced in both the second and third debates as the candidates struggled with the role of the giant economy.
Romney said during the debate last night
We have an enormous trade imbalance with China, and it's worse this year than last year and it's worse last year than the year before
Although, as the chart above shows, the US has been running a trade deficit with China since 1985, covering the presidencies of Ronald Reagan, George Bush Sr, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama.
In the second, Romney accused the Chinese of driving down the value of their economy - the excellent Washington Post The Fix showed it had actually been rising against the dollar.
Tax cuts
Tax proposals came up repeatedly during the debates. In the first debate, Obama said:
Governor Romney's central economic plan calls for a $5 trillion tax cut — on top of the extension of the Bush tax cuts — that's another trillion dollars
So, what are the proposals? Research by the US Tax Policy Center has pulled together the two proposals. It says Romney's proposals would reduce tax revenue by $500bn in 2015. The Washington Post says of the plans
Romney also has said he will make his plan "revenue neutral" by eliminating tax loopholes and deductions, although he has not provided the details. The Tax Policy Center has analyzed the specifics of Romney's plan thus far released and concluded that the numbers aren't there to make it revenue neutral.
The auto industry
Although the bailouts of the auto industry are over, the issue is still a live one in the debates. Obama said of Romney in the second debate:
When Governor Romney said we should let Detroit go bankrupt, I said we're going to bet on American workers
To which Romney replied:
He said that I said we should take Detroit bankrupt. And that's right. My plan was to have the company go through bankruptcy like 7-Eleven did and Macy's and Continental Airlines and come out stronger. And I know he keeps saying, you want to take Detroit bankrupt. Well, the president took Detroit bankrupt. You took General Motors bankrupt. You took Chrysler bankrupt. So when you say that I wanted to take the auto industry bankrupt, you actually did
In 2012, the auto industry is looking healthier, with growth even on last year, according to this data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It shows employment up slightly on 2011, 53,400 on the year before.
However, hourly earnings for those in auto manufacturing haven't kept pace with inflation, down from $21.97 last year to $21.15 now.
If you look at the employment data by region it shows slight improvements on last year. But still not a complete revival.
Health care
US health care and 'Obama care' came up repeatedly too.
Said Obama in the second debate
And over the last two years, health care premiums have gone up — it's true — but they've gone up slower than any time in the last 50 years
So, how does the US compare? Although it doesn't have a national health service like the UK, it still has the highest health spending in the world. The US has the highest health spending in the world - equivalent to 17.9% of its gross domestic product (GDP), or $8,362 per person. And it's not all private - government spending is at $4,437 per person, only behind Luxembourg, Monaco and Norway.
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World cop
The US is still the world's policeman, which was the backdrop to yesterday's debate. Said Romney
Nowhere in the world is our influence greater than it was four years ago
Well, there are still a lot US boots on the ground around the globe.
We've extracted data from the US Department of Defense, which shows how the face of the US military abroad has changed since 2008. In 2008, Iraq was the biggest overseas deployment of US troops, now Afghanistan dominates. The numbers of personnel at home in the US gone up though, by 13.5% to 1,017,418, however the number deployed around the world has increased by 2.1% under Obama to 1,414,149.
• Explore the interactive map and download the data
Size of the Navy
How big is the US Navy? It's become an issue, with Romney saying:
Our Navy is smaller now than at any time since 1917
To which Obama replied:
You mentioned the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military's changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers, where planes land on them. We have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines
We extracted the data from the US Department of Defense archive and it shows that the Navy is smaller now than in 1917, with 285 vessels, compared to 342. But obviously that is all types of ships - and those types have changed over the century, from Battleships to submarines to aircraft carriers. That peak in 1945 is amphibious vessels for the D-day landings, for instance.
Effect of the debates
The received wisdom before the first debate was that they didn't make much difference to overall campaigns. No-one is arguing that now.
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Greece's Democratic Left, Socialists Reaffirm Objection To Labor Reforms
 International Business Times | Greece's Democratic Left, Socialists Reaffirm Objection To Labor Reforms Wall Street Journal ATHENS--Greece's junior coalition partners reaffirmed Tuesday that they will vote down the government's latest labor reforms, a move likely to discourage the country's European and international creditors from giving Athens the loans it needs to stay ... Greece Coalition Leader Says Previously Accepted Troika Demands ... Greece on edge over austerity Senior Merkel ally hints at more time for Greece |
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Rights groups warn of racist violence in Greece
Rights groups warn of racist violence in Greece NECN ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Rights groups warned on Tuesday they have been registering increasingly violent racist attacks on migrants in Greece, and say a culture of impunity for the attackers is exacerbating the problem. A network of 23 non-governmental ... |
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UPDATE 3-Qatar visit breaks Gaza ice, delights Hamas
 Telegraph.co.uk | UPDATE 3-Qatar visit breaks Gaza ice, delights Hamas Reuters Qatar breaks Gaza ice with first visit. * Emir calls for Hamas-Fatah reconciliation. * Hamas hails emir's arrival as end of Gaza blockade. * Israel astounded Qatar "takes sides" in Palestinian rift. By Nidal al-Mughrabi. GAZA, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The Emir of Qatar ... Emir visit deepens Fatah-Hamas rift Haniyeh: Qatari visit marks end of Gaza isolation Greek Gaza boat activists denounce Israeli action |
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Rights groups warn about racist violence, impunity for attackers, in Greece
ATHENS, Greece - Rights groups warned on Tuesday they have been registering increasingly violent racist attacks on migrants in Greece, and say a culture of impunity for the attackers is exacerbating the problem.
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Spanish Bonds Fall After Economy Shrinks as Greek Debt Tumbles
 Irish Times | Spanish Bonds Fall After Economy Shrinks as Greek Debt Tumbles Bloomberg Spain's government bonds fell for a third day after the central bank said gross domestic product shrank for a fifth quarter, harming the nation's ability to repay its debt. Spain's 10-year yields climbed the most in a week after the budget ministry said the deficit ... Spanish recession keeps tight grip: central bank Billionaire Ross Looks at Spanish Banks Spain's central bank says Q3 GDP shrank 0.4 pct |
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Brothel, funeral home bail out Greek soccer clubs
Brothel, funeral home bail out Greek soccer clubs Reuters ATHENS (Reuters) - A brothel and a funeral home have become the newest benefactors of two cash-strapped Greek soccer clubs struggling to survive the country's economic crisis. As Greece endures its worst slump since World War Two, thousands of ... Brothel sponsors Greek amateur soccer team Greek amateur football team gets through financial crisis by getting local ... |
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Haniyeh: Qatari visit marks end of Gaza isolation
 CTV News | Haniyeh: Qatari visit marks end of Gaza isolation Jerusalem Post The visit of the emir of Qatar ends the political and economic blockade on the Gaza Strip, Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh declared Tuesday. Haniyeh's declaration came during the inauguration of a new housing project in Khan Yunis together with the ... Greek Gaza boat activists denounce Israeli action Qatari Emir Cancels Speech in Gaza Stadium Emir of Qatar makes landmark visit to Gaza |
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Greek coalition partners refuse to back troika demands
 Business Recorder (blog) | Greek coalition partners refuse to back troika demands Reuters UK Evangelos Venizelos, head of the PASOK Socialists, also reiterated his opposition to the reforms and urged Samaras to tell European partners that Greek society could not handle another round of painful cuts. "We must not open new fronts like labour ... Greek Premier Ousts Lawmaker Who Opposed Austerity Package Greek coalition meets on cuts as debt payments loom Eurozone crisis live: Greek government meets to agree cuts package |
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FTSE drops after poor US corporate news and eurozone worries, but Arm surges
US earnings season continues to disappoint but chipmaker Arm beats forecasts again
Leading shares slumped again on increasing worries about economic growth, after a number of poor US corporate updates and further fears about the eurozone.
The FTSE 100 closed 85 points lower at 5797.91, a 1.44% decline, after 3M, Dupont, UPS and United Technologies all added to recent disappointing figures from Microsoft and Google, sending Wall Street sharply lower by the time London closed.
On top of that, Greece appeared no closer to resolving its budget deficit, a necessary step for its next bailout paymant, while Spain was hit by a downgrade of a number of its regions by Moody's. Ishaq Siddiqi at ETX Capital said:
The prominent theme emerging from the third quarter earnings so far, particularly for industrials, materials and resource sectors, is that the slowdown in the global economy, notably China, is eating away at the bottom line for major corporates in developed countries.
We have Facebook after the US close and again, markets are expecting an underwhelming release given that we still don't know how Facebook will monetize itself – reassurance by management will be needed to restore any confidence for Facebook, but perhaps markets are comfortable with weak numbers as the optimism around the company has faded sharply since the launch of its overpriced IPO before the summer.
One technology company to do well however was Arm, the UK chip designer. Its shares climbed 45.5p to 640p after better than expected results. Julian Yates at Investec said:
The 2012 outlook is in line with consensus but we would see modest upside risk. We see Arm as the stand-out tech play, and maintain our buy rating.
The only other gainer in the leading index was Experian, the credit information business, up 40p to £10.87 after it paid $1.5bn to take its stake in Brazilian business Serasa from 70% to 99.6%. The move comes five years after the company first bought into Serasa, and will be funded from existing bank loans. Robin Speakman at Shore Capital said:
This sum is a degree higher than we had anticipated, we had thought it would be closer to $1.2bn. But we note the continued strong performance of the business throughout the current year and its strong future prospects. The statement from Experian suggests that the transaction will be earnings enhancing for the current year to March 2013 and thereafter. With the rise in importance of data services to the global economy, and strong growth prospects in the developing world, we retain a buy stance on Experian.
With investors in a risk-off mood, and commodity prices lower on worries about a slowdown in Chinese growth, mining shares were among the biggest fallers. Kazakhmys closed 35p lower at 721.5p while Antofagasta fell 44p to £12.65.
A downturn in China was also blamed for a profit warning from luxury goods group Mulberry, down 314p to £10.06. Larger rival Burberry was hit by the Mulberry news, losing 38p to £11.34.
Lower down the market defence group Chemring - which makes flares and explosives - dropped 31.4p to 314.9p after it parted company with its chief executive, in the middle of a bid situation. US private equity group Carlyle has until 9 November to decide whether to make a formal offer, and analysts said a change at the top at Chemring could make a deal less likely. Guy Brown at Oriel Securities was less certain:
The move potentially flags that the deal is collapsing. It would appear odd to appoint a new chief executive with the belief the group is going to be taken over within a matter of weeks.
Trinity Mirror lost more than 10%, down 7.25p at 64.5p after the news that the Daily Mirror publisher was being sued over alleged phone hacking, the first move for damages against a company other than Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. Analyst Johnathan Barrett at N+1 Singer said:
The shares have been very strong and buoyed by an improved nationals advertising market and the likelihood of greater cost savings in 2013. The shares moved slightly above our target price yesterday although we note that on the expectation of a full 3p dividend or more there is still a small positive upside on a total return basis. The claims will weigh on the shares, in part because many had assumed the subject was fading away as an issue.
Elsewhere Irish drinks group C&C added 1.5% to €3.82 after buying US cider business Vermont for $305m. The move takes the company into the fast growing US market for ciders, and should help offset weakness in the UK. Sales of C&C's Magners brand fell 17% in the first half following the wet summer, but grew by 16% in the US. Vermont is the maker of Woodchuck, the largest domestic cider brand in the country.
C&C also reported a 2% decline in revenues in the six months to the end of August, and a 2.7% fall in operating profits to €65.6m. Analyst Wayne Brown at Canaccord Genuity issued a sell note, saying the company's core UK business was weakening, and it had paid too much for Vemont:
Whilst we appreciate the need to diversify away from the UK and republic of Ireland, the cost of doing this, is too high in our view. Our first glance suggests that not only is 20.8 times EBITDA too high, but the acquired business is going to require an increase in capital expenditure of $30m, and marketing costs are likely to rise from 2% of sales to a more normalised 10% as competition rises in the US. On the basis that the EBITDA contribution should be around $15m, this is offset by $2m-$3m of depreciation and around $8m of interest expense.
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