How the world sees Greece
 New York Times | Greek radical Tsipras is no working class hero Reuters Greek leftist leader vows to cancel Greek bailout * Tsipras running neck and neck in Sunday vote * Questions over his leadership skills remain By Dina Kyriakidou ATHENS, June 13 (Reuters) - Alexis Tsipras, the radical Greek leftist who wants to cancel ... The Fear Factor in Greek Elections Greek conservatives attack leftist rivals before Sunday vote French president warns Greeks over euro |
 Telegraph.co.uk | Valérie Trierweiler should 'keep to her place', says French prime minister Telegraph.co.uk France's prime minister has warned Francois Hollande's girlfriend Valérie Trierweiler to "keep to her place" after she backed his former partner's rival in parliamentary elections, causing a major political headache for the President. Greece Canceling Bailout Would Breach Trust, Hollande Says French president's love-life 'psychodrama' rivals his predecessor's Greece Abandoning Bailout Terms Would Be Seen as Breakaway From Euro -Hollande |
Greece's Conservatives Open to Forming Coalition Government NASDAQ ATHENS--The leader of Greece's main conservative party said Wednesday he is open to teaming up with other pro-bailout political groups in an effort to end the country's political deadlock and pledged to seek softer terms for Athen's painful austerity ... |
 Bloomberg | Greece's Conservatives Open to Forming Coalition Govt Wall Street Journal By Stelios Bouras ATHENS--The leader of Greece's main conservative party said Wednesday he is open to teaming up with other pro-bailout political groups in an effort to end the country's political deadlock and pledged to seek softer terms for Athen's ... Conservatives: Greece must form govt this time Tsipras Sees Greece in Euro Even After Repealing Austerity Tsipras Expects Greece to Stay in Euro After Repeal of Austerity |
 Globe and Mail | Hollande rocked by feisty French first lady's tweet Reuters * Tweet causes unexpected headache for Hollande * Polls shows Royal could lose election (Updates with poll and Falorni comment) By Alexandria Sage PARIS, June 13 (Reuters) - A tweet by France's first lady in support of an election rival of President ... France aghast at tweet by French leader's partner France's Hollande warns Greece on euro exit A tweet is worth a thousand headlines: French 'first lady' rakes them in after ... |
Greece's Tsipras Moderates Call to Abolish Ship Owner Tax Breaks BusinessWeek By Eleni Chrepa on June 13, 2012 Greece's Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras asked Greek ship owners to agree tax policy with government, moderating his pledge to abolish tax breaks for ship owners given in a speech on June 1. |
Many Greeks want the euro but reject austerity, though they would be foolish to give New Democracy and Pasok another chance
Agonising decisions have been part of Greek culture since Atropos, one of the three mythological Fates, began pondering how to cut the thread of life and send people to their deaths. On Sunday, Greeks will go to the polls knowing their choices could slice Greece's ties with its lenders and propel the country to its economic demise.
For some the choice on 17 June is a simple one: tough it out in the euro and wait for the economy to recover or risk it all on a potentially disastrous return to the drachma. But even with public coffers due to empty by mid-July unless cash is injected from a new loan instalment, many Greeks refuse to see Sunday's vote this way. An opinion poll for Kathimerini newspaper suggested that one in two Greeks want the euro but also reject the austerity the eurozone and IMF are demanding.
This appears to be the big contradiction at the heart of these elections but the incongruity has more to do with the tumultuous transition Greece is going through than a lack of awareness about the sacrifices or changes needed to survive this crisis. Greece is at a point in its history where its economic, social and political models are broken. The debt crisis that erupted in 2009 exposed the decrepit state of the country's structures. A fiscal adjustment programme that was poorly communicated and implemented at a national and European level put paid to hopes of renewal.
Under the guardianship of the EU and IMF, a government led by the centre-left Pasok and then a coalition administration that included the centre-right New Democracy wilfully ignored most opportunities to conduct vital structural reforms, such as the overhaul of a woefully inefficient public administration. These two parties also passed up chances to rein in public spending and slash waste, relying instead on repeated tax hikes to bring down the public deficit. For an economy already in recession from 2008, this proved a lethal combination. Greece's economic downturn has already lasted longer than the Great Depression. Unemployment, currently at 22%, is set to overtake the peak of 25% in the US in 1933.
As they sink into this economic morass, Greeks are being advised to make sure New Democracy, which wants to renegotiate the loan terms, beats leftist Syriza, which intends to discard the austerity measures. This would allow New Democracy and Pasok, likely to come a distant third, to form the basis of a new coalition government to keep Greece in the euro. But the idea of the responsible vote going to two parties that failed to show responsibility is also a contradiction.
New Democracy and Pasok have ruled Greece since 1974 and carry the largest share of blame for the country's failed economy and self-serving political system. Since the 1990s they've promised reforms to make Greece's economy more competitive and its society fairer but have largely failed to deliver. During this crisis they displayed fear of upsetting their strongholds in the public sector and cosy relationships with numerous private sector groups . So, logic would dictate that if Greeks are genuinely in favour of reform – and opinion polls have consistently shown wide support for many of the structural changes needed – they would be foolish to give these two parties another chance.
The contradictions do not end there. In its bid to complete an unlikely ascent to power, Syriza hardly provides voters with a more reliable choice. At times it has obfuscated its message on the bailout but Syriza's most impressive sleight of hand has been its attempt to appeal to incompatible constituencies. In the inconclusive elections on 6 May, it was the most popular party among civil servants – the group that has probably benefited most from four decades of deeply flawed governance – but it also ranked first among Greece's unemployed and young people – the groups that have suffered most from the inefficiency and inequity this system bred. Syriza promises a new start but it also gives the impression that little will change in Greece's problematic public sector.
Some Greeks will agonise over these paradoxes right up to the last minute.
At the end of it all, though, there may be one contradiction they are unlikely to resolve. Regardless of who Greeks vote for on Sunday, the demands from the eurozone for an austerity programme that none of the parties believe in any more, at least in its current form, will remain. In 1981, Greece's partners allowed it to join what is today termed a "union" in the hope it would nurture a fledgling democracy deeply scarred by years of civil war, divisive politics and military rule. But from next week, Greece could find its democratic process counting for very little in its struggle to stay in a eurozone that is far from united. Atropos and her shears no longer reside in Greece; fate is now decided elsewhere.
• Nick Malkoutzis is the deputy editor of Kathimerini English Edition and blogs at Inside Greece.
 Kansas City Star | Greek Election a Referendum on Its Eurozone Membership Voice of America (blog) The Greek government has piled up a mountain of debt over the years, but its European neighbors and the International Monetary Fund have twice bailed out the country, sending it billions of dollars in the last two years. Greek conservative leader insists new govt must be formed after country's June ... Next Greek Leaders Face Olympian Hurdles Greek radical leftist rejects call for unity govt |
 BBC News | Will Europe let the Greek political centre fall? BBC News With three days of campaigning left, what's important in the Greek election is what has not happened. There has been no lifeline thrown to Antonis Samaras, leader of the conservative New Democracy (ND) party, from Brussels. Conservatives: Greece must form govt this time Tsipras Parlays Politics of Defiance Into Battle for Euro |
Greek banks see outflows pickup as election nears -bankers Reuters (Adds details) ATHENS, June 13 (Reuters) - Greek banks have seen a marked increase in the pace of bank withdrawals as a June 17 general election nears and fears grow that Greece could be forced out of the euro, senior bankers said on Wednesday. |
LONDON (Reuters) - Europe may need to sacrifice Greece's membership of its single currency bloc in order to convince Germany to put in more money to save the euro, Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne suggested in remarks certain to enrage euro zone leaders. As the EU's biggest economy and largest contributor, Germany holds the key to how the bloc can rescue its troubled, smaller economies and whether Europe is able to agree on a banking union to end 2-1/2 years of debt turmoil. ...
 CNBC.com | UK's Osborne says Greece may have to quit euro Reuters LONDON, June 13 (Reuters) - Europe may need to sacrifice Greece's membership of its single currency bloc in order to convince Germany to put in more money to save the euro, Britain's finance minister George Osborne suggested in remarks certain to ... We Will Keep Greece in the Euro Zone: Leftists Greek Syriza Leader Says Europe Cannot Afford To Let Greece Fail Greece 'will exit' eurozone after election |
 Independent Online | FOREX-Euro steady, but vulnerable to Italian and Greek woes Reuters IMPLIED VOLATILITY JUMPS Concerns over the outcome of Greek elections at the weekend, where parties opposing and supporting harsh austerity measures imposed by the country's international lenders are neck and neck in public opinion polls, ... Euro inches down before Italian debt sale, Greek vote Ex-Greek PM: Euro exit would be "catastrophic" EU admits to looking into Greek euro exit |
Analysts say there is the prospect of a counter bid despite Cairn paying a hefty premium
As markets continue to - cautiously - head higher ahead of an Italian bond auction and Greece's election this weekend, there are signs of life in the takeover world.
Cairn Energy has announced the surprise £414m purchase of North Sea oil company Nautical Petroleum, its second acquisition in the region as it tries to spread the risk of its Greenland projects.
The company is paying 450p for each Nautical share, pushing its target's shares 162.25p higher to 460p. Cairn itself is up 2.4p at 294.3p.
After struggling in Greenland and selling the bulk of its Indian business to Vedanta Resources, Cairn is attempting to build up an oil producing business, and to this end bought Agora Oil and Gas in April. Simon Thomson, Cairn chief executive, said:
This acquisition is another step towards building a balanced portfolio of transformational exploration, appraisal and development assets, and complements our recent acquisition of Agora to help build a platform in North West Europe.
Cairn has acceptances representing 27.25% of Nautical, but despite paying a hefty premium, analysts believe a rival bid cannot be ruled out. Nick Copeman of Oriel Securities said:
Cairn is clearly attracted to the Catcher licence and the prospective of further reserves and resource increases post further exploration and appraisal. It also gives Cairn a 25% stake in the Kraken development project, 6% in the Mariner oil field and a 100% (Enquest 50% option) in the Ketos prospect.
We had a risked net asset value for Nautical of 435p a share, so we don't see Cairn as overpaying and, if anything, the price may leave the door open for a counter offer.
However Andrew Whittock at Liberum Capital said that Cairn would have to back up its reasons for paying the price it has come up with:
This is a surprise move and Cairn will need to justify premium paid for what looks like a package of developments, rather than exploration. It shows industry sees value in North Sea players – should be good news for Enquest and (less so) Premier Oil.
Overall the FTSE 100 is up 22.05 points at 5495.79, despite investors' continuing caution about the eurozone. Hopes of central bank intervention helped lift sentiment. Markus Huber at ETX Capital said:
Continuing general optimism that central banks around the world not only in Europe but in the US and China too will once again come to the rescue soon is providing ongoing support and stability to European equity markets in early trading today.
While none of the major central banks is necessarily eager to rush into any kind of intervention like cutting rates or purchasing bonds as this might be seen as a panic reaction, which could easily have the opposite of the desired effect, in the end with the global economic outlook deteriorating fast and periphery bond yields continue to surge there might be soon no other choice left then to act in a swift and decisive manner before the situation gets even more out of control.
The index was helped by the fact that, for a change on a Wednesday, no FTSE 100 company was trading ex-dividend.
J Sainsbury was a notable faller, down 7.3p at 283.8p after its first quarter sales came in below expectations, despite a boost from the Jubilee celebrations. Freddie George at Seymour Pierce said:
The first quarter trading to 9 June, which includes the bumper Diamond Jubilee week, was positive but weaker than market expectations. Total sales were up by 3.6%, including like for like growth of 1.4% against a consensus, we believe of over 2%.
Rolling coverage of all today's political developments as they happen, including PMQs and the Commons debate on Jeremy Hunt
Here's some Twitter comment on today's vote.
From Tory MP Gavin Barwell
Lib Dem MPs should think about precedent they're setting today. What happens if Con MPs abstain next time Labour target a Lib Dem Minister?
— Gavin Barwell MP (@GavinBarwellMP) June 13, 2012
From the Guardian's Patrick Wintour
Lib Dems say they cannot vote with Labour because they lied about the Iraq war but Labour is led by a leader that says he opposed the war.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 13, 2012
Lib Dems justify abstention saying the vote will make no difference to PM's decision and precedent is to abstain when coalition disagrees.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 13, 2012
Lib Dems not confirming BBC report that Cameron told Clegg why are you bothering with Leveson, no one cares.
— Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) June 13, 2012
From the BBC's Norman Smith
Tory MPs warning of "pay back" forwhat they say is Clegg treachery over Hunt by scuppering Lords reform
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 13, 2012
Tory MPs urging Cameron to take a stand against Clegg..."show who's boss"
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 13, 2012
Revenge for Hunt ?? Tory MPssay there could be a vote on Lords reform before recess (programme motion) which cd scupper bill
— norman smith (@BBCNormanS) June 13, 2012
From PoliticsHome's Paul Waugh
The Tory MP (@JTomlinsonMP) who's been hauled back frm honeymoon for Hunt vote, has a sense of humour. Just tweeted link to his wedding pix.
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 13, 2012
Tory @GlynDaviesMP is also missing a funeral cos of Hunt vote. As he Tweeted: "I utterly dislike the Lib Dems.." (via @colinko)
— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) June 13, 2012
From Alex Belardinelli, an aide to Ed Balls
We think it should happen, but we're not going to vote for it - Jo Swinson explains how Lib Dems do their politics
— Alex Belardinelli (@abelardinelli) June 13, 2012
Stress testing is normally associated with banks, but today the coalition is going to experience some stress testing of its own when the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats split in a vote on whether there should be an investigation into whether Jeremy Hunt broke the ministerial code. As Patrick Wintour reports in the Guardian, today's debate will mark one of the most serious breaches of coalition unity since 2010. There's no chance that the Labour motion, calling for Hunt to be investigated by the prime minister's independent adviser on ministers' interests, will get passed. But, at this stage, it is not clear quite how much damage the Lib Dems will do to coalition unity by refusing to vote to defend Hunt? Will it be seen as a polite "agreement to differ"? Or will it be remembered as an act of treachery that will hasten the moment when the coaliton collapses?
In public comments this morning both sides have been seeking to play down the significance of the split. Grant Shapps, the Conservative housing minister, told the Today programme that the Lib Dem position was just a "reminder that we have different perspectives on things".
It's a reminder that this is two parties that have come together in the national interest to sort out these huge debt problems ... The important thing is that we continue to focus on the big picture, on avoiding getting into the situation of Spain or Greece.
And Don Foster, a Lib Dem backbencher, told the same programme that the debate did not matter much anyway because David Cameron had decided not to have an inquiry into Hunt.
It's not going to make a blind bit of difference, the prime minister's already made his mind up on the issue ... The best way Nick Clegg can make clear what he believes about this is to do what he has already done. He doesn't endorse the position the prime minister's made not to refer this to the independent adviser, it's as simple as that.
But is it really as good tempered as this? I'll be covering the debate in detail, and I'll be particularly interested in what Tory MPs have to say about the stance of their Lib Dem colleagues.
Here's the full agenda for the day.
9.30am: Tim Loughton, the children's minister, unveils plans to enshrine in law the rights of both divorced fathers and mothers to see their children.
10am: Nick Clegg gives evidence to the Leveson inquiry. In the afternoon Alex Salmond will give evidence.
12pm: David Cameron and Nick Clegg clash at PMQs.
12.30pm: The Jeremy Hunt debate begins. It should go on until about 4pm.
As usual, I'll be covering all the breaking political news, as well as looking at the papers and bringing you the best politics from the web. I'll post a summary before PMQs and another in the afternoon.
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